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1/3 Rate Me Bluff 1/3 Rate Me Bluff

02-25-2018 , 01:32 PM
H (600) just moved to the main game, never played with V before.

V (400ish) is a MA female, seems like she's plays recreationally/as a hobby.

Folds to CO, 15, V on Bu calls, H calls 66 from BB.

F(45): T44
H leads 20, the original raiser is pretty tight/nitty if he called H was shutting down but I expected folds from is air especially with a player left to act, fold. Main V quickly call.

T(85): Q
35, call

R(155): K
75


I'm mostly trying to fold a Tx here (not QT, KT) and all busted FDs also folds. Thoughts?
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02-25-2018 , 01:40 PM
You have SDV against the busted FDs, except the ones that include Ks and Qs, which are likely never folding their back-door pair. Still, against a MA female I'll assume a certain level of nittyness and can get behind barrelling. What is with the tiny turn bet, though?
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02-25-2018 , 02:32 PM
I'm not a fan. You don't really have anything going for you here.

* V's are unknowns, so you don't know how they react and you don't have any image you can use.

* You're OOP

* You're against two V's.

* You have very little equity when called.

* Even though PFR could be weak, it still strengthens ranges, including hands that are never folding here.

* Your bets are small. LLSNL V's call small bets too much.

* I don't put that much stock in V's having hand reading ability, but if they do, they're going to wonder why a 4 or better didn't x-r and why a T is still quite so happy to be putting money in as successive overcards come.

Bluffing at LLSNL can be a good source of revenue, but only in certain situations and I don't think this is one of them.
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02-25-2018 , 03:18 PM
looks a little ...





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02-25-2018 , 03:26 PM
I'd start off with thinking about what you are trying to represent. What hand do you have that is going to bet on all three streets but not try to bet big that would call pf? If you had a T, you would have bet harder on the flop. I think you get looked up often.

Congrats on winning the hand, though. Better to be lucky than good.
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02-25-2018 , 03:31 PM
I don't think this is a good board, position, or villain to bluff like this against. I rate it a 3/10. You get points for bet sizing, having the nads to follow through with it, and there being some parts of V's range that you beat that could have gotten to the river like this and folded. Mostly AQ/JJ/AT.

edit: wait, I misread it as the person in the hand as the raising nit. Most of my comments still apply I guess.
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02-25-2018 , 05:18 PM
I don’t like the donk lead at all. Maybe go for an occasional, but rare x/r on the flop. Calling pre and b/b/b seems bad to me.
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02-25-2018 , 06:46 PM
First question is what are u trying to rep? AA/4X? If so, once $ cards begin to turn, your sizing is way too small. Big spade draws now hit their cards, so if u did have a strong hand, a load of value would have been left on the table.

If u bet that much with nutty hands, I'll give credit for balancing. If not, the sizing is a tell, so 4/10.

Also, how much air does a tight nit have in his PFR range?
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02-25-2018 , 10:34 PM
Just setmine, running a bluff oop without reads is too risky and we are drawing almost dead vs most made hands.
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02-26-2018 , 12:53 PM
Before I even read the HH, I caught "rate my bluff" and "hero has never played with villain before". I'm grunching, but at this point I'm rating it low (i.e. don't bluff unknowns).

I'm ok with preflop. Honestly, only going 3ways and OOP, unless our opponents are horrible, it's pretty borderline whether this is profitable (albeit we are getting a break on the pricing thanks to being in the BB).

I actually don't mind the small donk (I might even bet less like $15). An LP opener is just so much more likely to have air in their range on this flop and could easily check it 3ways, so our hand is often good and we're just trying to protect and take it down ASAP for as cheap as possible.

