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1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set 1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set

03-20-2018 , 11:08 AM
My image at this table is uber-tight.

Effective stacks=180 (utg+2 has 180, I have 300 & the other three who were in this hand have both of us covered)

I'm dealt 88 in the bb. UTG+2 limps, HJ raises to 20, LJ calls, button calls, I call, utg+2 limper calls.

(Quick profiles: utg+2 might be tilting after getting 2-outed by a donk draw chaser, HJ & LJ are decent TAG-ish players, button is unknown who just sat down.)

Pot [100]
5 players to the flop

A 8 5 rainbow

It's on me. What's the correct play?
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:25 AM
I would lead small and hope for a raise so I could 3! or maybe call the raise and CRAI on turn. So Something like $30-$35.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:44 AM
I also call preflop. If the limper calls we'll be getting better than 4:1 preflop and with maximum IO of 18+ postflop, so looks like a decent setmining spot even though OOP.

SPR is about 3 against the deeper stacks, which means we can play for stacks with 3 streets of about 1/2 PSBs or two streets of PSBs. Having an uber-tight image OOP makes this a bit more difficult. I'd probably just donk out for no more than $50 and hope someone has an Ace; if no one has an Ace, it's unlikely we were going to make anything anyways.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:49 AM
Check.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:54 AM
Given Hero image, $ card on innocent flop, with 4 opponents, I prefer C/R to setup gii ott. Leading into that pack by uber-tight player = super strong hand.

If no one has an ace, we hope for a stab. Alternatively, an AX needs less protection and may check flop, whereby you can extract ott.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:57 AM
Checking is awful. It's a 5 way pot about as dry as can be, we don't block Ax. Either Vs have Ax or they don't. We're not going to get someone cbet bluffing here. Lead $45 and entice a caller or two in MP before someone in LP raises with AQ/AK.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
Given Hero image, $ card on innocent flop, with 4 opponents, I prefer C/R to setup gii ott. Leading into that pack by uber-tight player = super strong hand.

If no one has an ace, we hope for a stab. Alternatively, an AX needs less protection and may check flop, whereby you can extract ott.
You think leading = super strong, but you don't think c/r on a bone dry flop = nuts?

You see many players stabbing into a 5-way raised A-high dry flop with air? This is like a dream spot to lead.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:06 PM
Agree that while an uber tight player donking is super strong, an uber tight player check/raising is super strong x 10. The latter method *might* get us a small bet from a weak hand, but it's likely losing all the hands we'd like to get at least 2 streets from (most Aces are probably making a turn or river decision as to whether they want to stack off, and by that time they might feel pot committed).

GcluelesssetminingnoobG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:13 PM
in a multiway pot like this oop flopping middle set I like leading for around 1/3 pot on this pretty dry board.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I also call preflop. If the limper calls we'll be getting better than 4:1 preflop and with maximum IO of 18+ postflop, so looks like a decent setmining spot even though OOP.

SPR is about 3 against the deeper stacks, which means we can play for stacks with 3 streets of about 1/2 PSBs or two streets of PSBs. Having an uber-tight image OOP makes this a bit more difficult. I'd probably just donk out for no more than $50 and hope someone has an Ace; if no one has an Ace, it's unlikely we were going to make anything anyways.

GcluelessNLnoobG
yeah basically at these stakes nobody is folding 88 for just an initial PFR.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
You think leading = super strong, but you don't think c/r on a bone dry flop = nuts?

You see many players stabbing into a 5-way raised A-high dry flop with air? This is like a dream spot to lead.
The stab is not with air, instead hands like JJ/TT/99/76s that may when checked to in lp.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
The stab is not with air, instead hands like JJ/TT/99/76s that may when checked to in lp.
With this small SPR (which still allows us to play for stacks if the flop checks thru) I don't hate a check either, although I think it would be to check/call and then donk the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
With this small SPR (which still allows us to play for stacks if the flop checks thru) I don't hate a check either, although I think it would be to check/call and then donk the turn.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Could be a C/C, based on sizing. In a 9-handed game w/o an ace in our hand, the odds are extremely favorable that 1 (at least) of the 4 opponents has one.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 03:31 PM
Lead out for $35-40.

You think 4 people called pre and no one has an Ace? If no one really does have an ace, they would be folding to anyone's bet anyway, so it doesn't matter if you make it first.

