1/3, H is a winning reg and has been playing fairly snug and been card-dead for over an hour.. Table has been fairly passive with raises being 10-15 max.

V1 (BB, 250): Semi-OMC looking MAWG, seen him limp A8o in MP then lead out small on 8xx flop but check it to showdown.

V2 (BTN, 250): Young not-so-good rec who plays lots of hands pre but has shown propensity to fold when facing aggression (V2 c/r 15 to 40 with 98o on T98r where someone behind him came OTT for 200 and he open/folded to shover's 65o).

So both players seem very ABCish and could be expected to play tighter when H comes in... Onto the hand:


4-5 limps, H raises 25 with QQ in SB, V1 and BTN suprisingly call

Flop (~85): 8 6 6

V1's pf range is 100% AK/big-medium pairs only IMO
V2's pf range is all sorts of SCs, pairs, two paint cards, etc. maybe

a) What's a good cbet size?

b) Is this always a bet/fold against ABC players even though it's hard for any V, especially V1 to have 8x?

c) Are we always shoving brick turns if any of them calls our cbet? It's important to note that they're capable of folding JJ- to H's cbet OTF since H's hand looks exactly like what it is and he's not expected to be cbetting air based on perceived image.

Bump!

Our estimate of how often we are good and can take it down is one factor in sizing the cbet.

How likely our Villains will try to steal if we check is a factor in determining whether to cbet.

How likely our Villains will try to steal if we cbet is a factor in both determining whether to cbet and how big.

Against what you describe as pretty much vanilla Villains we can cbet 50 or 60.

Seems pretty likely this flop missed any vanilla Villain who has a hand that can call $25 more preflop.

If called post flop, absent any reads, the pot is large enough that, since we have to call, we may as well shove.

But that's just me.

Size it to get stacks in by the turn because it's a drawy board so a lot of times V's will miss and c/f river so we can't expect a lot of value otr. So they both have $225 left after pf action. So 60 and 165 get stacks in both are near PSBs, seems reasonable.

And I'm not b/f'ing, I'm bet/calling. There are only 2 6's left in the deck and 3 combos of 88, if they have you beat, so be it.

I like the biggish preflop raise to 10% of stacks so we can just stack off postflop with an overpair.

SPR is ~3, so I'm never folding here. If someone got in 10% of their stack and hit a better hand, nice hand sir.

Board is drawy. People never fold draws on the flop. So I pot the flop (~$85) to shove the turn, and I'm never folding.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think we're overlooking our image in this spot and just playing our cards.

H bets 60 and V1 open folds JJ out of turn.

Would your advice still be the same when this spot pops up next time against the same V?

Pre looks quite small. Say 5 limps to you, and you're oop... I'd make it $30-$35.

I agree with GG - bet pretty large on the flop and never fold. SPR is closer to 2.5 than 3.

As for the results you posted, eh, not much you can do or should want to do. You played it fine. For the exact hand V had, Q-A are turn scare cards, spades will spook him as well, there can be a straightening card (T, 9, 7, etc). You're being pretty results-oriented. How would you change your behavior based on this hand? You wouldn't - but I would plan to c-bet and barrel a ton in other hands vs. this villain relative to your average villain.

With 4-5 limpers, and the blinds, pot is 16-19 when the action comes around to you? So 25 is about a pot size bet but I think, being OOP, I like just a touch higher.
As played, $60 c bet feels v right and I'm not planning to fold. V would need 76s or A6s to have thought about calling preflop and that's jsut a small part of their range.

Interesting that you think the MAWG is possible OMC after seeing him limp A8o. That's not usually in their playbook.

This. Hand is super standard, but the best thing to take away from this is that you can absolutely brutalize guys like these two postflop with bluffs/semibluffs. I guess it's unlucky that your V's are so tight that they'll fold JJ on 866cc board to a cbet.

Grunch:

50/110/shove

Given your description of the players (I read them to be nit tight in calling, but not necessarily in betting) why wouldn't you check on the flop and let thewm bet and evaluate based on size?

Against normal players, I would bet this flop, but you have already said how v1 checked to showdown and v2 folded flopped 2 pair. I check and let them think they are ahead.

The problem with what you're suggesting is that we are surrendering initiative with a premium holding and a SPR that favors our hand. We don't want to forfeit a street of value/allow our opponents to peel a free card with whatever equity they have when they both check behind us, nor do we want to c/r flop because our hand would be pretty face up.

We would cbet this flop with nearly or exactly 100% of our range, so checking likely costs us money long term.

I understand why you think checking may induce, but imo it's unnecessarily fancy.

So you're turning your hand into a bluff on A/K/spades/straightening cards?!

Without AK or club on turn, we are committing here. Bet 50 on flop and shove on dry turn.

RIO if you check. If turn was j, then what ? If you had flopped a set, then its a different ball game

I don't think I'd play these types of situations any differently.

However, I think I'd open up my preflop raising range in position when this guy limps into the pot. Like if it's 2 limpers (including him) to us in CO/Button, then I think I'm raising any hand I'm considering playing so long as I can be fairly certain it'll thin the field. We'll win with a cbet against this guy like always. Or there might be situations where we'll end up HU versus him postflop on the turn and we'll be able to steal some pots from him when he checks to us.

But don't overdo it / force it. We still have to wait for our spots. Just be aware when these opportunities arise so that we can take advantage of them.

GcluelessNLnoobG