Hi All. Had a pretty sizable hand from MGM National Harbor that I played on Saturday night.

Background

Hero: $465, tag image, raise a couple pots in position

Villain: ~$3000, seems like standard live player, limps behind quite a bit, will open raise occasionally

History between us:

I raise AJ OTB to 17 after 3 limps, Villain and HJ call.

A72r flop

Hero bets $35, villain check-minraises to $70

Hero thinks a bit and calls.

Villain bets $70 on 5x turn, Hero calls

Villain checks 2x river, Hero checks back (after pondering whether to shove)

Hero wins pot with AJ, villain shows A8 (he checkraised flop with TPWK)

Later on, I tell villain he's doing pretty well, and he says, not really, now you owe me $200 I also asked him whether he would have called if I had shoved, and he said no way.

----

Hand in Question

Hero checks behind in BB with Q7, 5 limpers

Flop: 372

Hero bet $15, Villain calls, HJ calls

Turn: 7

Hero bets $45, Villain calls

River: J

Hero bets $75, Villain raises to $250

What's my play here? What is villain's range? Feel free to comment on any part of the hand and/or the previous hand as well. Thanks all!

Villain's range is super wide, but yours looks like a naked 7. He'd be fool to raise river w/o a hand that beats a 7 because most players can't fold trips. I would fold and if he shows you a bluff, more power to him.

Tough spot compounded by what I think is a mistake on your part on the river (and a mistake in betting the flop IMO).

I think this is a bad river to bet on, I'd strongly lean towards a x/call line allowing him the opportunity to bet a missed Heart Flush draw or a missed open ended straight draw.

Villain is telling you he has a flush (probably A3dd or maybe A5/A4 since he called a flop bet), Two's full or Three's full. Honestly all of those hands make sense to me as played. The only hand you are beating is a missed FD/SD that's getting tricky on the river.

Bet Folding your hand on the river is really tough to to do, but is probably the right play. If you think he could turn a missed draw into a river bluff raise, then you have to call.

Forgot to add:

Villain called the clock on me after I thought for a couple minutes. Floor came and started the countdown. Thanks!

potting flop is bad
betting river seems bad after potting flop/turn, x/decide is more reasonable

If it were me I would check river and call this guy's river bet. Flushriders are all over the lowest limits of no limit. These guys are like cockroaches with their flush draws.

C/c river to let busted draws bluff. It's hard for V to have a hand that calls a river bet, unless he actually has a 7.

As played, this guy is a button clicking fish. I would call.

Potting flop is definitely not bad.
I dont think b/f river is bad but Id probably c/c since hes the type to bluff his missed draws.

Against this villian id probably c/c turn to let him rep the 7 we have.

Ap I fold river especially when he calls clock plus live players dont bluff when bd fl draws get home. I made that mistake when I bluffed the bd fl draw that villian didnt even see lol. He asked me after the hand what I was trying to rep and he was clueless that it hit.

I play all streets the same. In this spot MAYBE I 50/50 bet and check river, but I think betting is fine. At 1/3, most V's don't have any bluffs in their range here. I think they fold missed hearts a ton and call with any of their 1 pair hands.

Like another poster said, if he bluffed you here, more power to him. Given the run out, I just don't see V have any bluffs in here unless he thinks you are a super tight player and could fold a straight or 7 once the backdoor flush comes.

River is one of the easiest check/calls I've ever seen. What are you expecting to get value from with a bet here? The case 7x? He's going to bet that OTR if you check to him anyway.

Leading out the flop with Q7o is not the most profitable plan of attack on this flop 5 handed. Even if you are ahead now, there are very few easy runouts where you'll be in easy spots. This also bloats the pot moving forward with a marginal hand. Other than a non heart Q or another 7, whats a good turn? With 2 callers, I could easily see someone with 2 overs and a flush draw + someone else on a straight draw or maybe even a better 7 (A7s or KSs)

Think I've seen someone sitting with $3000 at a 1/3 NL table exactly twice. I'm assuming he has a $300 stack?

Preflop looks obvious.

I'm cool with whatever on the flop. If we're betting, I'd probably bet slightly less (we're not looking to build a big pot). I'm also fine with checking in this meaningless pot and see what happens (folding pretty easily to any action I don't like).

Villain seems a little aggro given his overplay of the other hand. I think I might lean towards checking the turn. If he has a draw, he might be aggro enough to bet it himself. If he has a 7x, he's betting 100% of the time; if we bet, he could put us in a really gross spot by raising (is he overvalueing or does he have us crushed?). It's also possible he's ahead. Against a more passive / calling station / non-overvalue opponent I'd lean towards a bet, but here I'd lean towards a check.

As played, I think I'd lean towards a check on the river unless this guy has really shown he can pay off value bets. Our hand looks exactly like it is (or better) if we bet it; are we really getting paid off by worse? If we check we could get busted draws to bluff at it, and even weaker 7x are typically going to bet for us.

As played, I fold. I typically reserve bet/folding to straightforward easy-to-read opponents that I have a good handle on. This guy doesn't necessarily sound like that guy, so betting the river really opens us up to be being blown off a big pot / paying off to a better hand for huge chips in a limped pot, which ain't good.

GmrpassiveG

By raising to $250 on the river, the villain is putting in $3 + $15 + $45 + $250 for a total of $313. I think the OP would have said Villain goes all in on river, instead of saying raising to $250. I think the villain may actually have $3,000 in play...

^^^$500 buy-in cap at 1/3 MGMNH. So V probably has a 3K stack.

Hi guys....right, he was actually about $3k deep. Had a ton of green $25 chips, about 5-6 stacks of them plus a couple $5 red stacks.

agree with river bet being pretty bad, what is gonna call you?

as played, you are the BB. you got 22, 33, 77, 72, 73, J7, A7, K7. you got tons of better hands to defend here, even if he is overbluffing on the river, which is very very rare in these games imo, you can fold this hand without getting exploited. It´s one of your worst valuebetting hands otr, rather easy fold as played imo, but again, why bet in the first place?

I also think you need to work on your sizing. Flop is too big, turn you bet like you are completely in love with your hand (which you are), river you bet like you are now a little bit uncertain (which you are). he might pick up on that.

anyway, back to river, even from an exploitable point of view, you bet three times, your hand looks exactly what it is, he still raises you, and you got a ton of better hands to defend against him.