V is an older Asian guy, at table w/him for 30 minutes & he's limped some pots but hasn't caused much of a stir.

H image is nitty.

Effective stacks = $225 (H). There's a third player in the hand who has both H & V covered.

OTTH

9-handed

V limps UTG +2, cutoff limps & H raises to $20 w/KQ. Both call. 3-handed to flop.

Flop ($64): 2 3 4 rainbow

Checks all the way around.

Turn ($64): K

V bets $70. Cutoff folds.

Hero ($205 left) ?

Ouch. So sick. This is probably a fold, but I highly doubt I could do it in game. I probably call and kick myself when he jams river.

I might raise just a smidge more preflop ($25) so we can be more comfortable stacking off with TP postflop (which we'll likely have to do). Also, taking down 3.5 bbs preflop with KQo (especially if it is unraked) is likely a pretty awesome result.

I probably also check back the flop. Typically KQ is a pretty good hand to cbet with since it can fold out whiffed Ax (a real coup) but I think Ax calls too often on this board (over + gutshot). Also don't think we're folding out any pairs on this flop.

Even though we've setup an SPR that we were probably initially looking to commit with, at this point I actually sometimes nit fold here. Our hand looks exactly like it is (actually, it looks slightly better in AK), and yet this guy looks to want to play for stacks. If he's not a complete clueless idiot and hasn't gotten involved postflop yet, I think we can often make super nitty folds like this.

GcluelessNLnoobG

My thoughts too. I probably call way too often in these spots when I should fold.

Hmmm, interesting. I was thinking I would raise this turn but maybe that is really bad. Probably is since the overbet by V might mean he puts you on AK and wants to get paid.

That being said, if we call turn aren't we going to be compelled to call a river shove for $135 more ($339 in there once V shoves so 2.5-1)?

I just don't think raising the turn vs. this players accomplishes anything. He's ABC so probably calling with better and folding all else. Not sure what I do on river, except hope he checks.

In game it probably really is just a fold and find a better spot.

A close spot because depending on how often he limp/calls hands like AK or 56 will change the EV significantly.

Some bad/weakish players will open limp AK so I gave that a weight of 50% when running quick EV calculations.(Obviously if he was the type to raise every AK combo that would be great for us because in this spot you would never have to worry about losing to AK when the K falls on the turn). I also gave only 50% weight with calling with 56 because id suspect if hes the type to open limp AK he will also limp/call 56 type of hands some percentage of the time in a multiway pot.


So I gave villain a range of (22-66) (KTo-AKo) and (56) which gives us 51% equity OTT. (50% weight to AK and 56)

Take out all AK combos and we have 54% equity. (50% weight to 56)


Take out all AK combos and adjust weight for 56 at 30% and we have 58% equity.

I wanted to illustrate that just to show that given how he plays a few select holdings in this spot can change our EV quite a bit. (Ex. Adding 77 or 88 in this spot def makes a difference).



Villains bet size OTT looks kinda suspicious. If he flopped a set why would he bet so big? Id expect him to make a smaller bet like $25-$50 and if called be confident you have a K and bet for max value on the river instead.


So now KJ and KT bet. And hands like 55 and 66 have a good scare card to bluff. Hell he could even have a hand like 77 that was going to check raise the flop and decided to lead turn now.


Id go all in OTT.


Curious how this hand ended because id like to know if Im over thinking these kinda spots.

I bet flop

As played, I fold turn

I prefer a flop bet too, but I think we get called on flop a ton with Ax, 5x, pocket pairs. What turns are we barreling?

I shoved, he called & showed 56, I shipped.

As far as betting the flop, I didn't think c-betting against multiple players at this table was a very good idea.

I thought he'd make that turn bet w/AK but also KJ, KT & maybe a few suited K's; also pocket pairs (pocket Q's was limped multiple times at this table).

He flopped the nuts? (I'm unclear on how "I shipped" is being used here)

GcluelessterminologynoobG

What do we think Villain thinks we have given the way we've played preflop and flop?

Given that, is that really how he plays weaker Kx? And how would he play nuttish hands given what he thinks our hand is?

Or do we not think that he thinks on that level? (hint: you wouldn't guess it from most villain descriptions given in this forum, but almost all opponents think on this level, imo)

Gclueless3rdlevelnoobG

I think he means, "I shipped my chips to him." That's all I can think of, unless the river saved us!

The size of the turn bet looks like a set or straight that was looking to check raise the flop and is now desperately trying to get paid. At 1/3 versus an older villain, I wouldn't level myself into assessing whether my king is good here because that would assume that villain is trying to move you off of your hand which means he's hand reading and trying to make a play. But someone who's been limping in pots is probably less likely to be doing that compared to a more aggressive player. The quiet and older Asian gentlemen play quite straightforward imo.

Grunch:
- I like the pf raise size.
- I like the check on the flop as well
- Had V checked to us, i would've bet 35-50
- But since this is the first aggressive action we've seen from V, and this bet sizing is also threathening an all-in on the river, and our hand is unlikley to improve unless V has 2 pair and we hit a Q or K, this is a fold.
- I can see V take this line with AK, QK, and all sets.

I initially was thinking set on the hand, guess he's calling oop $20 w/56. I prolly find a call here too but it's gross.

raise and get value from what? KJ? can you really see V taking this line with KJ here? Isn't it more feasible that he x/c or lead smaller.

I think this is a better bet with Ax in our hand, not Kx. I know it's an exploitable check back, but we really have nothing else going for us other than to bink a K or Q. We're not folding any 5x, any Ax, 66-JJ.

Why did you think an unknown player would make PSB with KT/KJ and some suited Kx?

My only problem with folding KQ here is that it's probably the best hand we will ever have in this situation (maybe we could have K4s/K3s/K2s but hopefully not). Just looking at it, he should have pretty much any KX, 5x pair+draw, and any pair+BDFD (if that was an option) along with sets and straights. If we're folding KQ then we are literally never calling turn which is bad.

Still this size is begging for us to make an exploitative fold. At this size, I weight his range away from draws, unless he has shown a willingness to fire draws with reckless abandon. This turn should be better for us than him and so his bet really looks like a strong hand hoping we hit the K.

There was only 3 to the flop. One of them is you so there's only 2 other players. Sure, that's "multiple" players, but its not like the flop came 5 ways.

Checking flop is fine.

Folding the turn here is mandatory. He is pretty sure you have a K and he still over bet the pot. Just fold. So many people just refuse to use the fold button as a weapon.

Same reason most players bet a big chunk of the pot w/top pair -- to protect his hand from possible draws.

How is he pretty sure I have a K? He was first to act & I checked the flop with position.

Pardon my two-year level education, but it's always been my understanding that multiple means more than one.

You raised $20 preflop. You didnt bet the flop which for most people eliminates pocket pairs from your range.

You said your image is nitty so what else do you have in your range?

AK/AQ/KQ type hands. The odds are you have a K so he overbet the pot hoping you wouldnt be able to fold. If you had AQ hes getting nothing from you anyway so he might as well bet big.