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1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board 1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board

05-28-2017 , 01:06 AM
Hero ($450) is in BB with QQ

3 limps, V in CO ($450, straightfwd old guy) raises to $12, BTN calls, Hero raises to $40, V and BTN ($300) call

Flop ($130): JT4r (don't like this flop much)
Hero bets $65, V calls, BTN folds

Turn ($260): 3ss
Hero bets $110, V shoves, Hero ??

Hero has a tight image. And I've only seen one hand played by V where he called a $150 bet on flushing 10 high turn with JJ.
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-28-2017 , 01:48 AM
Imo, str8 forward old guys aren't bluffers nor semi bluffers so this is a fold. It would be nice to have more of a read as a 12 pfr vs 3 limpers is often not a big pp as those hands pfr bigger so, to me this looks a lot like TJs.
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-29-2017 , 05:11 AM
Trivial turn fold. Baluga Whale Theorem applies here (still in 2017).

BTW, I'm not understanding the previous JJ hand history at all but I guess it doesn't matter.
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-29-2017 , 06:41 AM
^ JJ hand displayed that he's very call-happy with weak strength hands.

I know it's a trivial fold OTT, I'm just wondering if I could size flop or turn any differently to bet/fold more cheaper against straightforward Vs like that?

Like a 1/3 PSB OTT to get called by Jx that will mubsily fold to a bigger bet?
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-29-2017 , 07:02 AM
Your sizing looks fine. The greater question would be what kind of range you'd assign to villain..ie does he even have hands like KQ or AJ in his range here that you can get value from (or could he be as wide as having AK/AQ or 98 type hands as well).
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-29-2017 , 01:58 PM
I'm not in love with 3betting a straightforward old guy, and facing a 4bet (where we'll obviously have to fold) would suck. I might lean towards just calling for this relatively cheapish price deepstacked and almost setmining against what will likely be a large field.

If we are going to 3bet, I would typically raise a lot larger to prevent setmining odds (especially since we'll most likely consider ourselves committed postflop on non-A/K flops) plus we'll be OOP, so I'd make it like $70ish.

Yikes, this is a terrible flop as JJ/TT just got there. Still, I guess old guy can still have AK/etc. Doubt he's going to get too out-of-line, so I'd just bet really small to mostly protect against gutshots. I wouldn't bet any more than $50.

Kinda ditto for the turn, I'd again just bet really small, like no more than $75.

As played, I think I'd fold to the raise. We're basically hoping he's getting out-of-line with AJ otherwise.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote
05-29-2017 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Still, I guess old guy can still have AK/etc. Doubt he's going to get too out-of-line, so I'd just bet really small to mostly protect against gutshots. I wouldn't bet any more than $50.
Don't forget pair outs. AK has 8 outs against us and thinks he has 10 outs. I think AK is calling 65 on the flop very often and might call more.

Vs turn shove I have 2 concerns, 1) can he shove draws esp when picking up outs holding AKss AQss, and 2) can he reason, "if I call now w AJ I can't get away on river anyway so I might as well shove to deny in case hero is behind and can outdraw me often here".

How str8 forward is str8 forward? I think str8 forward old guy probably doesn't pfr TJs as a pot builder and probably doesn't call the rr w AJsx nor KQsx, so TT-KK and AKss(semi bluff exception given # of outs) is most likely imo.

Wait a second, you say he's str8 forward but only seen him go to sd once? I guess you could have called him, loose old guy, and everything changes.

Last edited by zica; 05-29-2017 at 05:06 PM.
1/3: QQ facing turn shove on J hi board Quote

      
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