I would bet the flop HU and check back turn maybe. That way it looks plausible you have an A and don't freeroll all the hands that can catch up.

AP...I like a raise here on the river if V is indeed TAG as you describe. Raise to like 100ish.

Only problem here is stereotype problems. You might be seen as more aggro than you are. And villain might be more sticky than you think. IME ME guys are usually pretty LP / LAG but it's a stereotype and of course many exceptions exist.

People say this...and then also say that winning more than 10BB/hr at 1/3 is close to impossible. Good players who ALSO take the time and effort to play balanced, tricky, FPS whatever you want to call it can break 15BB/hr at 1/2 and 1/3 but people don't believe it because they insist playing balanced is a waste of time.

Try it..you might realize you were wrong.

As far as bluffing this river goes. I would bet that based on the betting pattern you could bluff raise this river almost without any regards to the actual board cards and show a profit. It doesnt matter what youre repping. They can rarely call a river raise or they wouldnt have bet this way in the first place.

I think it's important to have a good balanced strategy as your baseline and deviate as needed. it's important to understand the reasoning behind a gto line and then come up with what makes sense as an exploitative line. To completely disregard one or the other is really missing out.

shorn, you said bet the flop otherwise any competent villain will make my life hell. OK let's say I do that. Then what happens when I check back the flop? Any competent villain will be able to get away with murder because I can't even have middle pair. And no I will have plenty of Ax hands I check back. This isn't necessarily about trying to emulate the GTO strategy upswing teaches. Sort of but not really. This is about picking hands that aren't good enough to get three streets (or even two in this case) and doing other things with it such as picking off bluffs or pot control. And also so I don't get murdered by a competent villain when I check back only air and very weak pairs.

I think being Asian is very relevant. Was just talking to a live pro about it today. It sounds silly but when people are on the fence between a call and fold (which when you see how often people tank is quite often), being Asian will make that decision a call more often than not. So yes, based on my previous position on this and the responses ITT, I think this is a good spot. But I definitely need to pick my spots much more carefully in the future than if I was a white guy. Going for extra extra thin value is probably how being Asian will make me more money. Sounds silly, but it's reality.

Hopefully there will be no more "1/3 possibly spewy raise" threads from me.

What make you think the villain is playing a balanced poker strategy? Yeah, I know that you were talking about the OP. But you need to think about what the villain is doing, not what Hero is doing. As an unknown, Mike Starr can be more successful in bluffing because (I believe) he is an older white guy. He's going to be pooled with a bunch of players that never bluff on the river. The stereotype of an Asian is that they gamble and bluff more than the average player. The OP is going to get called more.

If you know a villain is always going to throw scissors, an unbalanced strategy of throwing rock is going to win more money than having a balanced strategy. DUCY?

An exploitative type of play imo.

Advocating exploitation rather than optimal.

Balancing to me implies optimal.

shorn is stating more or less that the river bluff you advocate is -EV and does not represent a situation that cannot be exploited by a bluff. You disagree. Btw I think you are more likely to be correct.

Update: As a math problem, for arguments sake let's take your $50 EV number for the bluff as being correct. Certainly there is a threshold of probability of having the best hand where just calling is a better play. What is the threshold ? If H wins the pot 75% of the time with a call in this situation given the pot size and pot odds being offered then calling is clearly a better play

Id say there s very little chance that hero has the best hand 75% of the time.
I doubt its more than 25%

You're right about that. Villain tanked for a full minute before folding. Must of had at least a stronger jack.

Anyways still really curious what shorn has to say about justifying having nothing but hands that can't beat middle pair when we check back flop.

Flop check is fine obviously.

I like the bluff raise. Agree with Mike that the bet sizing is a clear indication of weakness and a probable intention to fold to a raise. Yes you don't rep much but so what? I bet if the villain had written out the hand from his perspective the entire thread would be full of people going 'LOL snap fold river'.

Agreed. Hero has the best hand < 5% of the time here. Ppl just don’t bluff for 1/3 pot unless they put you on a draw that missed.

This is very well put.

V obviously isn't playing a balanced strategy. I am thinking of what V is doing and what his range is on the river. This is more important than how V potentially views asians.

Mike Starr picks spots where his range is strong and his opponent is weak, and probably does it at an appropriate frequency based on ranges. I suspect that has more to do with his bluffing success than being "an older white guy." Whether OP is asian pales in comparison to how well he ranges and picks up on exploits.

The "bluff less because you're asian" argument is based on your own opinion on asians and stereotypes. This isn't some SJW rant on the topic of asian stereotypes, it's completely about you not knowing what a given V thinks about asians. Worry about your range and V's range and forget that you're asian. That OP is agreeing with you is pretty funny considering he obviously doesn't mind running bluffs, maybe that's why people on the fence decide to call? OP how do you know it is because you're asian?

That's the thing, you don't know and you're just guessing OP is getting looked up because he's asian. OP is obviously not averse to bluffing.

Geez! How friggin' old do you guys think I am? I play mostly during the daytime where Im often the youngest guy at the table.

One of the things I'm not completely sold on in this hand is that the 1/3 PSB on the river is weak. Villain has seen us weak ass scared check back the flop so it really looks like we don't have an Ace, and he could easily have AK/AQ/AJ/AT and is just making sure he gets paid off against our weak piece of cheese. I mean, what would you guys bet in this spot with AK/AQ/AJ/AT given the way the hand was played; everyone's bombing the river against what looks like a weak hand?

GcluelessNLnoobG

$55. As the V, I would have 3-bet AQs+ pre.

As the Hero, I also sometimes check AQ+ on this flop.