Villain is very loose-passive pre. He is directly to my right, and over the past two hours I have won a lot of pots without showdown against him (often when he called a small c-bet and then folded to a turn bet). I have a winning image, and I haven’t been caught bluffing.

Table is 7-handed. Villain ($500; we cover) opens to $13 in MP. I look down at KK in HJ and 3bet to $40. Folds to villain, who very quickly calls.

Flop ($78): 954
Check, I bet $25, call.

Turn ($128): 3
Check, I bet $90, call.

River ($308): 7
Villain looks at the river card and subtly nods his head up and down a few times, then quickly cuts out chips and bets $140.

Thoughts on bet sizing? (Should flop or turn be bigger?) And thoughts on river? Does your answer about what to do on the river change if there were no tell (or reverse tell??)?

Your sizing is good in a vacuum but vs someone who calls too much I'd size up a little bit everywhere with the plan of jamming river on favorable run outs.

As played I'd reluctantly fold. Guys like this are unlikely to turn pairs into bluffs. You only beat naked flush draws and holding the K is bad as well.

I would size flop exactly the same, but you could go bigger because it's lol LLSNL. I'd probably go slightly larger on the turn just to make the river an easier shove. I wouldn't put any stake in the tell at all...I would call river.

You say he’s passive pre but don’t mention post. Without a read I call, we’re near the top of range

When a passive player becomes aggressive on the river after you've been raising and betting the entire hand, a pair isn't going to be good. Fold.

I'd make a nitty, frustrating fold vs. a passive player leading into our obvious over pair.

Flop - vs. a LP pre raise/call, opponent range should be weighted more towards pp, so I'd size up. Holding the Ks also reduces the FD combos that might take this line pre. He's not folding QQ/JJ/TT.

Why did you mention the nodding and other behavior? You think you have a tell on him? A reverse tell? You're leveling yourself. Stationfish calls down on worlds worst runout and then donks river, you dont think he has a 6?

Whoops, I didn't see four to a straight

Bigger flop, 1/2 pot or larger. $25 gives him really good price ($25 for $103) to continue with draws.

Then turn should be a check or small sizing (your hand got worst). Evaluate river.

Personally, I'm not a fan of the sizing on any street.

I think we should be going much larger preflop since we'll most likely be setting up a postflop commitment spot. We ended up setting up an extremely awkward middling SPR of 6 (very uncomfortable commitment SPR while offering fairly ~juicy 19:1 IO). Albeit we do have position and I guess if we're 3betting a lot with a wide range of hands (which I'm assuming you're doing a lot more of than I am) then I guess that's worth consideration.

Really dislike our flop (32% PSB) versus turn (78% PSB) sizing; on average and in general our %PSB should be reducing (if anything) as streets go by, not increasing by huge amounts, imo. Especially if we feel committed (although it is unclear to me if we feel we are).

By the river, I don't factor in this "tell" whatsover (I don't even have any clue what it is supposed to mean). For me it's all about whether this guy can bluff and rep the 4-to-a-straight when his flush draw busts. Enough do, so unless he's really just face up never-bluffy ABC I think it's probably a crying call at this point.

GcluelessingeneralnoobG

Literally everything you said is wrong lol.

Reasons?

I can see why you disagree about preflop if you have a much wider 3bet range than I do (fair enough), but if you have a more face up tighter 3bet range like me then you'd better not be offering good IO when putting yourself in easy commitment spots.

You think the standard %PSB line should be 25% on the flop on 75% on the turn? People are much more apt to call flop bets as their hand has only started to develop, and much less to call turn bets as their hand often is dead now. I see no reason why 25%/75% should be the default sizing line (and it should be almost the exact opposite). Even moreso if we think we've committed ourselves preflop (i.e. where we should be getting in as much as possible ASAP on early streets when we think we're ahead and leaving little IO for later streets when we could have been sucked out on).

River is whatever by the time we get here and pretty read dependent. But almost all players will take advantage of bluffing a 4-card-straight when their flush draw busts, so I think I lean to the crying call for these odds.

Gwhydoyoudisagree?G

How come I got an infraction for standing up for liberty, yet GG is yet to receive one for continuously trolling the strat threads?

I'm implying that your uber-nit 3-bet range is theoretically wrong because it's easy to play against. Of course you're gonna make it huge because you don't want them to hit a set on you. And when you make it huge people can just fold to you nearly every time and be correct in doing so. Now of course in practice not everyone folds, but we're talking theory here.

