Villain (EP): 30 ish middle eastern guy, seems like a TAG but opened $15 with J3s on BTN (covers)
Hero (HJ): late 20s Asian guy, aggressive image; 3 bet twice and taken it down preflop recently including once vs villain; also taken down two very multiway pots by betting in position when checked to ($450)

UTG opens $11. Villain flats in EP. Hero makes it $45 with QQ in the HJ. UTG says "again?" and folds. Villain says "$45?" then announces "$145". Hero ???

Normally I just fold cause this screams AA. But the J3s and my image makes me think he might be fed up with me and making a move. Or I could be leveling myself. Obviously can't shove. If I flat I have to get it in on any non A or K high flop cause the SPR would be 1.

Tough spot. After showing so much pre flop aggression I would expect to get played back at light.

But QQ is not quite a fistpump jam. Still given table dynamics I never fold here. Which leaves jam or call. Is villain really taking this line with AK? Which is the only hand we are not WA/WB with. In my world AK is much more likely to just call.

I think I look at Villain and say ”145? Ha, All In!" Make it clear you are challenging his manhood and you will get looked up by 88-JJ more often than you lose to KK/AA.

Tough spot with all the things in play (especially our 3betting), but overall this deep I would lean to folding. First flatter of an EP raise (especially a small one) can easily have the monster we fear due to not wanting to scare off all his action with a cold 3bet from this spot (especially if he thinks there is someone behind like us that could attack). And raising to $15 when folded to on the Button with ~junk isn't nearly the same as call/4betting and putting reasonably large $450 stacks in play.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Why? Villain's line doesn't make sense, and there is $200 in the pot when the action comes back to you.

Pretty happy to stuff here.

Cause if he's bluffing I win less than half my stack. If he's not I'm probably getting stacked. If I flat I let him continue bluffing. This is of course assuming I'm even gonna continue.

What?

If he folds you win 100% of the time. Let's say hypothetically he has a hand like AJs & folds. He has a ton of equity even though he's behind, you make more from folding him out than calling. If he has AA you're still winning 1/5.

AA and KK should never flat an utg raise in a cash game. Maybe you projected that you were going to 3 bet though? The call/reraise from any position is generally 88-JJ imo. He's not giving much action postflop with these hands unless he hits a set, or its a low board. Best play is to shove pre.

this is typically what I see as well 88-JJ
AA may pop up here and there because some hoddie-sunglass wearing donkey saw it on TV

Easy jam. Your reasoning that you can't shove because he's polarized is flawed. For one, he's not polarized. This is often TT and AK ime.

Moreover, there is a good likelihood he spite calls his bluffs anyway. See, for example, the LRR hand where the limp-reraiser called the jam getting terrible odds with 59o. Once Villain reraises to 1/3 of his stack, I'd say the probability of him folding is incredibly low.

Finally, since Villain is getting 2:1 odds on a shove, it's not like it's some big tragedy EV loss if he folds, say, K9s, which has 32% equity against your hand.

+1

If there is ever a time AA/KK is flatted more preflop (i.e. in EP being the first to face an EP raise), I don't know when it would be. Whether it "should" be is irrelevant; the question is whether it "is".

GcluelessNLnoobG

this is sooooo nutted.

the verbal "how much? $45?" and then raising is so strong imo.

and an EP flat and then backraise is always nutted in my experience. i honestly would fold. i would jam if shorter but i think stacking off 150bb deep here, even with QQ, will not end well for us. he might show up with AK some % but i really believe it is KK+

There's a world of difference between a l/rr pf and a c/br pf. Hero's a young asian who's 3 bet twice already. 88-JJ is a good range to think it is as a standard. Jam it. The villain's going to think Hero could 4bet shove AJ and think he's good with his tens.

Say yes, again, then allin & tip the dealer simultaneously

anything that isn't a jam here is a mistake IMO.

We sometimes get called by 88-JJ, AK, AQ, AJ? which is a dream spot for us.


Sometimes he just folds. Cool we don't get outplayed on A87 when he has 44 and spazz jams the flop.

Yeah sometimes we are crushed but the mentality that we are ALWAYS behind here when he calls our jam here is just not good IMO. Pretty sure he shows up with middling pairs and AK, AQ type of hands here more than enough for a profitable jam.


Especially if you're putting ppl in a **** this aggro always raising kid lol live poker type of spot.

I would expect him to show up with AK a lot more often than AA or KK.

Call the 4bet and get it in on non A/K high flops.

J3s is not awful to open if folded to on the button vs two weak players in the blinds so not sure how much that kills his image.
True TAG players raise AA,KK almost always here so we just have to go with it.

I would just shove. Not thrilled about getting 150bb in with QQ but it’s what it is. I very rarely stack off QQ this deep but seems like a fine spot to

Agree with previous replies that 88-JJ and AK seem likely so jam looks nice on first thoughts. I have sympathy with OP that he might only be winning half his stack vs JJ-88 but losing his whole stack vs AA/KK but I guess JJ-88 might call our jam, putting us on AK etc with our loose 3 betting image.

AA/KK seem unlikely, but possible as per GG post. Most games I’ve experienced are quite passive after a raise ... But V might specifically be targeting YOU as a light 3 bettor here.

I sympathise a bit with the post that the verbal tell can mean strength (surely 88–JJ would keep quiet, repping AA/KK) but this is very uncertain.

I tend towards a jam but am not fist pumping

Havent read any replies, just the opening post.

Want to say something about the liveread of villain commenting verbally of the amount you made it like "45?" then announces to backraise to 145 is very concerning. That liveread is some of the most accurate correlations with the nutz in my experience. It has pretty much never failed me.

I would say villains range here is pretty much only premiums, so i mean youre just praying that he have AK and not KK/AA if you go with your queens here.

Its classic levelling to think a typical 1/3 villain is sick of you 3 betting and then widening his backraise range with the 145 raise. 95 percent of villains at that level doesent adjust in that sort of way: they simply wait for a monster before fighting back, and then they print money when you and other villains level yourself and stackoff into a nutted range.

Yup, exactly. That read alone is making me fold here, ive never experienced this being anything else but the nutz.

With the early pos flat+ the liveread speech before making the backraise i am willing to wager a decent amount of money from my roll that 88-1010 is simply not in villains range here.

Meh.
Just because villain can open with J3s on the button doesn't mean they're also capable of 4-betting with 88-JJ.
Although I've seen people play back at aggressive players at 1/2 and 1/3, it hardly ever happens.
3-betting at 1/2 and 1/3 is already pretty rare (typically QQ-AA, AK), and 4-betting typically narrows it down to AA or KK. I would lean towards a fold here.

In my games our post-speech QQ is dead meat here, hanging and aging in a cold storage unit.

Rip her in imo

In a 1/3 game a raise to $11 is pretty light, I'd find it hard to believe many players are going to just flat AA or KK here unless someone at the table behind has been really aggressively squeezing. Is that the case here?

Sure, you may run into AA or KK here but I think his range is weighted much more heavily towards TT-JJ/AQs+/AK so I'd just let it rip here, too. I don't think call is terrible either, particularly since you have position. I don't think a lot of 1/3 V's can pot-sized shove TT-JJ into a K or A-high flop.