lol and people thought we had the best hand...

This hand makes me want to lean back a little bit toward playing GTO. We know these villains are making a ton of mistakes but it's tough to tell WHICH ones they're making (look at my posts from earlier here, I was way off).

Yea...it’s actually not as good as I thought. I was wrong, river is actually a check.

I was curious so I ran the combinatorics through poker cruncher and there is no way I can reasonably slice it so that we can profitably bet river. Even if they have T3o in their range and always call with worse Tx and even if they raise a lot of their 6x on turn we still can’t bet river. I’m struggling to get us over 40% equity excluding unpaired hands that won’t call us anyway.

They limped gabage, played supper passively, and chased undercards and a gutshot on a paired board. This is how I would expect them to play. Our problem wasn’t that we didn’t play GTO, it’s that we screwed up the combinatorics and overestimated our equity.

If you put that guy on a boat youre a wizard and you need to move up to 25/50 immediately

Betting flop 5-way (or x/c otf) and x/f ott after getting called in 3 spots, which imo is the correct line against live players who can definitely call otf with 6x and obv trap two pairs and sets, i dont think is exactly GTO. Plus GTO isnt really solved for multiway. I think it is more exploitative play/hand reading

2-barreling let alone triple barreling here is pretty big spew

Yeah, sorry, I'm abusing the term GTO here. I think what I really meant was focus on balanced ranges rather than "bet/bet/bet because **** them they're stations"

[PHP][/PHP] I didn’t put him on a boat, I just don’t get how playing GTO would have helped us. Our problem wasn’t that we got exploited because we deviated from GTO, our problem was we bet in a spot where we don’t usually have the best hand and aren’t folding out worse. We don’t need to balance our ranges, we just need to not bet when we are likely behind. Balancing our ranges would be mixing in more checks when we likely have the best hand and this hand isn’t eveidence that we need to do that.

My exploit against the population, as is most people’s on this forum, is to bet more marginal made hands and have a wide betting range without protecting our checking range because our opponents play too wide, call too much, and don’t bluff enough.

An argument to play closer to GTO is if say we routinely bet weak draws and top pair weak kicker type hands and get constantly bluff raised off our equity. Because people don’t bluff raise, i for instance have an obscenely high cbet percentage when I’m in position in heads up pots. If I bet KQ on T62r, I don’t have to worry about someone turning 78 into a bluff. Either he just calls and I get to fully realize my equity or he folds in which case I over realize my equity.

When I'm up against three villains and I have top pair, pretty obviously one of them can't have top pair. So really I'm hoping for a call from any that still do and that the other villain(s) were dumb enough to be calling gutters like 87 or PPs. I sized it really small so that it targets Tx and I can afford to be wrong a huge % of the time (even more than 3/4 of the time when bluffing with a 1/3 pot bet since the times I'm right and I'm not value towning myself I win more than the current pot).

Bluffing 75 for 1/3 PSB on the river 4-way has a 0% chance of success.

The point is I only have to be right less than 1/4 of the time about thin value for this to be profitable. Let's round the numbers and say I bet $60 into $180. Let's say I lose three times. But the fourth time I'm right and get called by worse. Then I win more than $180 and that offsets the times I was wrong.

I get about 43% giving villains these hands

99-77, QcQh, QdQh, QdQc, JcJh, JdJh, JdJc, ATs, Ah6h, Ac6c, KTs, QTs, JTs, T7s+, 98s, 86s+, 75s, 7h6h, 7c6c, 6h4h+, 6c4c+, 53s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 87o

If they have even less 6x we may have over 50%.

This isn't enough to bet for value unless the stations are really really stationy and calling more than just TP but it's pretty close.

I think the hand was played fine. Villains were idiots chasing gutterballs and the like. Usually they miss. We just got a bizarre result where the gutterball got there and the short stack somehow had QQ...

When was the last time a pair won at showdown in a 6-way limped pot with 3 streets of action on a paired board?

This is false.

When it's the river, if you have the best hand, and you get to showdown, you always win the pot, and if you don't have the best hand, you always lose it.

So if you don't go for thin value and you check, let's assume that every time you are good, it checks through. If we use your assumption that you are good 25% of the time, that means 25% of the time you win $180.

But if you do go for thin value, you'll lose $60 75% of the time and win $240 25% of the time.

EV of checking is (.25)(180) = 45
EV of betting is (.25)(240) - (.75)(60) = 60 - 45 = 15

The point is that the 25% of 180 is a constant in both calculations, but if you go for thin value and it's too thin, you'll lose an extra bet more often than you'll win one, dragging down your EV.

If you don't understand this concept, and you also play too many big pots out of position, those two weaknesses are going to compound on each other.

Thanks! Looks like I've just plugged a rather large leak that was pretty basic.

Yeah. This is one of the many reasons I liked the river bet much less than the turn bet. Both bets I think are extremely thin, but on the turn you can get called by draws. On the river you can't.

By the way, now that I've seen results, I'm not in the least bit surprised about either of the following 2 things: first, that no one had trips, which means that we would have still been good on the turn had we been good on the flop; and second, that we were outflopped. This is one of the reasons I said I would never get to the turn the way you did. Personally, if I want to play top pair like it's a strong hand, I'm going to raise preflop.

So much this, imo.

GfourthplacewithTPinthisspotiscompletely~standard, imoG

Btw, if I'm the short stack holding QQ in late position, I'm lol-jamming the flop here. I don't mind collecting 16-17 BB with QQ almost risk free 6-way.
Although I'd never be in this position, since if I'm late position with QQ, I'm raising 100% of the time pre.

Hell, my shove might even get called by TPTK here.

I vote it hasn't ever happened in the history of poker.