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1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set 1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set

03-21-2018 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
OP, I do think you lead a tad small, but don't beat yourself up over it. Don't listen to the "better players at the table" - if UTG+2 wants to chase a gutshot getting only 5:1 direct and 6:1 implied, you want to encourage that.

I think $40-$45 is correct though just to build the pot against Ax and charge the lone "real" draw of 76 - which in this multiway field is easily in their ranges.
Yeah, I thought someone with an Ace would call a couple of streets. Really odd that apparently nobody had one.

You just can't take anything for granted at these games and I suppose the +EV play is bet half the pot and take what's in there instead of risking your stack trying to build a pot.

The board seemed dry at first look, but anyone with 67 or even 79 (and, uhh, obviously 47) could easily be in the hand. I don't think it's results bias to say I should've bet more than 25.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 11:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ubiquitous
Yeah, I thought someone with an Ace would call a couple of streets. Really odd that apparently nobody had one.

You just can't take anything for granted at these games and I suppose the +EV play is bet half the pot and take what's in there instead of risking your stack trying to build a pot.

The board seemed dry at first look, but anyone with 67 or even 79 (and, uhh, obviously 47) could easily be in the hand. I don't think it's results bias to say I should've bet more than 25.
I'm not certain this sizing would have mattered. UTG+2 called $17 more oop with the pot at $83 and starting stack of $180. Just bad luck.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 11:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
I'm not certain this sizing would have mattered. UTG+2 called $17 more oop with the pot at $83 and starting stack of $180. Just bad luck.
I agree. Donkey's gonna donkey...just a cooler for you.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwolyswoND
We don't even need to c/r at all here to get stacks in. No reason not to b/b/b.
This. We can bet under 1/2 pot every street and get our stacks in on the river. In a limped pot we may want to go for a c/r, but in this super bloated pot we can make it so easy for Ax to call down. If no one has an A the hand is effectively over anyways, as there is not likely to be any bluffing going on here.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ubiquitous
Result of the hand:

I led 25, UTG+2 called, HJ called, the others folded.

turn is a 6

I shove, UTG+2 calls, HJ folds

UTG+2 shows 47 for a straight, I lose.

Afterwards two of the better players at the table discussed how I didn't bet enough on the flop. Shame on me I guess for not giving enough respect to draws on an A 8 5 rainbow board.
Flop bet is a little small but whatever; if we get multiple callers to it then we still have an easy peasy stackoff by the river.

A shove of $135 into $175 against the shortstack ain't horrible (although I'd maybe still prefer to drag this out over 3 streets on this fairly drawless board), but it's a decent overshove of $255 into $175 against the bigger stack and I don't see any reason for that. I'd do like $90 which will leave us $165 into $355 and deeper stack might feel committed by then.

The guy did not make a profitable call with his gutshot. If no one else calls, he's barely getting the maximum IO he needs to chase his gutshot (he's a 10.5:1 dog and his total IO against our stack + pot is 11:1) and he's not going to stack us every time and someone else behind him can raise the flop bet and he can be drawn out on. Your flop bet was perhaps a little too small but only in terms of making it easier to play for stacks by the river.

GcluelessNLnoobG
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote
03-21-2018 , 04:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
I'm not certain this sizing would have mattered. UTG+2 called $17 more oop with the pot at $83 and starting stack of $180. Just bad luck.
I asked him afterward if he would've called a larger sized bet on the flop & he said probably not, but I didn't ask how much more.
1-3 NL, how to lead w/flopped set Quote

      
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