Hero ($300): Nitty image, but raised $25 with junk a couple of orbits ago and showed so V might have an idea that I can be FOS. Also, Hero feels he has become easy to read at the table, because whenever he bets, he has a hand and whenever he checks, he seems to give up.

V ($600): New to the room, but seems like a decent player, just flatted my UTG raise with JJ in MP in my first orbit at the table and then raised a 10xx flop multiway. So I think he's decent.

Hero looks down at QQ in SB, 4-5 limpers including V in CO, Hero raises to $25, EP limper and V call

Flop ($80): Qh 7s 3h
Hero bets $50, V calls

Turn ($180): Tc
Hero ???

My standard is to bet here obv, but I feel like it's imporant to mix up my play also because I expect V to sense weakness and make a bet if I check to him. Atleast that's what's been happening to me whenever I check to anyone at the table after being the pf raiser and flop cbettor.

So is it reasonable to mix it up and check/shove turn here?

I'm assuming that the limpber folded since you gave no reads on him?

It would be tragic to not give our self a chance to get stacks in here given flop pot size and stack size. We have $230 more to get into the pot, so $75 here and $165 on the river seems ok.

I'm all for V sensing weakness, but once we check/shove we're like "Haha, caught you for $70 more, but don't worry I'll tell you that you're drawing almost dead, so you can fold your bad hand." If we want him to sense weakness, we could also 'same bet' him and see how he feels about taking that bait. Would bloat the pot more, but also give him rope to think he can push us off our hand.
I think I like that better than check/shoving.

The other option is to check/mini tank call the turn, and check the river if we think that he will turn weak SDV hands into a bluff on the river if he knows that he can't beat an OP.

Yeah, limper folded. Also, I don't think I'm repping strength by check/shoving given my image, because I ALWAYS bet when I have it, so this play looks more like "Okay I'm tired of the table bullying me when I check, so I'm gonna shove here with my AK/draws". I was actually feeling bullied at that moment.

For some reason you want to focus on imagining some interior dialogue that a Villain is having. But given that you get stacks in without ever betting over 1/2 pot, why do you think you need to deviate from the very obvious bet, bet, bet line?

There's downside of not betting the turn, Villain might not bet. And there's no upside since it's so easy to get the money in.

Long story short: What upside do you think there is in checking the turn?

I'm betting turn 99% of the time here. This was just a rare scenario because of the dynamics at this table and my image.

Also, what's your bet OTT?

I agree with your logic that a check/shove may not rep strength, but even with your image I'm not convinced he's going to bet the turn. Your image already told him you have a good hand since you bet the flop. I've played top set like this many times before only to have the guy check behind me. You may get another chance at the check/shove on the river, but I don't think it's as likely to be called. At worst, you give him the card he needed. But yeah, if you're almost certain he bets, check away...

Yeah, the thing is if I bet big OTT, he's just never calling me without sets/2pair and if I bet small, he gets good odds to chase his flush. Been there all the time.

Plus just because he knows you have it doesn't mean he knows you have the nuts. He may think his QT is money now. Your QQ may look like AQ to him. No one ever wants to believe you hit top set. But there's a $180 pot out there that belongs to you. I'm probably betting $95-110. Bye bye heart draw, c'mon trip 3's.

Why are you always on point? Gift of being a mod, lol?

This sums it up perfectly.

If we check, what % does he bet?

With air, a good percentage of the time.

With showdown value, almost never.

If he calls the flop, he likely has showdown value and will not bet if checked to on turn.

I would bet really small like $80 (remember there is a FD on flop) and GII on any river card.

How good are the odds?

With just the FD (no str8 draaw combos), Villain has a 16% chance of winning. This means that in your $180 pot, if you bet over anything over $30 ($28.80 to be exact) he is making a pot odds mistake.

I find that this such a misunderstood concept in NLHE. Betting half the pot $90, will give him terrible immediate pot odds as well as really poor implied odds.
Plus this will bloat the pot so much he may be inclined to call with any pair on the river when he misses.

Regarding us being easy to read: This is where bet flop / check turn (or vice versa) with TP hands really becomes useful, as players will not know whether we have whiffed air when we do this or a made hand.

