Hero is early 30s WG reg. Hasn't been at this table long, but has some history with V and a few others at the table. If they pay enough attention, I should have the image of a winning LAG. In this session though, I may have only played about two orbits and nothing of note has happened.

V is MABG reg. Tries to be a level 2 thinker a little, but moreso "putting you on a hand" versus a range. Skews tighter on the spectrum, has some aggression but not a lot. I don't think he is particularly position-aware - he certainly knows people can and do play looser IP, but the subtleties of position play, particularly PF, are likely not on his mind.

Eff. stacks $252. Hero covers.

V (UTG) raises to $10. With this raise size I discount AA/KK from his range, but not exclude them completely. I range him at 55+, ATs+, AJo+, KJs+, KQo. There could be some random suited connectors in there too.

Folds to Hero in BB who looks down at Q Q. I don't have a ton of 3bet pot history with this V but I think I can safely raise for value here so I do to $35. V calls. I narrow V's continuing range to 77+, AJs+, AQo+.

Flop ($70): A A 5

Hero checks. (Hero would do this with nearly his entire PF 3! range, except for if I had gone real light with like 89s and just wanted to purely bluff). V says "same bet" of $35. Hero calls in rhythm.

Turn ($140): 4

Hero checks again as he expects a lead to fold out worse and get called only by better. Villain bets $60 and has roughly $112 behind.

I think we're at the decision point here - what's the plan? If we call, are we committed to c/c all rivers except a Q?

Fold turn. Nice trips. Barreling range is like AT+ and maybe KK. Discount A5/4s and 55, 44 because of call pre and lead on turn.

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I'd probably raise slightly more preflop to about $40 - $45 to do a slightly better job of preventing setmining odds, but whatever.

I also check/call the flop.

I also agree the turn is the decision point. In game time, I probably lean to a fold. In post mode, I probably wonder how often he actually bets the flop with an A (doesn't everyone always check back an A here?), in which case I'm leaning towards check/calling it off.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Is this spot just completely standard/uninteresting?

I thought it was a fairly common dynamic in 3bet pots OOP, and thus the guiding principles of how to play this would be widely applicable. Interested in more thoughts if they're out there.

Bet flop 35$ and c/f turn
&river if you don't boat up .. Easy game


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Reasons?

GprettymuchaWA/WBsituationontheflop,no?G

Because WE lose the minimum if we Are Beat. Lowest Variance I think and we still Get value of lower PP ..

It's close, but I like a bet here a lot, because I feel more comfortable in c/f OTT then ..

But yeah both work. But I hate passive lines when an aggressive one is exactly the same or maybe better ..


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Seems mostly on the flop we are WA/WB. No draws, a Kx is on a 3 outer, a pocketpair is on a 2 outer, and we're on a 2 outer if he has an A. No reason to bet, and against weaker hands we're more likely to eventually get money in the pot by checking than betting (especially if we're only looking to get one street, which on this board might be our target).

Still, either way we do it, admittedly kinda sucky spot on the turn.

GimoG

fold flop.

make it 50 pre

Yea, if we're gonna somewhat face up our hand we should be charging more.

This is sound logic.

Although betting out can discourage him from bluffing; when his range contains some bluffs, we are in a pickle, as evidenced by the hand.

If we have reason to believe he will fire multiple barrels light into a 3b pot, can do this with a hand like 99-JJ, and is more likely to slowplay in a spot like this, we should be in calling mode.

If we have reason to believe that at least two of the aforementioned possibilities aren't true, we should be prepared to lay it down ott.

Typical 1/2(3) behavior is that people are very straightforward and "honest" in 3 bet pots. Villain is described as "has some aggression but not a lot" so I wouldn't expect him to be light here.

I'm kinda torn OTF.
c/f seems too weak
c/c seems like we're always putting $ in with a 2 outer
b/f maybe but we're never folding an A or getting called by worse.

I think I'm leaning more toward b/f OTF but in game I pretty much always c/c like OP

OTT I think c/f is pretty easy.

Based on player description, its definitely a c/f turn imo.

Everything else seems to be fine just fine. His bet sizing really makes it seems like he has teh nuts.

