Hi everyone,

I had a spot come up last night that I don't think it's as trivial as it might seem but interested in what you guys think.

Hero - Mid 30's white guy who wears polo and looks like a dad I guess? I dunno. My image is more on the LAG side at this point in the session however, I have only shown down winners and I'm up to 1180 from my original 500 buy in

Villain - late 20's euro who has been opening fairly wide, and has played reasonably post flop however, he's been caught bluffing once or twice while also taking some winners to showdown. My impression of him is he kind of plays like me. More LAG than TAG at these stakes and probably feels he's one of the better if not the best player at the table

Hero (BTN) $1180 - KJ

Folds to Villain (HJ) $585 who opens for $15, Hero Flats (after I cut out a three-bet to $40 - which I feel like I should be doing 70-80 percent of the time here in this spot but oh well)

Flop ($33)

KJ6

Villain Checks, Hero Bets $20, Villain thinks for a while and calls.

Turn ($73)

2

Villain checks, Hero bets $40, Villain (looks at me, chips, back to me) $140, Hero Calls.

River ($357) 10

Villain Jams for $400, Hero?

Gross. Great bet/line by V is he's bluffing. Honestly, it's a table soul-read. From my computer, I fold.

3bet pf.

as played, probably check turn. We aren't getting 3 streets with this hand - let's use our position.

Fold to the turn XR.

Like our seat selection (to the left of the ~best player at the table non-short, a must imo).

I'm fine with anything preflop (we're also allowed to fold preflop against the ~best player, even with position, but obviously continuing is fine too).

I'm fine with the flop bet. Highly doubt the villain is raising preflop to check/fold the flop, so let's get some value.

I probably lean to checking back the turn. We could be behind. If he has a weak hand we don't want to lose him and are fine getting in just one more bet on the river. We're fine inducing a bluff on the river for one bet. We kinda hate facing a check/raise here we like we did (which puts us in a stupid spot, imo). We really missed out on using our position here to control the pot size.

Another good thing about checking back the turn is that it closes the door on playing for stacks, which we rarely want to do with top two pair (imo). So by the river we've now put ourselves to facing a dumb decision. A weirdo gutshot got there too and it's possible we were behind all along, so I mostly just fold but I fold easily.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What's your range for villain here?

He opens from HJ then checks the KJ6 two-tone flop. Given we have KJ we have to seriously discount top pairs and theres only 6 combos of overpairs availability to villain. Mostly villain would bet flop with his KX and AA. So what are we betting for value against on the flop?

Basically we're mostly getting value (from a good thinking player) from FDs, OESDs, and OOP floats with AsX (AsJx AsQx, AsTx). There's also a handful of weak KX/JX and TT- we can expect to get one bet out of I suppose.

What's our betting range supposed to look like on the flop? A mixture of KX+, semibluffs with FDs/OESDs and gutshots plus backdoor nfds.

When the turn brings the flush what should we keep betting other than our flushes? Probably I'd bet/fold some weaker top pairs and continue to semi-bluff my AsXy hands. I guess I'd take the free card with my sets.

Two pair doesn't have as much equity as a set but I'm still tempted to just take the free card though now it's more just for pot control.

I'm more inclined to check turn the more aggro and good villain is. I'm aware I'm sacrificing protection for pot control and I'm happy with that.

As played I think fact river completes the straight for some of villain's turn bluffs (AsQx) inclines me to fold. Now only his AsJx and AsTx are behind us. Also even an aggro villain has to be a little wary of shoving this river without the nuts after you call the turn raise. Bluffing AsJx/AsTx is a bit scary for him as you could conceivably have done this with AxQs and decide this is a good point to look him up.

If villain is good and has courage then he'll be somewhat well balanced on this river and so you're probably close to indifferent about calling or folding.

I can't see a scenario here where you're ever confident this is definitely a profitable call on the river.

So I fold river but I'd not have bet turn.

And I concur DooDooPoker that turn should be a bet/fold not a bet/call.

100 additional call to boat up is that bad of a call on the turn? Or just not optimal - IE should have either checked back the turn and just evaluated river or bet folded?

Between checking back turn or bet folding which is optimal?

IDK about 3-betting KJdd pre. I'd rather do it with weaker hands like K9s that don't really wanna just flat.

I don't think villain's range contains any AsXx that's bluffing here. The only combo I can think of if AQo with the Ace of spades, which rivered a straight. QQ with the Qs would be a good bluff candidate here.

Also, we should have way more flushes in our range as I doubt he'd check back low flush draws on the flop, so I fold this hand as gross as it is.

Remind me to never sit at the same table as you, even with position on you. That’s excellent analysis.

Awesome input so far - what do you guys make of the fact he raised pre and then checks the flop? To me I am thinking if he has a FD on the flop he’s c-betting? I mean sure this flop hits my range but if he has any Axss he’s got decent equity against even the top of my range in this spot which btw would not be AK based on my image (I 3 bet roughly 5-6 times in 2 hours so far and I’m already very balanced at this point)

If you look at PIO this flop is essentially a range check for HJ. PIO will check around 90% of its range.

Not sure if Villain knows this (probably not). But the flop check doesn't mean much wrt to his range (theoretically).

You have it backwards. You should be more likely to 3bet strong hands not weaker ones.

Thanks but I wouldn't worry if I were you sat at my table - my analysis in the heat of battle isn't quite like my analysis in slow time sat at home

What range does PIO bet here?

I'd prefer to 3-bet weak and strong hands while flatting middling ones. I don't consider KJdd strong enough to 3-bet for value.

