This was a hand from 2015.

Game is 7 handed 1/3 NL. It's a private game. I am a rec player but known to villain. Villain is older Asian man, TAG and we have some history together.

Effective stacks are 400. I have played tighter than usual this session, have been there about two hours and am up 100.

UTG folds
Villain is in UTG +1
Hijack folds
Low jack makes it 20 to go (standard open)
Cut off folds
Hero looks down at AK on the button. I think for a bit and decide on a flat.
SB calls
BB folds

Villain snap raises to 200
Low jack folds after a bit
Small blind folds out of position and I go into the tank

What do we think here?

Did villain limp initially or raise? If he limped does he do that often and how so we range him? Also what is LoJacks image?

We have no fold equity here.

Standard play (and probably the best play) would be to fold after the limp reraise.

If you think he'll limp/reraise with weaker aces then jam.

Shoving is not that bad. Its highly likely villain has a pair QQ or lower in which case with $60 of dead money in the pot jamming and having a gambol is probably a break-even play.

Oh and to state the obvious, jamming is not an option if you're not mentally and financially well placed to handle the variance.

Just get it in. Villain's raise size looks like he probably doesn't have AA/KK.

In 2015 this was TT/JJ/AKo.

And ten years before that too. So we can get away with overbetting AA because it 'looks like JJ.' It kind of depends how much credit we're giving villain here. I kind of tend to subscribe to the NLHTP maxim that the most reliable information you've got is the huge bet you're facing down right now. I think I told but like most I'm not going to get into this spot by flatting the open in the first place.

LoJack and small blind are the two least competent players at the table.

Villain limp re-raised. Also, he had more behind than me. So, he was 400 effective to me.

This is what made my head explode. I could not narrow his range at all.

He is the best player at the table and I'm sitting there deciding if he would ever play a-a or k-k like this.

This is a good point. I was 50/50 three betting pre-flop. I 3-bet here 90% of the time, but this time I opted for the flat.

I flatted the open thinking nobody would flat a-k suited on the button against the lojack because they're hoping to isolate. So I did put myself in the spot...

This is a fold. You need about 45% equity to call, and you simply don't have that against a limp-reraising range from a TAG player.

Apropos of nothing I would point out that he can be the best player at a 1/3 home game with a presumably unbeatable rake and still be a complete idiot. Still, I am discounting JJ-TT more now and while these huge squeezes are AK a ton but again you have to discount since It's half of your effective stack and LJ is a known fish. Clear fold now I think.

But if LJ is known fish, could he not be isolating wide, knowing you are capped and will likely fold. It just so happens you're at the very top of your range, and probably outside of how he ranges your flatting.

Usually I fold given this is often AA/KK, but given he's thinking, and we have blockers, I think I call this off.

OP you described villain as Tag yet he's open limping. Does he do that often and how would you range him?



Also what type of fish is LoJack and are there many limped pots or could villain expect a raise usually?

ez fold for me

So in this game, an early limp is not unheard and probably 10-20% of pots go un-raised preflop.

So at the time of this hand, I have probably played 20 hours with this villain, (have probably logged another 100 or so since), and had never seen him limp re-raise before (or since).

LoJack is a bit of a call box and just not a terribly savy player (30 something white guy who was drinking at about 6-7 pm).

My thought process was shove or fold. Not shove for fold equity, but because if I was shoving, I believed I had the best of it at the time.

I went into the tank for about three or four minutes. I ended up folding, mostly because I thought I could find a better spot. After I folded, the small blind who saw my hand, said "that was f-ing crazy".

Lol. Folding is completely fine as is shoving. Its not like we know he is doing this with weaker Ax hands or air.

You're probably in a race with JJ/TT/AKo. With only a $60 overlay and $400 stacks, its not like you're giving up some insane amount of equity.

Even if V is as wide as {JJ+, AK}, were not really getting the equity.

We're 43% vs that range

380/860 = 44%

I doubt V is wider than that, and it's debatable if he ever has JJ there.

the theory that we discount AA and KK because of the sizing isnt without merit. I dont know that I agree with it in this case, but its not absurd. If we are right about his range than we are barely priced in. If we are wrong we are in terrible shape. Im happy quietly folding AKs here. V may show AQ or something and we dream about the pot that could have been, but unless V does this enough where we can widen his range to something we are good against, Im folding this all day.

I'm not buying that any good player does this with AA, so yeah, don't fold.

I don't think we know that villain is a good player. Or that it has anything to do with anything, really. I do know that when I get opportunities to be deceptive by playing transparent they make me money.

Villain is a consistently winning player up to at least 5/10. Hands down best player at the table at the time of the hand.

If this is true it's a pretty trivial shove for us. We should be flipping at worst and dominating often

I think he has AKo a lot. Expect to chop or be flipping usually.

It doesn't matter what you do. I mean, it matters in the sense of he has some hand and you have some equity against it and if you knew what it was there would be a correct play.

But you simply don't know what he has. The discussion above makes it clear that no one has a particularly good read on what he has. (Don't mistake confidence for accuracy.)

You might be flipping. You might be slightly ahead. You might be way behind.

I wouldn't call, just because that drags out the whole drama unnecessarily. Personally, I'd literally use some randomizer to shove 50% and fold 50%. It doesn't make a better decision than agonizing over it and eventually using some internal randomizer to make the decision.

But it does ensure we don't give him any information about how we play AKs (assuming we use some randomizer that isn't obvious).

And it gets us to the next hand.

If he gets the call or shove that many are leaning towards, he's likely playing expertly, no?

GaskingforafriendG