Regarding read on Villain: I can't quite crawl into this guys mind, but if he's flatting JJ preflop to an UTG open I'm assuming it's because he thinks there's a decent chance he's behind, which seems at odds with raising a T high flop in a multiway pot. Not convinced he's the rocket scientist we think he is.

I like the big preflop raise, I might even go a touch more so that I can feel I'm committed on non-A/K flops.

I would pot the flop. Here's the deal with flops like this. An opponent either has something worth calling with or they don't. If they have 99, they probably ain't going to call. If they have T9 they probably ain't going to call. If they have AJo they probably ain't going to call. So we ignore those hands, as we simply ain't going to get much money from them, unless we passively enter check/call mode and hope they bluff. But the small value we eke out here in these bluffcatchy spots will be dwarfed by the money we would lose if up against a hand that would possibly stack off. So instead, we simply hope they have something. We hope they have AQ or KQ, or a flush draw, or a straight draw, and none of these hands are folding to one bet, so make that bet as big as possible (although within reason, and a PSB is reasonable). And due to the possible draw on board, let's get as much money in against these hands ASAP before a scare card comes to shut things down. So a PSB on the flop creates a $240 HU pot on the turn with $195 left for a turn shove. If the board was slightly dryer, I'd be more ok with attempting to stretch this over 3 streets.

As played, if the Villain is bluffy, then I wouldn't hate a check on the turn. But if he's decent, I think he checks back a lot of hands here, including draws. And giving free cards to draws, or not being able to play for stacks on the river with monsters sucks. So I'm typically betting here.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Reasonable to c/c, yes. Reasonable to c/shove, no.

A bet or c/c really doesnt have an effect on getting the rest of our stack in on River .. only if V checks through the Turn does that not happen.

With Hero description I feel we will only get one more call/bet out of V unless V connects with Turn or River to improve hand. Once I see the T come out I can now make my decision. This either sort of helped V or didnt change his willingness to continue IMO. So I feel more inclined to bet $70 to $80 here and try for stacks with such a strong hand. If a 'super blank' came out (2,4,5) then I might check to induce, but only for calling purposes.

In either case, I am leading out on the River ... GL

I don't get it. Shouldn't a FD on board warrant a bigger bet to deny odds to V?

Pot is 180, you have 220.

If you check turn, and he bets, you obviously are going to shove, but how do you react when he checks it back and the heart hits? If the heart hits, you basically have to check, but then if he shoves on you, can you call 220 into 400 and think you are good 33-35%?

Also more importantly, when he has a value hand and the flush hits, if he isn't going to bluff, how much value did you lose by not betting the turn?

Betting the turn for 100 effectively commits your stack no matter what the river is. Given that you have the best hand and this extracts the most value from him when he actually has something, I take this line. You also greatly reduce his ability to bluff bad rivers and make the hand a lot easier to play since you are pot committed with this line. People constantly level themselves into giving free cards and then stack off in the bad. Playing in a way so that you can't do this makes your game more fundamentally sound. If V folds, you still win a nice pot. I can live with that.

If a heart hits, how about small value-bet/fold river rather than check?

Also, when we bet $100 on turn and river is a heart, you're saying we should shove anyway? What makes us so "committed"?

Deleted

Unclear, but it sounds like you were saying villain was willing to stack off w JJ on a T hi flop multiway. This could be fine, but based on that information alone it doesn't describe a good thinking player at these stakes. It describes someone who is a pretty low-level thinker. So I see no reason to think about balancing any more than you normally would in this game, i.e. very little.

It's much much more important for you to consider the range that villain gets to the turn with and what the most profitable line against that range is than to worry about balancing your own range.

Against TP and better hands it might be most profitable to c/r, but given you have 2 Q's there aren't many combos in this part of villain's range. Villain is going to have mostly weak one pair hands and FDs here. If you're convinced he's betting those hands often enough you might prefer to c/r, but based on the JJ hand he is mostly checking back weak hands and draws (because his actions are based purely on the absolute strength of his own hand) so BET.