Background:
Pretty simple hand, just wondering if the math checks out.
Table has been fairly passive. Has been quite easy to limp and not get blown off hands.
UTG (~$500): Young AF, splashy, new to table
Hero UTG + 2 ($230): Young AM, tight
HJ ($600): Middle aged guy, tight
BU ($420): Young WM, splashy competent reg
SB ($98): Young WF, passive Level 1 player
BB ($350): Old WM, nit
Preflop:
UTG opens to $12
Hero calls with A
4
HJ calls $12
BU calls $12
SB calls $12
BB calls $12
Flop ($72): J
T
7
UTG (original raiser) bets $20
Hero calls
HJ raises to $220
BU all-in $408
SB all-in $86
UTG folds
Hero action?
Thoughts:
1. Effective pot (what Hero can win) is now at $594 (if I did the math right)
2. Therefore, Hero has to call $198 to win $594 (3:1)
3. The assumption here is that there are definitely some made hands (flopped set, straight, etc.)
4. How many clean outs does Hero need to have to make this a call vs. fold (i.e. I am assuming 7
is 99% not a clean out here)?
Thanks.