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1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore 1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore

02-15-2015 , 01:56 PM
Action is 7 handed. Table has been tending loose passive. Hero starts the hand UTG+1 with 240 behind and has 9c9d. UTG opens for 10, hero calls, along with cutoff, button and SB. Primary villain is new to table and has not been very active.

5 go to the flop with ~$50 in the pot, flop comes 6h9hJd. Checks to hero who bets 25, folds around to SB who calls, UTG folds. Heads up to the turn which brings 10s putting a straight draw on the board. With ~100 in the pot, villain donks out for 100. Hero has 205 behind, Villain has hero covered. What's the play?

Last edited by Strider124; 02-15-2015 at 02:02 PM.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-15-2015 , 02:05 PM
Shove, villain can have plenty worse (JT seems like a likely culprit) and we're going to be committed on a lot of rivers anyways. I'd bet more on flop in this 5 way pot too, ~35-40.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-15-2015 , 02:12 PM
Your only two options are shoving and folding. I personally prefer shoving. Sets are so huge at LLSNL. QK is really the only hand that has you in rough shape, and you still have 10 outs to boat up or hit the case 9.

Its hard to put V on much of a range without any background info, but i would tend to say he has two pair or a pair and flush draw more often than a made straight.

Also, I would have bet more on the flop. 35 is a little better if not 40
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-15-2015 , 02:31 PM
If you bet 45 or more on the flop (this could be a spot for an overbet), this hand plays itself.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-15-2015 , 02:49 PM
Duly noted on the flop bet. Table was playing pretty passively, 1/2 pot bets were routinely taking down pots and had been my standard lead, so I didn't want to do anything unusual, and I definitely wanted some action. At a more aggressive table I would have been betting 35-40.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-15-2015 , 05:27 PM
I also believe that this is a shove or fold situation as well. If we are ahead, there are a great deal of hands that have enough equity to call the shove with proper pot odds. Even good made hands like two pair who may wonder if they are behind will need to call the shove for another $100 because they have the same situation as us which is an aggressive player with a pair and a draw may shove. If we are behind, the river is going to be a shove from villain and no way we could call $100 on turn believing we are ahead and fold to a $100 bet on river.

I am inclined to shove unless i have a read on the player as being super nitty. Lots of hands that improve with a T that are still behind ours. If the villain shows a straight then just bad luck.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 01:11 PM
I'm cool with preflop.

The SPR on the flop is just over 4. The board is pretty drawy, has an overcard, we're up against a lot of opponents, plus we're totally committed (we can never fold a hand this strong even with bad turn/river cards with this low an SPR). Therefore, I would plan to get stacks in by the turn. If we slightly overbet the flop to $60 that would leave us a PSB shove on the turn HU, so that's what I'd do.

As played, easy shove. We can easily run into worse hands / draws, we're committed, and if we're behind we can suck out.

ETA: I disagree with the consensus that $40 is a good flop bet size. It sets up a $130 pot with just $190 behind, which is an awkward stack size for the turn (making a shove too much of an overbet, but meanwhile making any other reasonable bet leave us with too little behind for the river). With an SPR of ~4 on a totally dry board we could go for 3 gay bets of like 1/2 PSB or whatever (or even slowplay a street), but otherwise on drawy boards we should size our bets to get this over in 2 streets, imo.


GcluelessNLnoobG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 02-16-2015 at 01:16 PM.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:30 PM
i bet bigger on the flop, something like $40. then the turn is an easy shove.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by agnostia
i bet bigger on the flop, something like $40. then the turn is an easy shove.
This. As played, all-in.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 05:56 PM
PF: We don't have a full stack and we are calling in the UTG+1 to set mine with 80bb. Your stack is too low. Fold! If we are going to play this hand with 80bb, I'd rather raise.

Pot is $53.

F: SPR is 4.5. We flop middle set! WooHoo! Let's start building that pot. So we bet half pot. I'd rather bet something like 2/3P ($35) to start getting that pot nice and fat (and people love to chase their draws) If there going to call $25, they'll probably call $35.

T:
So we get one caller. Pot is $103 and we've got $205 left. When SB donks pot into us, that's pretty scary! 78 just got there. Q8 just got there. KQ just got there. Still I don't think I'm folding here. Just shove and get the rest in there.

