Friday night at Wynn. Hero sat down about 30 hands ago. Eight handed. Seats 3-6 are fairly passive, seat 8 is a decent young player who is 2 tabling Bovada on his laptop, seat 9 is a tax accountant who is up over $1000 by hitting backdoor draws, seat 1 is somewhat LAG. Hero sits in seat 2.

Villain for this hand is the player in seat 1. His VPIP/PFR is roughly 30/25 at this point. He's usually been making it $10 to go preflop, but occasionally has made it $15. Since the $15 instances were not in early position nor over several limpers I think they indicate the premium portion of his range. Also, he tends to bet a lot of flops for a 1/2 pot sized c-bet, but in one instance in a HU pot after a $15 pfr he bet $25 on a 478r flop and later showed down AK (K hit on turn). Villain starts with about $700.

Hero has not played a single hand up to this point. I think villain is observant enough to notice this. I start with $400.

On to the hand:

Folds to the tax accountant in HJ who limps. Villain raises to $15 in CO. Hero calls OTB with 2 2. Blinds fold, tax accountant folds. $34 in pot after drop.

Flop comes J 7 5. Villain looks slightly uncomfortable, thinks for 10 seconds, then bets $25. Hero ???

At this point I thought about all three options. As I saw it:

a) Raising to something like $60 for value would make sense if he has several hands in his range that just whiffed, i.e. AK/AQ/AT/A9/KQ. Any two cards that whiffed have 24% equity against my hand, and it will be tough to tell whether or not they hit on the turn or river. Since my image is so tight, I tend to rep sets with a raise and may end up folding out hands like A7/88/99/TT.
b) Calling and evaluating later streets controls the size of the pot and carries less risk. If he does have whiffed overs and misses the turn, I expect him to check; if he does that then I can bet the turn and check back the river if he decides to call the turn. If he bets the turn then I fold on any card that didn't make me a set.
c) Folding carries the least amount of risk. I've missed my set and I'm up against a decent player. He can sometimes be betting that big with an overpair/top pair hand to charge diamond draws/gutshots within my range, so he doesn't always have to have a whiffed hand. There are bad players in this game and waiting for a better spot against them might be wise.

Am I leaving out anything in this thought process? Which option do you choose and why? Please also generally describe your thought process for turn and river if you choose a or b.

Calling is bad since there aren't any turn cards you like except a 5 or 2. I'd raise to $85 or fold.

DO NOT float with low pp's. They have little equity to improve when you are indeed behind.

I mean sure peel one with 55 on an 822 flop. But fold to most double barrels.

I would much rather float with A2 here (which I wouldn't have, but you get the point)

I was watching a Stinger video (popular high stakes online player) where he folded something like JJ on a QT2 and commented that if he had ATx he'd peel one. As someone who floats a ton this blew my mind.

Phil Galfond said something similar in an interview in Poker After Dark, when he'd rather have A9 than JT on a T92 flop if he were facing an all in situation (it was a specific situation of course)

If you do raise, do you plan to fire on the turn or check back? The thing I don't like about the raise is that it can create a huge pot with a very marginal situation at best. I'm essentially turning a made hand into a bluff and then flying blind if he continues to the turn.

Ended up folding after thinking for about 15 seconds. If he led smaller I think the amount risked from a raise would be a lot easier to justify, so I can see how his big c-bet can work out well for this type of spot.

I'd give up if the raise is called and just check turn/river hoping he whiffs a draw.

Well ... you have the 2d to start with, so that is good.

If you hit are you going to get paid? Do you have plans to steal if flush hits since you have picked up on the 'discomfort' of V (act?).

I like to raise here since he did show the discomfort and see what happens but probably shut down and see a free River when he checks the Turn. I can put him on 88/99/JJ/AK here a lot.

Calling is probably OK here but you 'need a plan' for this guy if he checks the Turn or a diamond hits, then its really ok ... and you have the 2d. You obv arent calling to set mine here against an unknown that you cant put on AK/AQ very easily.

I have a hard time folding here with this board and the B but that is a game time read for me against a small selection of opponents.

Invest the funds by raising or calling and evaluate the Turn action. I think you can pick this pot up quite often without a showdown ... A/K/diamond/2 ... GL

Fancy plays can be fun but not when I'm only 130bb deep.

I think this usually should be a fold with a few % times of raises mixed in.

honestly, you've sat there for an hour without playing and villain is aggressive, it's a spot where calling has to show a profit imo. I don't think you have to raise here but it probably will work. with the set up you gave us, this is probably a spot where your deuces have showdown value and you have lots of FE

also, this seems like a great spot to squeeze

The board's too connected for me to raise, there are a lot of unpaired hands V can have with solid equity such that he won't fold but we don't like barreling again ott.

With the right texture I'd consider firing, also because you haven't played a hand yet. Your first 3bet preflop of the night should usually be light because you'll get respect the first time... that type of thing.

Calling is the worst option because he can often double barrel with hands that we beat and pocket pairs that are better than ours will win at showdown.

Raising is the 2nd best option. Sometimes we get him off a better hand like pocket pairs below Jx. If we have a read that V can fold overpairs then a raise would probably be best.

Folding is the best option. If we're raising with this hand then we're raising with almost 100% of our range that isn't flatting the flop. And this is just about one of the worst hands to raise with. I'd rather raise with hands like AX , KQ, 89s, 9Ts, ect. that have a bit more equity against his calling range.

Calling is bad, unless you have a plan for the turn....ie...you have seen villan give up on the turn alot.
Folding is fine, standard I would say.
Raising....as long as you realise your not doing it for value....you won't be called by anything that doesn't have big equity against you, and are most likely crushed when villan calls.....so as a bluff....its not the worst board to bluff at, we can rep a jack pretty confidently....its easy for us to have a set also....villans range is alot of missed broadways...so I would say a bluff raise here would be ok....make it about 60/65.....if this is the line you take it is terra-bad weak to give up on the turn though so be prepared to fire another bullet on all turn cards.

Bingo.....

I think I'm in the fold camp. Setmining will quickly become much less profitable if we get too fancy postflop when we whiff and are wrong about villain's holdings.

ETA: If we are continuing, although I do see arguments for a raise, I don't think I would hate a call but usually I'd like a bigger pair here (like 88 on this board) so that we are actually ahead of some bluffs (like 44) and have showdown value. With 22, villain can be bluffing with a better hand here a lot.

Gabc,imoG

Calling is the worst. Raising is ok I guess... I like folding tho. Move on to the hand with minimal losses.

you have to go with your reads here, if you expect him to check/fold overs and other whiffs, call/evaluate is the best play. I can see him c/f 99 against a perceived ubernit