V1 (130)- 50 yo white female, tight
Hero's Image (800)- 25 yo white male, tag

Preflop (4):
Hero is UTG dealt QQ
Hero raises to 12, V1 calls.

Flop (25):
J98
Hero bets 16, V1 raises to 40, Hero folds.

I am not getting immediate odds to improve. I can't be sure I'll get action if I do improve.

Stack sizes? Reads? You could be ahead on the flop eg he has jt or flush draw. What range for villain? You have nine outs v two pair although you don't know what three of them are of course.

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130 effective, villain just sat down recently but hasnct done anything our of line. I think her flop raising range is 2p, sets and str8. I don't think semibluffing is in her arsonal.

Yeah pretty gross spot, and with 40bb effective stack sizes this hand is one you will encounter in tournament play. Old lady would probably hardly ever raise with a flush draw except AK so she most likely has JJ,99,88 and maybe AJ. Against a range of just sets (JJ,99,88) you are a 23% dog, you need about 37%. If you include the combos of AJ you are actually a slight favorite of 51%. I would probably shove all-in because she could have some combos of AJ and your not drawing completely dead, and you do have 6 outs to improve if your behind.

I like folding more than shoving here. While it's possible that V can be raising for value here with AJ, or a hand like AT, like you said, most of the time she has sets, 2p and less frequently the flopped straight.

And if you call flop and turn is a brick that doesn't change anything you can't comfortably c/c again...and like you said your implied odds here are probably terrible.

I like a fold here. Women tend to play very passively with draws. They usually only get aggressive with big made hands.

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Against ATs you are actually miles behind. Ok if she is that tight it can be a fold.

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Surprisingly, we still have a smidge under 45% equity against AT, and we have ~77.5% against AJ. Those are the only two hands that we are in ok shape against that she would make this place with though, which is why I think this is a fold.

Then again, we actually have 70% equity vs pair + sd hands, and have over 40% against all two pair combos...maybe this isn't as much of a snap fold as I thought initially.

Against sets and straights we are slightly less than 20%, and that is the worst case scenario.

I think I still advocate for a fold here, but it's a lot closer than I originally thought.

Grunching ...

WP. With blockers in your hand, you are most likely behind vs. this type of opponent. If I were IP, I'd sometimes check back this flop.

Raise to 80. Call if V shoves.

I don't like your open raise size. Your 1/3 NL table is in a different universe than mine if a $12 open is likely to narrow the field. Also, if a lot of other stacks are short like villain, we can easily make this $15 - $20 (which is not out of the ordinary at all at my 1/3 NL table) to setup an easy stackoff situation with TP postflop due to an SPR <= 4.

Even with the small open the SPR is still a pretty small ~4.7 (noting that if we just hadda opened to 15 we have a trivially easy SPR of ~3.8). We have an overpair on a drawy board HU with a small SPR. I feel I'm committed, so I pot the flop in order to shove the turn (i.e. I don't like your flop bet sizing), and I'm never folding. As played, she's a shortstack (who, in general, are notorious for getting in their stacks light); she could have any pair, any draw, any pair + draw, etc. I'm snap shoving.

And even if we do happen to be behind me most likely have 6 outs to the nuts plus even a backdoor flush draw.

Graiseslightlymorepreflopandthere'sevenlesstothink aboutpostflop,imoG

As played I think it's a bit tight. When you cbet are considering QQ to be a bluff? I would prefer a x/c on this board, cbetting folding an over and a gutshot seems bad vs a short stacked V

Thanks for the replies all.

I am betting for value, villain can call with worse but will usually raise better. I hadn't consider c/c as I pretty much always cbet with an overpair as the pfr.

Results-

c/c is bad. I don't mind checking back flop, but OOP you have to bet and see what Villains do on this drawy board. Can't risk it checking through when so many cards kill your action on turn.

Never folding here.

Decent fold, checkraises are usually signs you are beat imo.

I probably call or shove in this spot ~%25 of the time too though. Nothing wrong with folding. All we need to do is raise qq next time and let villan sigh call his stack of next time.

Play against a 40bb stack it's thought to justify folding an over and a gut shot. V can be doing this with any pair and straight draw. I would shove

never folding to one raise. Call see a turn and decide from there.

If she has a made hand, and she usually will, she hates half the deck. There's a good chance that you'll be able to see two cards to improve to beat her, and you can always rep the draws if and when they come in.

I think folding an over pair here to a little more than a min raise is way to nitty. I hope you didn't show when you folded.