On the flop you want to bet huge because you want to be all-in ASAP to simplify decisions, but once again that's super easy to play against because they can just fold to you and you don't put any of their weak hands in a tough spot by betting so large. You also make it really expensive for yourself to bluff, but maybe you never bluff so it's a moot point. Basically anyone paying attention (I realize most people don't) should never pay you off.

On the river you are relying on a passive player to turn missed flushes into bluffs (I doubt you're going to see pairs bluffing very often) and you hold a card that blocks a lot of flush draws. Pretty much all around LOL.

If you think I'm trolling, then report me.

I don't know what to tell you 67o. Unlike almost everyone else who posts in this forum, my giraffes are posted regularly in plain sight for everyone to see / lol at. This is my strategy, and those are my results using this strategy. You don't have to agree with them, but to call it trolling is lol-able.

GhasnevertrolledastratthreadG

GG likes to make his life simple while sacrificing a lot of EV, and his strategy won’t work vs good players. Good thing he’s playing LLSNL

SABR, do you think anyone is going to fold a flush draw or OESD to any PSB- on the flop to anyone? I don't. If you think they will, then you'll have a different idea of what to bet here.

Disagreeing on preflop due to our styles is fine (I'm not surprised). River I think is close but we're getting well over 3:1 to make the call; we lose a whole bunch, but I think we win just barely enough.

My main overall comment was with regards to our flop versus turn sizing. You think a standard / default flop versus turn sizing is 25% versus 75%? If so, yeah, we disagree. Would be *extremely* shocked to find out the forum consensus is otherwise.

GcluelessNLnoobG

How often do you think they have a flush draw or oesd?

Also, simple question, but what do you think is worth more, the "forum consensus" in a beginner forum or the opinion of someone who beats $25/50?

As far as the river goes I guess calling is probably less of a mistake for you in theory because you only ever get here with overpairs. For me KK with a spade is not that good of a hand here to call with because I can also have 99, 54s, 76s, 86s, A2s that play this way.

My thinking on the flop is they mostly have something worth calling with or they don't. We're simply not going to eke out very much money out of third pair here very often, and doing it at the expense of hands that we can get money out of (such as the rare flush draw / OESD) simply ain't worth it. So target the hands that can call and basically ignore the ones that can't (and this is even more true if we feel we are committed, although I am unclear exactly what our commitment plan is in this hand or whether we even have one). Again, this might be slightly biased due to our different images and preflop 3bet ranges, but that's how I approach it from my end; OP may have to adjust based on where he feels he falls on the nit-versus-aggrotard spectrum.

Regarding 25% flop versus 75% turn, you're really going to have to enlighten us with your reasons (instead of steaks) so we can come to our own conclusions, imo. As well, based on some of the HHs you've posted in the chat thread, your $25/$50 games built around massively deep whales seems like it may play a little different that your run-of-the-mill casino 1/3 NL game (fair comment?).

Gcluelesslol1/3NLnoobG

Umm if people are folding pairs to you for one bet there's something very wrong with your game. Your plan should be to aim for three streets of value on favorable run outs. You won't always get one, but this is why it's important to have more than big pairs in your 3-bet range. What's a bad run out for KK should sometimes hit other holdings you might have, and sometimes you are bluffing so you want the option to bluff multiple streets.

All of this is moot if you simply blast your overpairs and have nothing else in your range, but again, that's theoretically easy to defeat (no one should ever pay you off).

GG we bet small on flop because it’s a tough flop to hit and it will put a lot of their range (over cards) in a bad spot. We are also asserting our big range advantage so can bet full range for this sizing. Personally I’d go a little bigger when draws are present and save this sizing for lock down boards like 933r

Again, most of my comment is regards to the difference in %PSB sizing OP chose here from flop to turn. If you want to argue for a small flop bet, alright. But, in general, is your turn bet a massive 3x the size of your flop bet in terms of %PSB?

GcluelessbetsizingnoobG

You're absolutely right, no one should ever pay me off if I barrel 3 postflop streets for stacks.

But you're making it out as if I'm the only one at your typical 1/3 NL table that fits this category. I ain't. The vast majority of your typical 1/3 NL table fits into a very similar category regarding what people are showing up with when their fourth consecutive bet goes in on the river. Again, it will be up to OP decide how far outside the normal spectrum he falls. But if he doesn't fall to outside the norm (where you likely fall) then he'll likely be far better off simply getting in the chips ASAP when he likely has better (taking advantage of one of the most common traits of poor losing players which is playing too loose for too much on early streets).

GcluelessNLnoobG

On the turn lots of hands improved their equity so we size up