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1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep 1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep

03-08-2015 , 04:47 AM
6 handed, 1/3, V and Hero are $360 deep. V is drinking and playing first time here. Inquired earlier if there's a bad beat here, etc. Seems like a rec player.

Hero raises to $12 in EP with TT
V calls
BTN, SB and BB call

Flop ($60): 8 3 4
SB and BB check, Hero bets $30, V quickly raises to $80/90, folds to Hero ?

I know this is a raise $15 preflop/bet $50/fold OTF spot... but my image/history at the table gave me the feeling that I was going to face resistance in this hand and most other stacks besides V were roughly $100-$150 anyway so barring the preflop mistake, I decided to bet small/call against them and bet small/fold against V. So here's the history:

(i) Since V was sitting to Hero's immediate left, he had made it $6 blind UTG twice or thrice earlier, got 4-5 callers everytime, and Hero would make it $30-$40 each time with JJ/QQ/JJ, everyone would fold and Hero started looking FOS after doing it more than once. V would laugh and pass a comment "You could buy me beers with all those $6s I give you everytime".

(ii) Also, every time Hero raised pf, V had a tendency to call in position. One hand Hero raises pf, V calls, Hero cbets into him and another caller and both fold.

(iii) Another hand, Hero raised in MP with KQ, V called again, flop comes JT8, Hero check/calls $17, turn 9, Hero check/raises $30 to $90 and V tank-folded.

So it seems like the table is getting tired of Hero, especially V.

Therefore, although the above hand is a standard b/f, I'm not sure if I should play it differently 5-handed with a ****ty image OOP. Also, I don't want to level myself into thinking a LLSNL villain is raising my cbet to outplay me with 3 others left to act with say, a flush draw, 99 or some trappily-played overpairs. Also, I'm not sure if his range has all sorts of junk like 34, 48 that flopped two pair since my pfr was pretty small.

Are we levelling ourselves and should fold here regardless of history?
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 05:14 AM
If he's been mostly passive to your aggression but is pushing back, let this one go. This could be the spot he's been "waiting" for to get you back. It's a pretty marginal spot. You don't need to win every hand. Fold, let him have this one and go back to getting the best of him. Also, if he is making your life difficult, then switch seats. If not, stay but realize OOP sucks so you're going to have to pass on some marginal spots, like this one.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 06:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eyurus
If he's been mostly passive to your aggression but is pushing back, let this one go. This could be the spot he's been "waiting" for to get you back. It's a pretty marginal spot. You don't need to win every hand. Fold, let him have this one and go back to getting the best of him. Also, if he is making your life difficult, then switch seats. If not, stay but realize OOP sucks so you're going to have to pass on some marginal spots, like this one.
Fully agree with this post. Let this one go.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 08:13 AM
"It can be correct to fold a hand before the river that has a better than 50 percent chance of being the best hand" - Ed Miller, NLHE T&P

I think this falls into that category. V's is going to think A8/99 is the nuts here (especially 6-handed....especially against hero). I also think V would flat hand like AQ pre-flop and then raise here. There's a lot of hands that V could raise here that we beat. Of course, 2pr and sets are possible.

The problem is that the stacks are too deep to comfortably stack off and there's very little chance our hand is going to improve.

I would expect to be ahead here a lot, but I'd still fold. I don't want to play for stacks OOP with such a marginal hand against a guy who's finally showing some aggression.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 08:32 AM
it's tempting to gii here with an over pair but it does feel like a marginal spot. I really like that you had a plan to gii against the short stocks and bet fold against the one big stack. Stick to the plan. when this player raises the flop, I think you can range him on over pairs 99+, small sets, Axs or combo draws like 65s, etc, and while you may have good equity against his range, you can pass on this situation.
it probably wouldn't be a big mistake to come back over the top against him but I think folding is a much better play.
If he's calling your preflop raises light looking to crack you, and then others are coming along in the domino effect, you need to start raising bigger. In this hand, it was five way to the flop which is rough for TT.
Also, you say you have a bad image because you've taken down some pots with aggressive play and no show downs. It's a winning image and they've been folding to you but now are getting ready to play back and go to show down. I think that can be a great image, esp as you've been making plays with big hands. That's another reason to fold TT here but continue what you've been doing and expect to get looked up by a fish tired of being pushed around.
They think you're FOS but you're playing strong hands -- perfect spot for you.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 11:52 AM
Hands villain can have with the call preflop and the raise on the flop;

Board: 8c 3d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.377% 58.38% 00.00% 17338 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ah8h, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, Jd8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
Hand 1: 41.623% 41.62% 00.00% 12362 0.00 { TdTh }

However if he's a bit tighter (i.e, discount all Axs)

Board: 8c 3d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.416% 65.42% 00.00% 13600 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
Hand 1: 34.584% 34.58% 00.00% 7190 0.00 { TdTh }



One could make the case for calling here and folding on a bad turn card (if he bets again) and just folding here.

But if he is wider than the range in hand range 1, then you should call here and get it in on most non-diamond turn cards.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by everydaygrind
Hands villain can have with the call preflop and the raise on the flop;

Board: 8c 3d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.377% 58.38% 00.00% 17338 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ah8h, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, Jd8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
Hand 1: 41.623% 41.62% 00.00% 12362 0.00 { TdTh }

However if he's a bit tighter (i.e, discount all Axs)

Board: 8c 3d 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 65.416% 65.42% 00.00% 13600 0.00 { 88, 44-33, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d }
Hand 1: 34.584% 34.58% 00.00% 7190 0.00 { TdTh }



One could make the case for calling here and folding on a bad turn card (if he bets again) and just folding here.

But if he is wider than the range in hand range 1, then you should call here and get it in on most non-diamond turn cards.
All overpairs should be in Vs range. A raise with four other players on the hand is pretty strong so I prob just let this one go.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 03:18 PM
No history or reads that V is a bluffer man. bc of that I like a fold. JJ sets and flush draws look like the range, we not so good agains that
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 03:39 PM
Could do anything and it probably wouldn't be bad. Some games i would try to get it in here as any 8 will look like the nuts to this guy. But if you think you can comfortably stack him in a much better spot then we can just let it go
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-08-2015 , 04:04 PM
I feel like it really depends on your goal this session. If people have not been looking you up its more likely they will start makin a stand. If your comfortable with the varience I think we can go with this. It's likely a marginal spot but I think we can establish a dominating table presence which is important shorter handed.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-09-2015 , 02:19 PM
Even though we're 6handed, is a $12 raise in a 1/3 NL game going to narrow the field? When we go 5way (is this a surprise?), we might as well be setmining, imo, and thus should have just opened limped (or raised bigger to narrow the field). Actually, knowing that a lot of the stacks are short, just open to 10%+ (so long as that narrows the field) and go from there.

I'm cool with the small cbet size. I just don't think anyone is going to get out-of-line in a 5way pot on a drawy board, so I would fold to the raise (possibly only considering calling a raise versus a gambooley shortstack, but we can't continue against a deeper stack).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-09-2015 , 02:30 PM
I agree and I would just fold and wait for a better spot.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote
03-09-2015 , 02:45 PM
call
see a turn, how bad can that be? going with it on most turns though, hard to have two pair here, hard to make a set, easy to get mad at hero, easy for a fish to raise any pair in this spot bc iz da best hand

btw, i really like a raise with any pair in his spot.
1/3: Overpair facing flop raise, 120 BB deep Quote

      
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