Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Before I even read the HH, I caught "rate my bluff" and "hero has never played with villain before". I'm grunching, but at this point I'm rating it low (i.e. don't bluff unknowns).
I'm ok with preflop. Honestly, only going 3ways and OOP, unless our opponents are horrible, it's pretty borderline whether this is profitable (albeit we are getting a break on the pricing thanks to being in the BB).
I actually don't mind the small donk (I might even bet less like $15). An LP opener is just so much more likely to have air in their range on this flop and could easily check it 3ways, so our hand is often good and we're just trying to protect and take it down ASAP for as cheap as possible.
I'm shutting down when called. I really don't like the turn/river as my guess shes the type to check back her busted draws to showdown so we can simply get there for cheap with our extremely weak hand, and otherwise we can simply check/fold to her bets. A lot of her draws as well as Tx hands have backed into a pair / two pair that ain't folding. About the only hands we're getting to fold with a turn / perhaps river bet is like 99-77 (perhaps some weak Tx hands that didn't back into two pair) and that is too small a range to bluff against with a hand that is fine with a cheap showdown.
GcluelessNLnoobG
These are pretty much my thoughts. But I'll go ahead and say I LIKE the donk against a nitty opener trapped in the middle and a button who has often missed. Yes, the guy might c-bet non-10 broadway hands, but it's not like that is utterly fantastic for us.
I'd want to know a bit more about V to put her on hands more accurately before continuing. Some people will rarely have QT or KT here. You might be able to weight them very heavily to 44, 55, 77,88,99, TT 100% of the time they have those hands, and then maybe JTs and ATs much of the time and 9ts only some of the time. Though, such a person might also have QQ and might have JJ a lot. Maybe AK too.
In other words, it's just kind of a mess, especially to sort through spontaneously.
The turn bet is probably OK. A lot of those hands will give up. I think the hands that are beating you will often be deciding here if they will hang in.
River might be time to give up. I know Vs are not often thinking, "wtf is this guy repping?" But people who play poker a lot still might understand on some level that this doesn't make sense.
Flush draws that now beat you are calling. Those that don't aren't bluffing.
I think 77-99 mostly gave up already, especially the lower ones. If 99 and JT or AT took a stand, they might continue to do so.
There is no shortage of hands that improved and have easy calls (since we don't have a decent read).
You probably aren't really losing much by bluffing here, but you are adding quite a bit of variance and it might be optimistic to say you are breaking even for your trouble.
So, 5/10 for the whole endeavor but 3/10 for the river bluff alone.