I'm shutting down when called. I really don't like the turn/river as my guess shes the type to check back her busted draws to showdown so we can simply get there for cheap with our extremely weak hand, and otherwise we can simply check/fold to her bets. A lot of her draws as well as Tx hands have backed into a pair / two pair that ain't folding. About the only hands we're getting to fold with a turn / perhaps river bet is like 99-77 (perhaps some weak Tx hands that didn't back into two pair) and that is too small a range to bluff against with a hand that is fine with a cheap showdown.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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02-26-2018 , 06:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Before I even read the HH, I caught "rate my bluff" and "hero has never played with villain before". I'm grunching, but at this point I'm rating it low (i.e. don't bluff unknowns).

I'm ok with preflop. Honestly, only going 3ways and OOP, unless our opponents are horrible, it's pretty borderline whether this is profitable (albeit we are getting a break on the pricing thanks to being in the BB).

I actually don't mind the small donk (I might even bet less like $15). An LP opener is just so much more likely to have air in their range on this flop and could easily check it 3ways, so our hand is often good and we're just trying to protect and take it down ASAP for as cheap as possible.

I'm shutting down when called. I really don't like the turn/river as my guess shes the type to check back her busted draws to showdown so we can simply get there for cheap with our extremely weak hand, and otherwise we can simply check/fold to her bets. A lot of her draws as well as Tx hands have backed into a pair / two pair that ain't folding. About the only hands we're getting to fold with a turn / perhaps river bet is like 99-77 (perhaps some weak Tx hands that didn't back into two pair) and that is too small a range to bluff against with a hand that is fine with a cheap showdown.

GcluelessNLnoobG
These are pretty much my thoughts. But I'll go ahead and say I LIKE the donk against a nitty opener trapped in the middle and a button who has often missed. Yes, the guy might c-bet non-10 broadway hands, but it's not like that is utterly fantastic for us.

I'd want to know a bit more about V to put her on hands more accurately before continuing. Some people will rarely have QT or KT here. You might be able to weight them very heavily to 44, 55, 77,88,99, TT 100% of the time they have those hands, and then maybe JTs and ATs much of the time and 9ts only some of the time. Though, such a person might also have QQ and might have JJ a lot. Maybe AK too.

In other words, it's just kind of a mess, especially to sort through spontaneously.

The turn bet is probably OK. A lot of those hands will give up. I think the hands that are beating you will often be deciding here if they will hang in.

River might be time to give up. I know Vs are not often thinking, "wtf is this guy repping?" But people who play poker a lot still might understand on some level that this doesn't make sense.

Flush draws that now beat you are calling. Those that don't aren't bluffing.

I think 77-99 mostly gave up already, especially the lower ones. If 99 and JT or AT took a stand, they might continue to do so.

There is no shortage of hands that improved and have easy calls (since we don't have a decent read).

You probably aren't really losing much by bluffing here, but you are adding quite a bit of variance and it might be optimistic to say you are breaking even for your trouble.

So, 5/10 for the whole endeavor but 3/10 for the river bluff alone.
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02-26-2018 , 07:57 PM
MA female who calls flop and turn bets is saying she has something and doesn't want to fold. I doubt she is chasing flush, but you never know. You beat the busted flush draw anyway, so your river bet is only going to fold out worse. No way she folds a T if she called this far.
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02-27-2018 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
You have SDV against the busted FDs, except the ones that include Ks and Qs, which are likely never folding their back-door pair. Still, against a MA female I'll assume a certain level of nittyness and can get behind barrelling. What is with the tiny turn bet, though?
I think the turn bet is fine, it's a little under half pot. Sure I bet bigger for value most of the time with a 4x or a T, but majority of my V aren't capable of reading into this and/or have it in them to advantage of the exploitable sizing



Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I'd start off with thinking about what you are trying to represent. What hand do you have that is going to bet on all three streets but not try to bet big that would call pf? If you had a T, you would have bet harder on the flop. I think you get looked up often.

Congrats on winning the hand, though. Better to be lucky than good.
Trying to rep Tx 4x, broadway with spades etc. If I had a T and I chose to donk I'd bet the same amount. It's slightly under psb on a paired board, what's the issue?


Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
First question is what are u trying to rep? AA/4X? If so, once $ cards begin to turn, your sizing is way too small. Big spade draws now hit their cards, so if u did have a strong hand, a load of value would have been left on the table.

If u bet that much with nutty hands, I'll give credit for balancing. If not, the sizing is a tell, so 4/10.

Also, how much air does a tight nit have in his PFR range?
The hand folded to the tight player that was sitting on a stack, even this V in this spot can open a little wider here. I'm trying to get his broady way combo, Ax combos pairs under TT to fold.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2
These are pretty much my thoughts. But I'll go ahead and say I LIKE the donk against a nitty opener trapped in the middle and a button who has often missed. Yes, the guy might c-bet non-10 broadway hands, but it's not like that is utterly fantastic for us.

I'd want to know a bit more about V to put her on hands more accurately before continuing. Some people will rarely have QT or KT here. You might be able to weight them very heavily to 44, 55, 77,88,99, TT 100% of the time they have those hands, and then maybe JTs and ATs much of the time and 9ts only some of the time. Though, such a person might also have QQ and might have JJ a lot. Maybe AK too.

In other words, it's just kind of a mess, especially to sort through spontaneously.

The turn bet is probably OK. A lot of those hands will give up. I think the hands that are beating you will often be deciding here if they will hang in.

River might be time to give up. I know Vs are not often thinking, "wtf is this guy repping?" But people who play poker a lot still might understand on some level that this doesn't make sense.

Flush draws that now beat you are calling. Those that don't aren't bluffing.

I think 77-99 mostly gave up already, especially the lower ones. If 99 and JT or AT took a stand, they might continue to do so.

There is no shortage of hands that improved and have easy calls (since we don't have a decent read).

You probably aren't really losing much by bluffing here, but you are adding quite a bit of variance and it might be optimistic to say you are breaking even for your trouble.

So, 5/10 for the whole endeavor but 3/10 for the river bluff alone.
I was looking for a response like this and the one GG wrote. Something a little in depth where I can take some food for thought for a situation later.

The thing you pointed out about AT or most Tx might take a stand here at this point, how did you determine that?

My exact thoughts during the hand was, V likley doesn't have a 4x here since i didn't get raised on the flop and on the turn. Her range is most likely AT-T8? and FDs, and if i make a decent size bet, I can get her to fold all of her busted FDs and some if not all of her Tx. This was the original question, What are you guy's thoughts on folding out a Tx here that isn't a QT or KT.


But, anyways, I think hands like these are probably best left not posted as the 'standard line' police in this forum always comes out



Thanks for the replies
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02-27-2018 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Before I even read the HH, I caught "rate my bluff" and "hero has never played with villain before". I'm grunching, but at this point I'm rating it low (i.e. don't bluff unknowns).

I'm ok with preflop. Honestly, only going 3ways and OOP, unless our opponents are horrible, it's pretty borderline whether this is profitable (albeit we are getting a break on the pricing thanks to being in the BB).

I actually don't mind the small donk (I might even bet less like $15). An LP opener is just so much more likely to have air in their range on this flop and could easily check it 3ways, so our hand is often good and we're just trying to protect and take it down ASAP for as cheap as possible.

I'm shutting down when called. I really don't like the turn/river as my guess shes the type to check back her busted draws to showdown so we can simply get there for cheap with our extremely weak hand, and otherwise we can simply check/fold to her bets. A lot of her draws as well as Tx hands have backed into a pair / two pair that ain't folding. About the only hands we're getting to fold with a turn / perhaps river bet is like 99-77 (perhaps some weak Tx hands that didn't back into two pair) and that is too small a range to bluff against with a hand that is fine with a cheap showdown.

