Table is primarily full of competent regs, with seat 4 and 5 the only real spots on the table, just looking for help on the math here, if you have any comments the hand itself those are welcome too.
Hero (550) is viewed as somewhat LAGGY, have won a few pots in the last orbit without showdown (V1 is likely not concerned with my image)
V1 (seat4) (350) is an older gent who plays his hand face up, loose pre, willing to commit $ OTF and release on later streets without much qualm. Easy spot to semi-bluff and capitalize on his FE or get paid big when the draw comes in.
V2 is a good LAG, we have mutual respect and pretty much stay out of one another's way.
V2 staddles on the button
V1 limps SB.
Folds to Hero, who raises to 21 w/ Q
T
in Lojack.
Folds to button, who calls.
V1 in SB calls.
Flop (60) J
9
6
V1 checks. Hero bets 35. V2 folds. V1 calls.
Turn (130) T
V1 bets 75.
Hero?
My question is how much do we have to win on the end to make this a call if we assume V1's range is primarily sets and two pair?
Having to call 75 into 205, hero is getting ~2.7-1 in immediate odds.
Assuming 8 outs against the majority of V1's range, Hero has 18% equity, needing 4.5-1 to break even.
4.5 - 2.7 = 1.8
1.8 * 75 = 135
Adjusting for those times that V1 already has a straight, or those times where Hero improves to still second best and loses more, would it be accurate to assume that Hero must win $185 more in order to breakeven?