Asian villain = never folding AA

You're over thinking people's responses to this. I'm not saying "oh we'll, let's just shovel the rest of the money in". The suggestions that we shove INCLUDE the analysis that $109 into $490 only needs to be good about 20% of the time.

Look at it from the Vs perspective, if he decides to call us on the river, he's also most likely *shrug* shoving since there's so little money left after he calls (it's the way they think).

I do think that we screwed up the hand on earlier streets which got us into this spot.

1. You're probably correct. However, any poster suggesting this must also then offer up a Stoved range in which we are good 20% of the time, like you said. Nobody has done that - everyone (to the point of my reply) stopped at "it's only $109 more."

2. In my experience, very few villains "shrug shove" on the river. The majority of players I play against are passive showdown monkeys who are desperate to flip over their hands and see if they win.

Most V's with a made hand are also shoving river themselves to avoid hero checking behind with an AK/KQ type hand too.

Board: Ks Jh 8d 2c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.333% 58.33% 00.00% 14 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 41.667% 41.67% 00.00% 10 0.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, KJs, QTs, J8s, T9s, AKo }


Even removing the missed straight draws still leaves 37.5%:

Board: Ks Jh 8d 2c 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.500% 37.50% 00.00% 6 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 62.500% 62.50% 00.00% 10 0.00 { JJ, 88, AKs, KJs, J8s, AKo }

1) That's an awfully high bar for every post. There are a lot of use that have a lot of experience and feel with these things that don't have stove handy when we post. (Like right now.)

I agree with Electrode on 88, KJ, QT, T9 being in his range on the turn, but I'd also include 1 combo of AK, 1 of JJ (maybe a half a combo), KQ, and some KT. Don't see the river action with QT or T9, but KQ and KT fits.


2) That is not my experience. Especially after the villain tanks as in OP. When they get themselves into a spot like this where the pot is huge compared to the money left behind, they have a *very* small flat calling range, it's either fold or ship.


The problem with the hand is the sizing on all post-flop streets. I'd bet the flop and turn a bit bigger, which makes the river action trivial. OR I'd check behind on a street if I didn't think that a single pair was ever good here (V dependent).

Edit: Thanks for the stove work wj94, looks like an even clearer call than I thought.

My main concern with this thread is not the actual range, it is the thought process behind developing our decision to call/fold. The call or fold itself is debatable so idc which side of the fence people fall on.

That being said, you forgot to include any offsuit combos and KK in yours, which is why it's so heavily skewed towards calling. This hand pretty much hinges on an assessment of how frequently villain will shove with AK.

I don't think V calls $26 preflop with any offsuit combos which is why I left them out. KK is almost always 3betting preflop out of position and donking or check/raising the turn, so I didn't include that either. Adding the offsuit combos would make it an even more clear call.

FWIW, I was joking about villain's misreading their hands this amount of the time. In the end, I just think we've committed ourselves with the turn/river bets and are simply getting too good of odds to fold at this point.

The few bits of information that OP gave us indicate that villain had previously played very passively with AA by calling pre. KK should be in there.

Adding offsuit combos of KJ, J8, or K8 would make it a clearer call? How so?

Again, I think this is marginal fold but a call is very reasonable. I suppose I'd call this the opposite of a thin value bet - a "thin fold."

Does V ever call a straddle UTG and then call a $26 preflop raise with KJo, J8o, or K8o, and then not raise the flop or turn? If he does, I would immediately label him as awful and abuse him for the rest of the night. Adding the offsuit straight draws to KJo would show better equity for AA. I don't think he ever calls $26 with K8o or J8o if he's playing AA passively.

Checking back the turn would be really bad. Bigger on turn, shove river

As played i'm folding river, imo youre ahead <14% of the time....In general, just think how often in a live game you see a check raise on the river as a bluff (or a check raise without a nutted hand)

In this situation im pretty sure villain is somewhat aware he has little to no fold equity given the fact you bet three streets and have only a small amount to call off

i also think checking back the turn would have been a mistake against this player. his bluff frequency had been very low, nonexistent actually, which makes me think longer about folding now that i would have normally.

i do agree about betting more on the turn (b/f to CRAI). if he had one of the OESD possible i didnt think he was going to fire into me on the river.

to me his range now was pretty much kj or 88 or maybe some random bluff, i dont think he ever has kk or jj, id also discount j8 since he really hadnt show down trashy hands and i think he would have at least been a little worried about being beat with 2nd n 3rd pair. k4 would make some sense if he had shown down garbage in the past as well.

i do think checking the river was an option if i thought i was being trapped since i was getting 3 streets from very little anyways (pretty much kq or k10).

Villain is probably check raise bluffing here about 0.000001% of the time. The other 100% of the time, he has two pair plus.

I think this should be an easy fold.