GcluelessNLnoobG

dude no mention of the SPR? I feel cheated lol

I think checking is a valid on the turn and probably just checking river and fold to a bet. I agree she's betting everything better, and likely checking back her FDs on the turn. But tbh, I saw the over card and was targeting folds from her Tx and sorta never adjusted my plans afterward. This is also probaly wishful thinking on my part that an unknown V will will see an over card to the T and get scared to continue.
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02-27-2018 , 02:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balerion1
dude no mention of the SPR? I feel cheated lol

I think checking is a valid on the turn and probably just checking river and fold to a bet. I agree she's betting everything better, and likely checking back her FDs on the turn. But tbh, I saw the over card and was targeting folds from her Tx and sorta never adjusted my plans afterward. This is also probaly wishful thinking on my part that an unknown V will will see an over card to the T and get scared to continue.
If we had complete air here then more reason to take the line we did. But we don't have complete air; we have a showdownable hand that is fine with checking it down.

Gyou'rebluffingwiththewronghand,imoG
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02-27-2018 , 03:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balerion1
dude no mention of the SPR? I feel cheated lol

I think checking is a valid on the turn and probably just checking river and fold to a bet. I agree she's betting everything better, and likely checking back her FDs on the turn. But tbh, I saw the over card and was targeting folds from her Tx and sorta never adjusted my plans afterward. This is also probaly wishful thinking on my part that an unknown V will will see an over card to the T and get scared to continue.
I'm gonna write this from my perspective as if I'm the V in the hand...

Some unknown comes to the table, calls from blind and donk leads this T44ss flop under half pot... It's not that a good player would *never* do this, but basically my first thought is this is a bad player; this is one of those things that bad players do - they probably are trying to pot control with a weak ten or set a price on a draw. Or maybe they have a medium pocket pair and want to “see where they’re at.”

Turn comes with an overcard, and sizing is dropped down from 44% to 41% of the pot. Despite the flush draw on flop, and now extra straight draw possibilities. Now I'm even more certain that I'm up against a weak ten or a flush draw. Or maybe this is just a poorly executed bluff with a random hand like 66? Regardless, I'm fairly confident this is not trips.

River comes and sizing increases to 49%. My thinking is bad bluff, or a weak ten that's scared to lose. Maybe, just maybe I got rivered here. Oh well, I only need to win 1 out of 3 times, so I am definitely calling (or possibly raising) with my Tx hands here. Plus unknown villains do weird stuff with hands like 66 in this spot. I call.

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 02-27-2018 at 03:40 PM.
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02-27-2018 , 03:46 PM
Right, but you are not a Middle Aged Women. I've actually had MAW fold sets in similar spots to me (though my sizing was much larger on all three barrels).

Still, I find the sizing problematic.
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02-27-2018 , 03:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
I'm gonna write this from my perspective as if I'm the V in the hand...

Some unknown comes to the table, calls from blind and donk leads this T44ss flop under half pot... It's not that a good player would *never* do this, but basically my first thought is this is a bad player; this is one of those things that bad players do - they probably are trying to pot control with a weak ten or set a price on a draw. Or maybe they have a medium pocket pair and want to “see where they’re at.”

Turn comes with an overcard, and sizing is dropped down from 44% to 41% of the pot. Despite the flush draw on flop, and now extra straight draw possibilities. Now I'm even more certain that I'm up against a weak ten or a flush draw. Or maybe this is just a poorly executed bluff with a random hand like 66? Regardless, I'm fairly confident this is not trips.

River comes and sizing increases to 49%. My thinking is bad bluff, or a weak ten that's scared to lose. Maybe, just maybe I got rivered here. Oh well, I only need to win 1 out of 3 times, so I am definitely calling (or possibly raising) with my Tx hands here. Plus unknown villains do weird stuff with hands like 66 in this spot. I call.


..... stop trolling.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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02-27-2018 , 04:15 PM
That's not trolling. It's not as helpful as it might be, as it ignores the V you're dealing with, but it's an attempt to show you another perspective.
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02-27-2018 , 04:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Balerion1

The thing you pointed out about AT or most Tx might take a stand here at this point, how did you determine that?

