Worse possible flop as JJ/TT just got there and AK has a ~breakeven shove.

Gtheyarenotplayingbackatme,theyarenotplayingbackat me,theyarenotplayingbackatmeG

thank you everyone for this post. I would have jammed and now see how V could arrive at flatting with QQ plus

No shock i was hitting the bullseye once again, thats one of the reasons why i wanted results OP

Absolutely shocking that the "should I fold huge hand preflop" thread ended up with Hero being beat. You are truly a master predictor.

Bullseye!

For a huge amount of posters advocating a stackoff in this hand being out of tune with how nutted the 4 bet backraise is, it sure obviously will come as a surprise.

Me, GG+ a few more was on the spot during the thread and advocated a fold knowing hero was beat all the way without even flinching.

Yeah, but I don't want to be too results oriented though. Fact is, some (small) percentage of the time he inexplicably shows something lol that we have to file in our "pokr ain't ded" file. But for most part, it is exactly what it is.

GcluelessresultsorientednoobG

The correct strategy has nothing to do with the most likely outcome given that the hand was posted. If someone posts a thread, "should I fold top boat for 100bb when I lose only to a pocket pair with quads?" the correct strategy is "no" and the most likely outcome is that Hero lost to quads.

While I think Petrucci makes some valid points about backraise 4-betting being extremely nutted at 2/5 and below, the mere fact that the hand IS posted severely skews the outcome to "Hero made the aggressive play and lost to what was "obvious"." I mean the R-squared on the totality of sample hands must be close to 1 (and is one reason why I think allowing reverse HH's would make the forum more interesting).

That being said, these spots will always come down to history, read, gameflow, and stack sizes to determine the best answer. There is rarely ONE correct answer to a poker hand...how can there be without perfect information? That is why the game and our discussions are great.

Agree there is selection bias when hands are posted

But can we try and put together a decent sample size from the collective experience of everyone reading this post?

I mentioned already that I have experienced this exact spot once in recent memory in same spot as OP hero. V had AA.

I’ve mentioned this spot to another regular who said he’s seen V holding QQ once here but mostly AA. Dunno his sample size.

How about anyone else?

I have one caveat here: I have occasionally seen two players put in huge amounts pre-flop with weak holdings, for example ~$250 each pre-flop in a 1-2 game with Kc7c (fish) and AhJh (good aggressive player reading the situation)...but that was a loose ‘after midnight’ game (and the action went 2bet-3bet-4bet-5net-call all in, not same as OP).

I think it's bad for us when he does this with non KK+. Cause then it's actually a tough spot instead of an exploitative fold.

I have seen this EXACT lines SO MANY TIMES in low stakes NL games from villans who are just sick of me raising so much so they decide they're going to make a stand with their mediocare hand. Sometimes it's AJ, AQ, 66-TT. Sometimes it's a poorly played AK, and yes sometimes it's a trap. The reason myself and so many others are saying we need to jam QQ (i can get behind folding JJ) is because WE HAVE SEEN THIS LINE FROM PEOPLE AND IT'S NOT ALWAYS NUTTED LIKE YOU RESULTS ORIENTED ENTITLED FKS CLAIM. This post IS NOT being made when hero calls and villan flips over AT and we win.

Yes, you can go around folding QQ here in many games and many lineups and be okay. However, to say in a general vaccum without KNOWING that this particular villan is nutted here is complete garbage. PERIOD. And I'm sorry, but you guys don't KNOW this villan is nutted. Your projecting your experiences the same way those of us saying call are projecting ours.

We simply play in far different games if you are seeing a high percentage of 4bets to cold 3bets being non-nutted (remember, we're not talking about the nuttiness of "just" a 3bet here; we're talking about a 4BET in response to a cold 3BET). Heck, I'm pretty sure I go most sessions without even seeing a 4bet (seriously, it would be an interesting stat to collect for a while just to see how rare a preflop 4bet is).

But, if your games / experiences differ regarding this, fair enough. We'll simply have to leave it up to OP to decide what his experiences in his game are.

GcluelessNLnoobG

OP plays 1/3 in Vegas as far as i know, games i have a solid amount of experience in as you may know.

I can guarantee you (as results also shows of course), that 4 bet backraises in 1/3 games in Vegas in general is nutted unless villain being a rare spazzmonkey or a maniac.

Even when the games are super juicy filled with fish during WSOP that kind of move is rarely done without a nutted monster from 9 out of 10 villains.

honestly, i see this all the time....not just with medium pocket pairs but ANY pocket pairs...especially if they perceive you as aggressive and stealing pots preflop...they assume you have AK or AQ and are ok with flipping with a slight advantage

I guess cali truly is the holy land for live poker in america.

You really see players backraise 4 bet to $145 or more preflop at 1/3 "all the time" with any pocket pair?

I call bs and/or exagerrating.

Yeah, I mean even a statement like "all the time" implies a 4bet happens a lot (let alone with what hands are being shown up with). As I say, I would guess that if I play a normal ~8 hourish session and saw one single 4bet, I would consider that a lot (guessing as I'll admit I haven't tracked for any sample size).

Gclueless4betnoobG

I want to play in these games where 4b, 3b+speech, l/r, c/br, etc... are not nutted 99% of the time.

So jealous.

i didnt mean the 145 part, but 3 bet and 4 bet yes

Why is this even relevant?

Or this?

Do all "middle eastern guys" play the same poker?

All "asian guys"???

Having played a number of months in Vegas before relocating to the Bay Area I can say...this is true.

Games in Vegas are horribly nitty, so I agree that if this hand took place there, I'd be less likely to want to jam.

Another recent example from a Bay Area 2-5 game:
There is an EP raise to $20 with two callers, I look down at AA in late position and 3bet. Everyone folds except the last caller who thinks for a second and 4bets for around 65% of his stack. He had sat down around 20 minutes earlier and seemed splashy but hadn't done anything too wild up until that point.

I jam and he tanks for about 45 seconds (he hadn't seemed to consider that I may do this) and reluctantly calls off his stack with...KQo.

When I first moved to the Bay Area I was folding way too much. The games are different here so I adjusted accordingly.

Being Asian is usually relevant.

Cause of the difference in cost of living. People who live in Vegas have way less disposable income than people who live in Bay area. The people who can afford to sit in 2/5 Vegas games and lose 2k a night are usually upper middle class people or grinders who worked their way up. Or degens.