Wanted to post this as I certainly have a leak due to sizing my river bets too small during a run hot sesh.

1-3 No Limit Daytime

V is a rec whale in the game for 2.5k (down around 1.5k) who sat down in a great mood announcing he was on a 34k upswing on slots over the past few months and that his first buyin was on the house. Four hours into the session he’s tilted and playing “angry”, but still having a good time (smiling, laughing, singing, etc.). I’ve been as friendly to him as I have to anyone, but I’m not talking much.

- His preflop limping range is roughly bottom 50%. His preflop opening range is roughly top 50%. His preflop calling range is probably between 5%-75%. I assume he would 3 bet the top 5%...

- V’s opinion of Hero is “fortress”. The guy literally labeled everyone at the table as either “good player”, “tight”, or “fortress” in a rant about lack of action. Myself and a 2-time bracelet winner, semi-retired pro were labeled fortress. Everyone else was labeled tight with the exception of one bad reg who was losing every hand he played. He labeled the bad reg “good player”. Go figure. Basically, his labeling system indicates who he thinks he has a chance to get money from. I’m not that guy (bummer).

Hero hasn’t played with V before. My main sesh goal is to keep variance low and book a W for the mental game benefit. I bought in for 200 and played the top 10% of hands only having to show down twice in four hrs, quad tens and quad queens. Running hot.

Relevant hand between Hero and V earlier in the sesh:
-Hero has AQ. 3 or 4 ways to a flop after a raise. Flop QQQ. Everyone checks. Turn 5? I check/call V’s 25. Everyone else folds. River K. V makes it 75. Hero makes it 275. V tank calls with a king in his hand.

OTTH

800 Effective

Double straddle on this particular hand. V has 12 in front of him being UTG+1. One limp to Hero holding QQ. Hero makes it 45 to go. Villain tank calls as he’s listening to a rant from a bad reg sitting UTG about how he won’t even look at his cards as he feels he doesn’t have a chance when I raise.

(105) Flop J73
Check, check
(105) Turn 5
V bets 25, Hero calls
(155) River Q
V checks, Hero?


My main goal with this post is to iron out the issues I have with failing to get river value during a run hot sesh. So, river sizing comments are most appreciated; however, I totally respect you’re opinions and would be open to comments about other lines. In a preemptive response I’ll say...nvrmd...fire away.

Comments are appreciated. Thanks.

You are missing value on earlier streets

2/5 to 2/3 pot otf. What are you waiting for?

I figured I could only get value on two streets against his range. His 25 into 105 indicates to me that while he may very well call a turn raise he probably won’t call a big river bet.

Maybe the flop bet, check turn, bet river is better...but don’t we do that all the f’n time.

It seems like you are fairly conservative against this V. Anything driving that?

Yea, my main sesh goal as stated.

I pushed insanely small edges from Oct of last year through Dec...and ran f’n terrible. This year I have been building bigger edges for mental game wellness.

Raise bigger pf with the limper and the whale.

And why in the holy fack are you checking back this flop?

This is an easy 2/3 to 1.1 pot bet.

It's hard to get value in the river when you got none on the flop or turn.

'Fortress' moniker is hilarious. Really dislike the flop checkback, your hand is a bit vulnerable and there is way too much value/spew from opponent to not start the extraction.

Normally bomb river is correct but could go 75 if villain seems weak.

So this is a pretty standard 3-street hand on good runouts, even against good players. You are against a guy who is in a 1/3 game for $2.5k and you’re checking flop because you think you can’t go three streets? This is the issue you need to address. Bet like $80 on the flop.

Ok then. That’s fairly unanimous and clear. I need to bet flop.

Although I have only showed f’n quads the whole sesh (once against V), V calls me a fortress, V almost folded to me in an earlier hand on a value bet when he had a monster, V almost folded this hand pre, V got a pep talk from dude to his right about how it’s a wonderful idea to fold to my bets right before this very f’n flop,...I need to bet flop.

Ok, ok,...I appreciate the advice. I just need some time to absorb it. I’m not use to people telling me wtf to do, haha.


Is there no merit in discussing the river?

Dear god don't even worry about the river. Every other street is more important and played worse. As people have said it's one of the easiest 3 barrel hands that ever existed. Pre is also way too small.

Pre you can make it 100 and say free straddle and get called. 45 is way too small.

And seriously what browni said. You're checking vs a guy on a life heater who hates you and is in for 2.5k in a 1/3 game on a drawy board with an overpair.

Lol river. You've managed to get 2 big blinds or straddles whatever in before the river.

Oh, don’t worry I will work it into my brain that everyone else is right.

Do note, however, there are many other outcomes that could have occurred with a flop check. A handful of which are quite valuable. I mean there is some merit in checking the flop.

I’m just pointing out that your comment isolates an instance as opposed to a distribution.

Nope

Okay, well, you...um, I’m not so sure about (no offense).

But as for you other guys I do totally agree. V knowingly will call down. He just simply does not come to a casino to fold. I made an error. Instead of viewing his prior behavior as indication he may get away from the hand I should have been informed he simply cannot.

You guys are completely correct.

Thanks for the input.

