Villain: Solid MAWG reg.

$1/3 NL (8 handed)
UTG
UTG+1
LJ V ($300)
HJ Hero ($300)
CO
Button
SB
BB

Hero is dealt QJ

V opens to $12 from LJ. Hero flats in HJ. Heads up to the flop.

Flop ($28) K95
V checks. Hero bets $15 with gutter and BDFD. V calls.

Turn ($58) K95J
V checks. Hero planned to continue on most cards, but checks after picking up some show down value.

River ($58) K95J3
V bets $25. Do we call here with second pair? Feels like he would have bet a flush draw OTF. Also seems like he would have bet most kings, so I'm not sure what he is repping here.

Thanks in advance.

Probably not

I let this one go. Doesn’t seem like he has any natural bluffs

I don't see much point in calling. We're at best chopping.

[QUOTE=goth money;54957508]Villain: Solid MAWG reg.

$1/3 NL (8 handed)
UTG
UTG+1
LJ V ($300)
HJ Hero ($300)
CO
Button
SB
BB

Hero is dealt QJ

V opens to $12 from LJ. Hero flats in HJ. Heads up to the flop.

Flop ($28) K95
V checks. Hero bets $15 with gutter and BDFD. V calls.

Turn ($58) K95J
V checks. Hero planned to continue on most cards, but checks after picking up some show down value.

River ($58) K95J3
V bets $25. Do we call here with second pair? Feels like he would have bet a flush draw OTF. Also seems like he would have bet most kings, so I'm not sure what he is repping here.

Thanks in advance.[/QUOTE

Does this guy make creative checks? How about hero calls? If we bet turn and river does he ever call down with QQ,AJ? If not I do that.

I think this is actually pretty close, and that V is more polarized when betting this river than it may appear on the surface. A lot of this comes down to how often you think V is checking TP hands OTF. Not knowing the V, I'd say this isn't the ideal flop to be checking TP hands. If you think he's willing to c/c flop with hands like gutters, and he's the type of player who will stab river with no SD value, then this should be a call.

You're ahead of a decent amount combos that he could choose to c/c flop, hands like J10/109/98/87/76. If you believe he'd bet most of his Kx combos OTF then V could have more bluffs than value on this river, especially when he should be c-betting his flush draws pretty often. With the line he took, it feels like Q10/flushes/J9 are his value hands, and all the combos I listed plus whatever spazz factor he may have as his bluffs. I think it's close either way, but his line seems a bit fishy to me and you're getting a decent price, so curiosity would get the best of me here and I'd call.

flop seems like a x, a reg is hardly folding otf once he checks. our blockers arent great for a barrel off either, and if he is very good (most likely not though) his check range will be protected and not super capped on a lot of runouts. i.e. he x some Axcc/Kx here.

This depends on your read of the villain

Most Vs would bet Kx on the flop if they raised preflop.
Most Vs would bet their flush on the turn once they make it.
The only made hands that make sense are J9 and QT that's not the QT of clubs.

This makes it really close. You're getting better than 3-1 pot odds but it's hard to see if V would bluff more than 23% of the time. Most Vs if they were going to bluff would do it on the turn when the club comes and rep the flush/straight.

If I were going to play a long session against the V, I would be inclined to call the $25, even though I expect to lose. Make V show the cards, and take note as to what actions he took. Use that information against the V later. Might be worth the $25 investment.

Folding is definitely reasonable.

Preflop is meh, imo. We'll have position on the raiser and we're getting a decent price, which is good. But if we go multiway we'll have poor relative position (right after the raiser, possibly with others behind us in position). And if we go HU, we're in a pot with a solid reg, which isn't the greatest of spots. Folding is probably nitty, but I'm a nit, so I mostly fold here. If we have a huge postflop advantage on this player, it's probably fine.

How often does a solid reg raise preflop, get it HU OOP, check the flop, and then fold to a bet? 0%? I'm not sure what our overall postflop plan is, but if it involves stealing the pot with one bet on the flop I don't think that's going to work. I don't hate the bet as it might get us to showdown for cheap and might open double barrel opportunities, but I also think taking a free card might be fine too.

Part of me likes checking behind on the turn with our showdown value. Another part of me thinks we're still behind given his early street play and that turning our hand into a bluff (repping the flush) might be better.

Against an ABC clueless guy who is clicking buttons, a river call might be ok. This guy is a solid reg. It really looks like he's played a TP type hand really well against us OOP and is now going for simple two street value. This is also why I really question preflop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Pre: I'm not inclined to flat easily-dominated hands against solid regs with 3 players to act behind me ... but AP....

Check flop for reasons Minatorr stated.

Prefer to bet turn. He has plenty of 88/TT/AQ one-club combos here. It's time to charge them for the river. Also, as Gobbledygeek suggested, H turn bet is repping a flush too which gives H more river betting options and FE.

I'm calling river. We're ahead of a lot of his opening range - 88/TT/AQ/JTs and behind plenty of it he might have taken this line with too - nut flush/QQ/AJs/KJs. But his passivity I think has skewed him more towards the range we're ahead of. And H gets 3-1.

What's V's opening range look like?

100 BB's effective is meh but given 4x open LJ open I rather 3! QJs than call from the HJ. I'd size to $30 and go from there.

Why are we not considering he has a 9? Some people would play flop that way.

What is MAWG? It is not in 2+2 acronym page.

Middle aged white guy as clearly stated on the 2p2 acronyms page.

https://www.twoplustwo.com/acronyms.php#M

Read better.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/1...light=acronyms

Try harder?

Those are separate lists.

Fact.

What’s interesting to me here is the sarcastic response to a peer w 6k posts matter-of-factly telling you otherwise. Instead of, hmmm, maybe there is another list if he is telling me this...? you come up with: ‘read better’.

Wonder how this applies to your poker game, maybe there’s a lesson to be learned? Too deep? lol. Whhhheeeeeeeee.

I definitely think he could have a 9 based on the flop and turn action, but I think he would be more likely to check the river with a 9.