I would check behind in this spot most times. Posts below were excellent regarding why. Given the pre-flop read on villain, I don't hate the bet/call though. If I am bet/calling the turn, I'm definitely tanking the river shove and hating both of my options. This open shove on the river in this spot is so often the nuts, but I think the nuts leads the turn more than c/r. We didn't 3-bet pre and our flop bet looks like any standard bet from the button when checked to, the c/r from villain seems a bit aggro i.e. may read us weak (we've so far made no real show of strength) and thinks we may fold to the move on the scare card, but we don't fold. What's our range look like to him now that we call the big c/r on the flush card?? KxQs, AsJx, AsTx, QsTx I think are more likely for him to put us on than top 2 or a set w/ no .
OTR...is this villain checking any river, barring whichever card dropping that either F's him or he perceives F'd him, after making that move on the turn? We also beat two hands easily capable of making that move that I don't think were mentioned, AsAx and AsKx (we didn't 3-bet pre, his check/call and c/r make sense for both given that we've shown no aggression). I don't know how 1/3 is at the Wynn but where I play "opening wide" can include opening with 6h2h and 4s7s from EP in both 1/3 and 2/5 (specific examples from this past week off the top of my head). As played, like Javanewt put it, it's a table soul-read on the river. The specifics of the bluffs you mentioned he got called on, how wide you've noted his opening range to be, and whatever else you observed from him throughout the night and this hand also play a factor in your decision to bet/call the turn and whatever decision you made on the river.

3-bet pre ("which I feel like I should be doing 70-80 percent of the time here in this spot but oh well)" sounds just like something I say in my head far too often

Flop is fine as it went.

Check back on turn. Consider folding to c/r.

As played, puke and call river. You're not calling the $100 on the turn if you think you're behind and have a 4 outs. T is obv not a pure blank but far from disaster.

mixed strat but monsters and hands that block Villain's strongest continuing range (aka 6x hands). Can range check to simplify the strategy.

so you 3bet more polarized? That strategy is definitely viable.

I know those feels

He has the As in his hand no matter what. Turn is a cool check considering and then you just have to field a psb otr and probably fold.

Yeah lol, it doesn't really help us get to showdown against an aggro villain - just saves us money if we don't boat up.

Question: do you think a typical LAGgy villain will bluff the river more frequently if...

1) ...he gets to X/R turn and shove river or....

2) ...we check behind on turn so villain only gets one more bet?

I often wonder about this in these spots: personally I'd be less willing to bluff river if I missed a X/R on turn because I figure I'll get looked up too often for "just a pot sized bet". However, I also think other players in my game will actually prefer to make the smaller, single bet bluff and shy away from the all-in river bet after the turn check/raise.

Thoughts?

H is capped preflop so Villain can either float his Asx/spaz or slow-play his sets on a wet board. This demonstrates the need to 3b pre, because we've opened the door to subsequent aggression from this clever V.

As Amanaplan and others suggest, V likely cannot make the turn raise without As. Hero is not overcalling with a small flush (jam) or KQo/QTs (fold) here ever, so H caps himself again to made hands he might flat preflop - KJ/66.

This sets up V's river jam on any scare card - all spades, T and Aces - a total of 16 cards. V chooses a polarized jam rather than value-towning Hero with the nuts. We're getting 2-1 on a call. V has plausibly 4 combos of AsQx and 5 remaining KK/JJ/66 versus 2 AsJx, AsTx and loads of spaz floats and combos.

For me, the fulcrum issue is whether V can raise this turn with a set. If we think he can, we should fold to this jam, since V knows we probably would've 3b preflop with AQ. If not, we should call since we're getting 2-1 and the combinatorics suggests that's a good price if we exclude sets from his range.

I'm folding here reluctantly because I feel like V could've taken this line with a slow-played set and all his AsQx. But it's close.

I recognize PIO says to check (interesting. I assume out of fear of raises, which is less an issue at 1/3?), but I think standard euro-lag lsnl players will usually bet their flush draws on this flop. I think I often would too, especially because it is high cards I can have and I want you to fold hands like 22-tt, AT and maybe fold your jacks on the turn. I don't want you to pick up a huge draw with 78h or something either. Plus I want to build a pot in case I hit since it is 1/3 and I expect to be paid off.

The turn CR initially feels like an ace of spades hand to me. If he thought longer than usual on the flop, I'd weight it that way even more because it takes a while to think out, "...and, i can CR if a spade comes."

I tend to agree with SpanishMoon that river is a reluctant fold. At the end of the day, 1/3 Vs rarely bluff this big. AQ got there.

Even if bluffing sometimes, I think a lot of guys might do something like bluff for $200-300 and shove for $400 when they hit, especially a straight, since that's less obvious.

Ended up being a better hand to discuss than I even thought.

So a little other into my thought process. I had this gut feeling he was going to try to take me off the hand, and then I knew he was going to jam the river after I called turn regardless. My instinct based on several thousand of live poker said call -

Anyway I ended up putting in the call and he turned over A8 Spades. his check call on the flop really got in my head. I honestly thought if anything he backdoored a set by accident on the turn or river - no way I thought he had a flush in this exact spot based on reads and the action.

The point everyone makes about AQ getting there is significant - it takes a lot of bluff combos out of the range.

Not sure how much I like his play at these stakes. If he was planning to CR almost all turns, I like it better. He should force you off a lot of hands and only really get shoved on by KJ and 66, though, at these stakes you certainly can't assume people 3! JJ or even KK. But on the other hand, they might just call the turn CR with 2P or even a set and allow you to play perfectly OTR.

If he was only going to CR when hitting, I really dislike it.

I think the CR could be a bit bigger so he doesn't have to shove more than pot OTR.

I think A LOT of players in your spot just check the turn when the spade comes. However, maybe he understood that you were good enough to not always assume every flush draw hits.

Against standard loose passives, I think you make the most by semi bluffing, and just bet bet betting when you hit. But again, he might have discerned you were more advanced.