**** yea! Learning is great!!!

Sarcasm?

The people that replied to you in this thread easily have over 10k hours of cumulative experience. Areevaderchi comes off as a bit of an ass sometimes but he gives good advice. It's completely up to you to dismiss us and stick with your own decision if you think you have a better understanding of the situation, but then I'm not sure why you asked for advice in the first place.

It's really not surprising villain thinks you're a fortress when you play hands like this. Instead of slow-playing strong but vulnerable hands just make sure you have enough bluffs so that they're making a mistake to fold too much vs you.

?? No, no sarcasm? You’re either trolling me or you’ve been trolled too much.

I have over 10k hours of experience too in various US markets...

I probably played against you if my social engineering is correct...and yes, in that session I trolled the whole table. One guy figured it out the next day before the tourney, laughing it off. Anyway...I’m not trolling on the net. I might troll you face to face though on the felt.

Anyway, you post good. Thanks.

I’m not at all disappointed in my line, but I do agree that betting the flop is better. One thing I can’t convey on the forum is my feel for the situation in real time and how I let that alter my play. That said, if I were in the situation again I may play it the exact same way.

I posted to reinforce the idea that I should get more value in sessions that I’m running hot in. I specially asked about river sizing. I fielded all comments about other topics to be discussion oriented

That’s great the dude posts good! He did however say “nope” incorrectly in regards to a statistical way of viewing a particular matter. I didn’t say he was an ass, you did.

Feel free to answer to the river sizing question.

Know going forward: I don’t play troll on the net.

Well, I guess the flop play has been adequately covered

On the river I prefer a polarized bet here. V has led the turn in a probing manner and has made something in all likelihood. He may be checking to set up a check raise. So I’d probably make a psb hoping he plays back at us. We’re seriously underrepresented here. He might think we have some bluffs and missed draws as most everything has bricked. Even if he just has a bluff catcher we would offer him 2-1 on a call.

What are the chances someone else raises and we can overlimp in to reraise? Will this guy call a huge 1/8th raise preflop? He doesn't a preflop option if limped to him, right? These are the things I would be considering preflop. Our $45 raise gives him 24:1 IO, which even OOP ain't bad considering our hand is face up (right?) and the SPR will be small enough where he can make us play for stacks postflop with 3 reasonable bets (so I'm not a huge fan of our preflop result).

I probably lean to a cbet with this somewhat vulnerable overpair on a drawy board. While I understand / am cool with pot controlling in this spot, I'd more lean to it with a less vulnerable hand (like AA).

As played I'm fine with continuing to underrep on the turn and let him barrel whatever into us.

I mainly shove the river here. Yes, it's a stupid huge overbet and we have a fortress image. But it hardly ever has to get paid off to be the most EV move overall. And dude is a whale.

ETA: I don't hate the overall line as much as others. It's unclear to me exactly how the whale has lost his money, and if it's calling 4 straight streets worth of betting versus the other fortress when he has an obvious overpair, ok, then more argument for 4 streets of value. But otherwise, I'm fairly cool with planning on just 2 postflop streets having not given ourselves a comfortable commitment spot (albeit preferring to cbet the flop but not hating on a check back at all, especially with our fortress image).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Underrepped Seriously...great point. Very good point...V could have totally been doing that (trying to set me up).

I think the chances someone else raises pre are high even as I was on the button. Specifically, the small blind or UTG. No way in hell the big blind raises or even plays this hand unless he has JJ+. V would absolutely note my limp and gladly check his option with a much larger chunk of his range than had I not been in the hand. V has been fairly timid with myself and the other fortress. UTG runs from my raises but would love to get me to fold a limp by shipping (he was short-stacked).

I guess my preflop play was intentionally “bad“ considering my main sesh goal as stated in the OP. I know everyone loves to comment on lines that maximize earnings, but for me that’s not a realistic goal. Like I replied to one poster, I pushed tiny edges for three months and ran bad. I’m sorta f’d at the moment mentally and am only playing poker half as often as I did last year. I could have turned this session into an all-in fest had I felt like it and there would be no reason to even post this hand as it would not have existed in the way it played out.

I’m super happy that you’re into my 2 post flop streets for value reasoning! Unfortunately, the guy put out what is likely a timid (tiny) bet on the turn (maybe a tricky set up like Smoon mentioned though)...

Due to the fact he almost folded pre I give him absolutely no pairs, Ax’s, connectors, or suited hands. So, I really don’t feel my queens (one club) are all that vulnerable as everyone is mentioning, but I did agree with everyone last night that betting the flop is better (it’s amazing what a shower can do). I really don’t want to fight the flop argument anymore. I agree with everyone.

Sigh, your river comment is why I came. I’m surprised that I’m the only one it seems that sucks at getting value when running hot.

Given we have three river comments as widely diff as they are (half pot, pot, all in), I feel it is my fault for not communicating more about how V has lost his money as you’ve pointed out as this seems to be key in nailing the appropriate river bet sizing. Also, this is pleasant to think about and I will do so away from the forum as I see it being a very helpful exercise.

And thanks GG for posting in my thread! You’re my favorite poster!!! Hell yea!!

Want some nude pics or something? Jk