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1/3 is this a profitable spot? 1/3 is this a profitable spot?

07-06-2019 , 09:14 PM
Hi all,

V is the effective stack with 244
He is playing pretty tight not getting out of line.

H: playing extremely tight but also card dead. Haven’t raised pre in 2 hours.

My image is probably so so nutty

OTTH: I open HJ to 12 with 10s9s

V calls cutoff blinds call

(48) Flop 4sQsKh I decide to check V bets 15 SB CALLS I check raise to 75 total

v shoves. For 217 total

Thoughts?

Last edited by XXX555666; 07-06-2019 at 09:20 PM. Reason: Wrong cars
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-06-2019 , 09:30 PM
Not sure why you checked this flop. Seems FPS compared to a CB without reads someone behind you is going to bet (definitely not the tight/passive guy, even though he does end up betting).

As played, the XR is probably OK (?), but has to be pretty thin multiway. I mean it makes sense because his bet-sizing/position is weak , & we have alot of draw equity, but tight/passives doesn't bet a lot to begin with (regardless of sizing or position), and how often will a raise actually get through 2 players? Once re-raised, I think you happily call all in @ this point getting those odds.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-06-2019 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Me Up
Not sure why you checked this flop. Seems FPS compared to a CB without reads someone behind you is going to bet (definitely not the tight/passive guy, even though he does end up betting).

As played, the XR is probably OK (?), but has to be pretty thin multiway. I mean it makes sense because his bet-sizing/position is weak , & we have alot of draw equity, but tight/passives doesn't bet a lot to begin with (regardless of sizing or position), and how often will a raise actually get through 2 players? Once re-raised, I think you happily call all in @ this point getting those odds.
My image is soooo tight and 3 people still called me pre haha. I would bet this board 9/10x but I didn’t think I had any fold equity but prob still ok being in the HJ
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-06-2019 , 09:39 PM
Your math doesn't work out. If villain started with 244 effective and called 12 pre, his stack should be 232, not 217. I'll assume 217 is correct so he started with 229 effective.

Let's give him a range of AK, KQ, 44, and all ace high flush draws. It's tough to see him doing this with JT because you have the Ts.

You have about 37% equity against that range. You have to call 142 more and the pot will be 485, assuming the SB folds. 142 is 29% of 485, so slightly profitable to call. However, if you call and SB calls, all the math changes because SB is probably only doing that with a set.

If SB looks like he's going to fold, this is a call.

However, the better play is to just call the 15. The three non-spade jacks are very well-disguised outs and we're still pretty deep.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-07-2019 , 06:20 AM
The SB in the hand only had like 110 to start

I decided to Check raise because my image is amazing but idk what’s better raising or calling
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-07-2019 , 06:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard32
The SB in the hand only had like 110 to start

I decided to Check raise because my image is amazing but idk what’s better raising or calling
These guys don't care about your image as much as you think. And if they do care, and ur tight, people are just as likely to want to chase you down for "implied odds" anyhow, not avoid you. What matters most is our draw equity & how often they hit/miss this flop when deciding to bet. I don't mind you checking this flop, but the raise is what makes little sense to me based on your reasoning for not betting in the first place.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-07-2019 , 07:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phil Me Up
These guys don't care about your image as much as you think. And if they do care, and ur tight, people are just as likely to want to chase you down for "implied odds" anyhow, not avoid you. What matters most is our draw equity & how often they hit/miss this flop when deciding to bet. I don't mind you checking this flop, but the raise is what makes little sense to me based on your reasoning for not betting in the first place.
I once folded every single hand for 2 hours. A guy commented that I never play a hand. I said "I bet the next time I raise I still get several callers". About 4-5 hands later I got AA and made a 6x raise. I got 4 callers and stacked the guy who commented on how tight I was.

Cliff notes....most people dont pay attention and /or dont care about your image.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-07-2019 , 09:41 AM
4 ways to the flop checking is probably solid. Villains are going to flop a piece pretty often here so we can just check and take our free card. If we were deeper or if our image actually matters in their mind we can barrel.

Check raise is a solid option against what’s likely a weak sizing. We don’t have showdown value, turning a pair won’t help us win, it might look nutted coming from you, and even if we don’t get folds we are doing fine against hands as strong as KQ.

Calling turn would be fine too.

As played call and hope he doesn’t have Kxss.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 12:32 PM
Preflop result why I just open limp here (and folding is fine too). Most tables I play at I have the nittiest image in the room and yet I'll still often get too much action for my raises. Even though we're not expecting the result, we still ended up creating a crap SPR for this hand multiway and OOP; it simply happens too much in my games to really think of getting out-of-line too early (in the HJ we still have 4 people to react, 2 of which can have position).

I probably lean to a cbet but I don't hate a check/raise attempt either. With ~$80 in the pot and only a little over ~$200 left, I just jam at this point (maximizes our FE plus we have ok equity if called). A smaller raise leaves us with too little for the turn (reducing our FE if we whiff).

I'm too lazy to math, but I'm guessing we have too much equity to fold to the shove even though obviously we don't love it.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 12:40 PM
If they are going to size so small check calling flop is good. If you are going to check raise I think it needs to be bigger.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 02:24 PM
Your image only counts for anything if people at the table are paying attention.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 02:39 PM
I really don't like the raise here. I just don't think you get enough fold equity to make it worthwhile. As played, I think it's a fold. As described above, the math checks out if it's just you and the raiser, but it's possible the small blind calls with a set, and AJ of spades is also in that calling range, which you definitely don't wan to see.
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
most people dont pay attention and /or dont care about your image.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008
Your image only counts for anything if people at the table are paying attention.
You're free to think what you want, but if you think no one is paying attention at the table to who's tight / who's loose / who's bluffy / who's aggro / who's passive / etc., then I really disagree. Most everyone at the table knows who the cast of characters is; think otherwise at you own peril, imo.

Mike's second line is more accurate. They're perfectly aware you haven't played a hand since last week and are now likely raising your AA. But they don't care, cuz they have 97s, and 97s can bust AA, so they call.

GcluelessgameconditionsnoobG
1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 04:11 PM
I think it depends.
From what I gather, you play in a small room where everybody knows each other. Then I agree, they are most likely paying attention.
But if you play in a big poker room like Borgata or the Commerce let's say, it matters less.
I was also speaking from a small stakes perspective. 1/2 or 1/3, where the opponents are not the most sophisticated on average.

I'm also willing to admit I'm wrong.

I also personally think a passive nitty image is counter productive.
The advantage seems to be that we can extract a lot of value from our good made hands from an aggressive opponent who thinks he can run us over. But the problem is, it's so hard to make a hand in Holdem!
Those rare occasions where we can successfully trap, usually doesn't make up for the times we're forced to fold all our marginal hands by an aggressive opponent. That's why I'm not in total agreement with the idea that the image of being a bad player is so advantageous.

Yourlocaldonkey

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1/3 is this a profitable spot? Quote
07-08-2019 , 04:50 PM
Maybe we can use a passive/ tight image more to our advantage in tournament poker.
Where the blinds force people to usually be more aggressive.

I don't know. I haven't played a tournament in maybe a year.

Everything in poker is so dependant on so many variables.
There's never an easy answer.

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