Your objective here is to get 2 streets of value from moderate-weak Aces (A9,AT,AJ) and to stack AQ/AK

A C/R from an uber-tight image will fold out everything except bottom set here.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 04:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by setintostraight
If no one really does have an ace, they would be folding to anyone's bet anyway, so it doesn't matter if you make it first.
Samo's argument would be that sometimes a weak hand in LP who now thinks they are best with all the checks bets themselves (but will fold to an tight EP donk).

Git'snotincorrect,imoG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 04:19 PM
It's not incorrect, but that scenario is so remote versus just maximizing value from the myriad of Ax hands in the collective field's ranges that it's not worth doing.

We don't even need to c/r at all here to get stacks in. No reason not to b/b/b.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 04:32 PM
As I say, I disagree with a check/raise, but I don't think a check/call and turn donk is horrible, and that will still allow stacks to go in.

Gleaningtobetx3G
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 04:36 PM
Which scenario is more likely:

(1) a Villain in CO/BTN has JJ/TT/99/76s and bets when checked to, but would not call a donk bet; or

(2) one or more of the 4 opponents on this flop has Ax and will call or raise a donk bet?

As a corollary, if we care about getting more than 1 street of value from our monster here, why should we even care about (1) when they almost certainly aren't putting in another cent on the turn or river unless they improve?
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 05:24 PM
As I say, I'm not disagreeing with a bet/bet/bet line, but to answer your point...

The SPR is 3, so we can get stacks in vs Ax in just 3 small bets or 2 largish ones. So even if Ax doesn't somehow bet the flop for us (which they often will) we're still easily in position to play for stacks against them. So let's say worse case scenario the flop checks thru, so we donk $75 into $100 on the turn, pot is now $250 and we have $205 left to shove against the bigger stacks (and an easy peasy $85 against the shorter one). Now admittedly $200 is a big bet in 1/3 NL, so how often we get it paid off instead of $50 / $100 / $130 is a valid question, although that's still worse case scenario and assumes Ax checks this flop. Meanwhile, our flop check sometimes gets 1 street against the weak hands (where we likely wouldn't have gotten anything with a bet) and also sometimes allows air to catch up to pay off a turn bet.

Basically, if we like bet flop like ~60% of the time and checked it ~40% (or whatever) it would probably be fine overall.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-20-2018 , 06:42 PM
CO/BTN aren't guaranteed to bet if PFR checks with hands worse than Ax because it's 1/3 and Vs will worry that one of the check-to-the-raisers has an A.

I like leading 25-35.

I'm not 3! Anyone except UTG+2. If raised, I would call and donk small again OTT. If there are calls and no one raises, I would bet a bigger % OTT.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 12:04 AM
Result of the hand:

I led 25, UTG+2 called, HJ called, the others folded.

turn is a 6

I shove, UTG+2 calls, HJ folds

UTG+2 shows 47 for a straight, I lose.

Afterwards two of the better players at the table discussed how I didn't bet enough on the flop. Shame on me I guess for not giving enough respect to draws on an A 8 5 rainbow board.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 12:15 AM
It's tough to say without deeper player reads, because I'm going to adjust my line accordingly.

With 5 players, a low SPR, the pfr in mid position, and me in the bb with a tight image, I'm leaning toward a check-call on the flop, gii on the turn. A bet from the bb into the field is going to have anyone with an ace thinking about their kicker. A bet from the pfr is going to get called by weak kickers, and when the tight bb calls/overcalls the flop, hands like a10 and aj will often still think they're ahead.

The check-call approach works best at tables where people are calling raises preflop with any suited ace & a10o+ and are playing sticky/stationy postflop.

Against super-stationy fields, I'd prefer the flop check-raise. Against fields that play conservatively in multi-way pots, I'd prefer a bet/bet/bet line.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 12:24 AM
classic super system, lead PSB to see if anyone wants to gamble. Lead PSB on turn or if you think someone will bet it for you check raise allin on turn after you lead PSB on flop.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 03:18 AM
I’ve always check called here but a lead makes some sense. If the LJ or +2 have an ace and HJ and button don’t then we miss a bet unless one of them donks.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 10:32 AM
OP, I do think you lead a tad small, but don't beat yourself up over it. Don't listen to the "better players at the table" - if UTG+2 wants to chase a gutshot getting only 5:1 direct and 6:1 implied, you want to encourage that.

I think $40-$45 is correct though just to build the pot against Ax and charge the lone "real" draw of 76 - which in this multiway field is easily in their ranges.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote

      
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