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1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet 1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet

10-17-2014 , 01:02 PM
Hero ($300): Young reggish guy, sat down at table a couple hands ago

V ($1000): Looks like a complete drooler/fish, gives action preflop, was V2 in this thread: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-them-1482592/

Hero limps 56dd UTG+1 (because of V in BB), CO raises to $13, SB calls, V calls (all except V have roughly $300)

Flop ($52): Kd 4c 7s
V checks, Hero checks, CO bets $30, SB calls, V calls, Hero calls

Turn ($172): Ad
SB checks, bets $100, Hero ??? (CO seems ready to fold)

Last edited by fizzypants; 10-17-2014 at 01:28 PM.
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 01:21 PM
Yeah, fold pre. Or raise so it can get heads up.

Unsure what you're asking about on turn. You're getting close to 3 to 1 with OESD+FD with 1 to come and $150 left in stack and you're ~30% vs a set. Seems like an easy call and fold on river if you miss and getting it in when you hit.
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10-17-2014 , 01:24 PM
Well, two things.

I think the pot on the flop is supposed to be 65. I assume Hero calls as well, so 5 handed, it's 65.

2nd, he's never folding to a shove on the turn. I'm guessing he's made a two pair type of hand to lead out like that. You're calling 100 to win 272 plus the other 150 in your stack, so implied odds you're getting 5:1 if he calls every river. You only need 2:1 with that many outs, so I'm calling and folding when I miss.

EDIT:

Also, I don't mind the preflop call with suited connectors, I would however advise you to not call a raise unless it's called like 2 or 3 ways before it gets to you. My games play very limpy, so I limp 56s OOP because I'm pretty sure no one is going to raise it.

Last edited by blackwalnut; 10-17-2014 at 01:26 PM. Reason: added a point
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 01:26 PM
Call and get there obviously.
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackwalnut
Well, two things.

I think the pot on the flop is supposed to be 65. I assume Hero calls as well, so 5 handed, it's 65.
It was actually $52, BTN wasn't probably involved.. edited HH
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackwalnut
Also, I don't mind the preflop call with suited connectors, I would however advise you to not call a raise unless it's called like 2 or 3 ways before it gets to you. My games play very limpy, so I limp 56s OOP because I'm pretty sure no one is going to raise it.
So you're advising to limp SCs in EP even if it's guaranteed that some guy will make it $10-$15 in LP, and there'll be 2-3 or more callers to the flop?
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 01:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants
So you're advising to limp SCs in EP even if it's guaranteed that some guy will make it $10-$15 in LP, and there'll be 2-3 or more callers to the flop?
No. I'm saying I would be ok with limping it because people won't raise often. If people do raise, then I'm normally thinking 10x, 20x, 30x rules. However, if before if becomes my turn to act, and 2 or 3 people have called, I'm fine with calling, but I'm my intent isn't to limp/call.

If the game has lots of preflop raising, then I'm not limping suited connectors.
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10-17-2014 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackwalnut
You're calling 100 to win 272 plus the other 150 in your stack, so implied odds you're getting 5:1 if he calls every river. You only need 2:1 with that many outs, so I'm calling and folding when I miss.
Can you explain how the IO are 5:1? I'm calling $100 to win $170 + his $100 turn bet + his $150 river call (most probably) = $420, so I'm getting 4.2:1 implied odds right?

Also, I have 15 outs OTR which is 15/46 = 32% or 3:1 so how do I need 2:1?

Sorry, maybe my math sucks
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10-17-2014 , 02:12 PM
I'm dumping suited connectors in EP, especially the weaker ones, even at super passive tables. We can open up our range of playing these hands in LP, imo.

I probably sigh call the raise cuz I'm closing the action, will be going 4way to the flop, and will have position on two of the players (including the drooler), but I don't feel great about it.

I'm also just calling the flop. We're already almost getting the required immediate odds plus should have some decent implied odds since 3 opponents are interested in this pot. All of our outs are clean and fairly well disguised.

We're getting 2.7:1 immediate odds. The drooler seems very interested in this pot, so my guess is if we hit we get his remaining $157 quite a lot. We have 6 outs to the nuts and 9 outs to what will most likely be the best hand, for 15 overall, so that gives us about ~30% equity, which is a little over ~2:1. If we didn't have the CO and SB to react behind us, this would be a snap call. However, I think we have to take our chances here, especially if CO looks disinterested (one of the reasons we'd much rather be playing this hand in LP). I call and ship the river if I hit the straight or flush.

I would not raise (i.e. ship) the turn because against droolers in general we should have little FE (which is why playing hit-our-hand poker is so profitable against them), plus this guy did bet into 3 opponents on the turn (which indicates a strong hand in general).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 02:14 PM
Call.
Get paid when you get there.
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants
Can you explain how the IO are 5:1? I'm calling $100 to win $170 + his $100 turn bet + his $150 river call (most probably) = $420, so I'm getting 4.2:1 implied odds right?

Also, I have 15 outs OTR which is 15/46 = 32% or 3:1 so how do I need 2:1?

Sorry, maybe my math sucks
Yes, your implied odds are 4.2:1, and given the strength he is showing you can pretty much assume he'll stack off the vast majority of the time (so perhaps downgrade your implied odds to like 4:1 which will take into account the few times he folds, or the times he has a better flush draw than ours and we both get there).

I use the "rule of 2 and 4" to estimate our percentage, which is multiplying our number of outs by 2 with 1 card to come (or by 4 with 2 cards to come). So a decent estimate here is 15 * 2 = 30%. Keep in mind that 2:1 is 33% (3:1 is 25%, 4:1 is 20%, etc.), so it looks like you are off a bit when converting percentages into ratios. Since our implied odds are around 4:1, we have an easy call (*if* we can assume the players behind us aren't going to ship it).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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10-17-2014 , 02:40 PM
32% is 2:1, not 3:1.

E;f,b. Yeah, just go ahead and call to stack him when you hit. Your immediate odds are good enough as is, and it's possible another one of the villains comes along.
1/3: OESD/FD facing big turn bet Quote
10-17-2014 , 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fizzypants
Can you explain how the IO are 5:1? I'm calling $100 to win $170 + his $100 turn bet + his $150 river call (most probably) = $420, so I'm getting 4.2:1 implied odds right?

Also, I have 15 outs OTR which is 15/46 = 32% or 3:1 so how do I need 2:1?

Sorry, maybe my math sucks
Sorry, I think I added the other 150 in your stack for some reason. My bad.
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