My exact thoughts during the hand was, V likley doesn't have a 4x here since i didn't get raised on the flop and on the turn. Her range is most likely AT-T8? and FDs, and if i make a decent size bet, I can get her to fold all of her busted FDs and some if not all of her Tx. This was the original question, What are you guy's thoughts on folding out a Tx here that isn't a QT or KT.


But, anyways, I think hands like these are probably best left not posted as the 'standard line' police in this forum always comes out



Thanks for the replies
NP.


I've just found that in many cases, a person with a medium strength hand in a small or medium sized pot will make this determination on the turn. 1 overcard has hit. That's a little scary to them. You bet. They decide if they want to call you or not. If you are bluffing or not. It can be hard to change their minds on the river.

Might be ambitious to give her hands like T8. But there is something a little interesting there, maybe. If she has t8s she has lots of flush draws too.

I think the main thing here is that you beat most of her FDs. Since you bet 2 streets and she is a MAW I really doubt she will turn them into bluffs. Her K high Fds and Q high Fds that made a pair are quite likely to call you. Maybe the Q highs won't.

So, I think if you went bet bet, and were happy to just have bluffed out some hands like 88 and 77 and maybe the occasional t, then to win a showdown against most FDs, you would be in pretty good shape.

But, a lot will depend on reads and stuff too.
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02-27-2018 , 04:19 PM
OP I love bluffing as much as anyone but the hand was butchered. Hand would have played 10x better as a flop c/r. At least you can pick up a cbet. You should be saving these flop leads for like J9, QJ, AsX and stuff if you're into having a bluff range, at least have a prayer of improving.
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02-27-2018 , 05:01 PM
I don't think the flop bet is a bluff.

The tight raiser will have missed the vast majority of his unpaired hands. The lady also probably missed. We now have second pair on one of our better non-6 flops, with the board pairing bellow 6, and if we are good, it will probably be checked around and there are about 80 cards we don't want to see on the turn. On bad turns, we probably have to check again. Say the turn is the same: a Qc. We are often still good, but it is a total guessing game as to how often and we are OOP. So we probably have to check and give a SECOND free card to hands like AK, AJ, 89s, XcYc or be bluffed by those hands.

You can say this is a "see where we are at" bet, which is a bad player play. It sort of is, but we don't really have to worry much about these Vs recognizing that and trying to raise us off our hand. I think, if anything, we are more likely to be called by an AQ type hand OTF, simply hoping to hit.

Also, unconcerned about balancing my range against players who don't think about it that way and with whom I will play maybe 200 hands and then never see again.

Anyway, this is a type of play I've been trying to remember to work in more often vs. extremely straightforward players, so hopefully, I'm right.
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02-27-2018 , 05:35 PM
Your hand looks like Tx, and if kicker played, it's probably a chop on the river now, so I'd expect villain to shrug/call most T's. Where the bluff works is against 99-66. Sorry for the prompt opinion, but if there's any larger takeaway it's to continue value betting if you instead had a Q or K high flush draw on the same runout.
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02-27-2018 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ES2
I don't think the flop bet is a bluff.

The tight raiser will have missed the vast majority of his unpaired hands. The lady also probably missed.
I agree flop bet isn't necessarily a bluff. It isn't really for value either. It kind of doesn't do either very well. We get floated plenty (with hands that connect with this particular turn and river incidentally) and have to play oop with a hand that will not improve.

If lady missed vast majority, it's better to let her cb and c/r than it is to let her float the flop lead. I don't think she's folding hardly any hands to this half pot bet.
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02-27-2018 , 05:59 PM
As I read it, a tight player made the raise, the lady called on the button and we are in the blinds.

So if the initial raiser has AK, KQ, etc. he is in a tight spot when led into with the lady behind him. He might call, but then he will often play passively.

Unknown MAW on button can have all broadways, lots of SCs. All PPs bellow AA and KK (and sometimes AA and KK).

Basically, I think we are just making a protection bet OTF. I know that this should rarely be our primary reason for betting, however I think this is an instance where it is fine, particularly since these are probably not players who are likely to abuse us for doing it.
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