Only thing I can think of, is some 1/2 1/3 players tend to panic when checked to them and feel compelled to bet, even with nothing. That might be the case here, but probably not based on player description.

Any merit to c/c with the plan to c/f river UI? The reasoning being that if V is bluffing/turning a made hand into a bluff that he might do so once or even twice, but by the river it has to be obvious I have gotten sticky with QQ/KK/AQ or just took a passive line with AK and am not folding, so a third barrel means he likely has it?

Or if we decide to c/c turn, are we committed to c/c all rivers UI?

A lot of votes for c/f turn - which I certainly considered. However, one point that GG mentioned early in the thread hasn't gotten much discussion, but I think the point was valid. How likely is V to bet Ax on this flop in this spot? Hero's hand should be polarized, and should appear just as likely to be slowplaying AQ/AK as he is c/c down with JJ-KK.

A typical V will check this flop with an Ax hand, so they project that their opponents would too.

Fold flop.

Live to fight another day

In villain's spot I bet the flop 100% with Ax. In position with flopped trips how else are we getting money in the middle?

I don't think villain's bluff frequency is near enough that we can c/c the turn with hopes to win UI even if he never 3 barrels.

So then why would he bet flop with Ax where x is anything other than a K?

I would pretty much never bet this flop when checked to with Ax. The SPR is < 4 and we're in position, so we can still easily play for stacks on turn/river. Plus prevents hero folds from exactly what hero has while on a 2 outer.

Course, this is why I'm considering check/calling it off, so your line is probably a lot better against me.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I was speaking of Vs as the PFR

Moving on a bit, as the river action is kind of interesting:

Hero calls the $60 turn bet.

River ($260) 8

Hero checks, V shoves for $112. Hero tries to get V talking, asks V if he wants me to call or fold. V just smiles. Hero says V has a nice smile, but that doesn't answer my question. V chuckles. Hero says "I have a really good hand! What do you want me to do" V stays motionless. Hero asks V what V thinks Hero has. V says "I don't know...I honestly don't care." Hero asks V if he would be willing to show one card. V says call and you see it. Hero says I know I get to see both if I call, but do you want to show me one now? V thinks for a sec and says "pick one to see." Hero starts to reach for one card and V pulls his cards back and laughs. After some joking banter about how he said I could see one and verbal = binding, the clock gets called by someone else at the table.

What's our move?

My point piggybacking off of yours was that if Vs would check Ax as the PFR - and thus project that their opponents would too (Hero in this spot), then why would V in this situation bet Ax OTF unless it was AK, if he expected Hero would have Ax a lot here?

I had trouble reconciling your reasoning (which is sound) with your advice to fold flop.

I think if we're calling the turn we have to call the river. It's a little concerning he's still betting the river, as a lotta pocket pairs will now give up and showdown. But I still don't think Ax bets this flop a lot, and the preflop raise size is typically indicative of a wide range (and not a monster). And of course with two Aces on board it does cut his Ax combos. And he likes putting people on a hand, and he's pretty sure we don't have an Ace at this point, which opens up his bluffing.

The more I think about it, the more I like a check/calldown postflop, even though obviously we feel fishy as hell the times we are shown Ax.

ETA: I also pretty much ignore all the table talk stuff. It's really not nearly as enlightening as people give weight to.

Gnicehandifwecalledtheriver,imoG

That is obnoxious. I would have called clock much faster.

This. Should have folded turn. Have to call river if you call turn.

What did he have?

This all occurred in less than 60 seconds. You must be a joy to play with.

I'd probably fold the turn. You lose to 19 combos of AK/AQ/AA/KK. The 18+ combos of JJ- should check the turn after you call the flop. Villain's turn range is pretty polarized to Ax and pure air. The turn bet size begs a call and sets up a river shove.

As played, I'd correct my mistake and fold the river. You don't make a huge mistake calling because you get ~3.5:1 odds and only need to be right a little more than 1/5 times. As with the turn, all JJ- should check back. His river shove range is Ax and air. I don't think a 'tightish' villain triple barrels with air often enough to make calling correct.