8 handed 1/3 stakes. I raise $15 UTG with JJ and get 2 callers to villian in late position who raises to $90. He is aggressive and one of the better players at the table. We are $375 effective.

Pod odds: I have to call $75 and the pot has $15×3+$90+1+3 = $139. My pot odds are then $75/($139+$75) = 36%.

What equity does my hand have against his range? I will guess his 3b range here is AQo+, 10's+. Against 10's I have 81% equity, 6 combos. Against JJ I have 50%, 1 combo. Against QQ+ I have 19%, 18 combos. Against AQo+ I have about 50%, 32 combos. These are all estimates, please correct me if I'm wrong.

Using my phone calculator I think I have 43% vs his range.

If everything above is correct the next step is where I need help. How do I use the numbers above to determine if I should fold, call, or raise? I feel any raise is the same as all in?

So if I raise all in I fold out 10's and JJ and AQ. I get called by QQ+ and AK. So 23/57 (40%) of the time I win $139? And 28% of the time I am racing with AK. And 32% of the time I'm dominated and have 19% equity.

How do I finish this analysis?

he should be very tight in this spot but if you're convinced he's not, there's a lot of money in the pot to make shipping attractive

your estimated preflop equity is rather irrelevant since for you to realize all that equity, you'd need to see the river every time. not to mention the sudden dip in your eq when he picks up an additional caller

Download Equilab. It is free. Then you don't have to guess your equity.

That said, equity doesn't really matter much here. What is your plan on the flop? If your strategy is to set mine, you should fold to the raise. You won't earn enough when you hit to pay for all the times you have to fold. Otherwise, it depends on your range for his 3bet. If it is tight, then you fold. If it is loose, you're going to put your stack at risk and need to call at lease the flop.

Your under the gun.. I think I just fold here... This is so player dependent.. At 1/3 when the V makes it $90 he has QQ+ a lot... BUT, It sounds like maybe this V could do this with a lot of hands that you have good equity against.... Your going to be 1st to act on the flop.. So, when it checks to V and he C-bets your most likely going to be in another tough spot.. I just fold because of position..

I'll disagree with Venice's language a bit, but the sentiment is in the right place. Equity certainly matters, but you have to be able to realize that equity postflop, which is significantly harder to do out of position. There are free phone apps that can do equity calculations on the go. I prefer Holdem LAB. It's a nice freebie and does pretty much what the old pokerstove used to.

I like the way you are taking the math approach to the game. So many don't put in that work. But as you've realized, it doesn't really tell you how best to play against that range, just what your math is right now with 5 cards to come. But you're right. Shoving and folding out his weaker holdings and getting snapped by stronger is bad.

Against a good player I'd fold this. He's probably 3-betting tighter than usual vs an UTG open. His sizing is pretty formulaic (4x + 2x for the limpers) so it's not like we can exploit anything there. JJ plays really bad here. When you've ranged him wrong, you are drawing near dead and throwing in a 1/4 of your stack on a setmine, which is really really bad. If you've ranged him right and you play it perfectly postflop, maybe it's an OK call, but probably still a -EV spot.

The EV equation is the following:

EV = Pr(fold) * Pot + Pr(call) * EVcall

Assuming your numbers are correct for making the all-in bet and that I interpreted the money numbers correctly:

EV = 0.40*139 + 0.60*(0.28*0 + 0.32*(0.19*439 – 0.81*375)) = 13

I also did an analysis where I made no assumptions about villain folding and used Equilab’s equity value for your jacks against villain’s range (45.7%). I found the following:

EV = fe*143 – 3

where fe is the probability villain folds to your all in bet. Therefore you are almost 100% assured of a profitable shove.

Note with the all-in bet you’re equity is realized but the above does not consider other non-math factors that have been mentioned by previous posters.