Thank you!! This is very helpful. I didn't think/plan that deep when I was in the hand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
With a straddle on and a $300 stack, this gives us an opportunity to raise slightly larger than normal and get in 10% of our stack preflop such that we can stack off postflop on non-******ed boards. So I would raise to $30 preflop.
As played, our smaller raise has created an SPR upwards of 9ish. We just can't be stacking off with this SPR unless against a truly horrendous opponent. This SPR is also difficult to bet/fold 3 streets with because by the final street we're not going to have much left (we're going to be committed, unless all our bets are very small). So I think we're going to have to attempt getting a street to check thru.
Since we'd love a street to check thru, I'd start with checking the flop and see if that works. If we are going to bet, I'd bet small (no more than 1/2 PSB). I don't like the big bet at all unless we were planning on checking the turn, but this is hard to do OOP.
The turn is another place where we can consider checking (if we're betting the flop). Are we really going to get 3 streets of value from a worse hand, especially a hand like 99/88/77 when an overcard comes? Even with this small bet size (< 1/2 PSB), we've now build a $180 pot with just $214 left on the river.
If we think this guy can bet busted draws (such as a busted straight draw) then I'm fine with our check on the river to induce.
His bet is extremely small (a lol $40 into $180), so I can understand our temptation to get more money into the pot (i.e. if we think we can bet/fold against him, a lead of $80 would probably be a decent size). But typically bets on the river are fairly polarized in this spot; Villain's will typically happily check back their marginal hands (and these are the only hands that will call a raise), and only bet their monsters (i.e. 6x/etc, which will now shove) or their bluffs (which will never call a raise, although once and a blue moon they might do some random super bluff shove).
Overall, don't spend too much time fretting about your winrate. But do spend more time planning your hand (taking into account stack sizes, what betting on each street accomplishes with regards to this, etc.), and I get the feeling you're not doing that yet.
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