Edit: After reading the other posts, I don't understand how people are saying to bet $40 on the flop, then turn is an "...easy shove." Even if we bet $40 on the flop and get two callers, the pot will be $173 and we'll have $190. So if the villain doesn't donk into us then you guys are really shoving $190 into $173? That is bad, IMHO.

If you are saying that shove raising to the villain's donk bet is an "...easy shove", well then it really doesn't matter whether we bet $25 or $40 on the flop.

I don't disagree with betting more on the flop, but it's not to shove the turn. It's just to start getting more money from those who want to chase their draws to the turn.

Last edited by Below Zero; 02-16-2015 at 06:07 PM.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 06:10 PM
Shove all day.

In this setting, flop bet is standard.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 06:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
PF: We don't have a full stack and we are calling in the UTG+1 to set mine with 80bb. Your stack is too low. Fold! If we are going to play this hand with 80bb, I'd rather raise.
folding a pair of 9s in EP in an unopened pot seems really bad. although, i agree raising it is far better than limping it.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
PF: We don't have a full stack and we are calling in the UTG+1 to set mine with 80bb. Your stack is too low. Fold! If we are going to play this hand with 80bb, I'd rather raise.
Folding preflop is so bad. We're getting implied odds of 24:1. On top of that, the raise is so lol small at 1/3 NL that we can fully expect to go a zillion ways preflop (almost getting the correct *immediate* odds to setmine, let alone the implied against the world postflop). Heck, there are even some flops / action where our UI 99 will stand up. Even if someone does wake up with a real hand and 3bet large (which we'll probably have to fold to unless our reads / stacks tell us otherwise) it's only for a mere ~5% of our stack (i.e. no big deal, next hand).

GneverfoldinghereG
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by agnostia
folding a pair of 9s in EP in an unopened pot seems really bad. although, i agree raising it is far better than limping it.
Unopened? UTG just raised to $10 and we called in the UTG+1 position with five people left to act. Even if it was unopened, I fold 99 in the UTG and UTG+1 seat all day in a full ring game.

If the pot was unopened, I would open 99 in the UTG+1 position, i.e MP, here because we are 7 handed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Folding preflop is so bad. We're getting implied odds of 24:1. On top of that, the raise is so lol small at 1/3 NL that we can fully expect to go a zillion ways preflop (almost getting the correct *immediate* odds to setmine, let alone the implied against the world postflop). Heck, there are even some flops / action where our UI 99 will stand up. Even if someone does wake up with a real hand and 3bet large (which we'll probably have to fold to unless our reads / stacks tell us otherwise) it's only for a mere ~5% of our stack (i.e. no big deal, next hand).
I'll have to respectfully disagree with you here. I wouldn't say "...it's so bad". That's a little rough. If we are playing it to set mine, then it's borderline. I like to have full stacks to set mine. Basically, 25 times the original bet; we are just under that.

If we are playing it because of it's value, and knowing we are seven handed, then I'd rather 3 bet it here.

We are 7.5: 1 to flop a set, so I'm not sure how we are getting the correct *immediate* odds to call. Plus, you're assuming UTG is going to stack off with an overpair; hell, maybe he will. I wouldn't automatically assume we are getting 24:1 odds.

Last edited by Below Zero; 02-16-2015 at 07:08 PM. Reason: Incorrectly stated $15 as the open from UTG
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:05 PM
It was a 10$ open. I'm calling at least sixes in the preflop spot. 25 times is a ridiculously conservative set mining number. In most 100bb capped games you could never set mine in raised pots with that rule
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:07 PM
I'm saying that a $10 open at 1/3 NL is so lol small (so much so that it might as well be a limp), which means that even at a 7 handed table there is a very realistic chance this goes 5+ ways to the flop (which it did, not a surprise I'm sure). So we'll most likely be getting immediate odds of 4:1 (ok, admittedly only half of our required immediate odds), but then on top of that 24:1 implied odds against the raiser, let alone shrapnel damage that we can accumulate against others in the field.

I'll admit there is probably an argument for 3betting, but I'm passive like that (and I do think flatting here is better overall).

In the end, setmining is a bread and butter play at this limit. There are some very rare situations where we should be folding pairs, but this is not remotely close to one of them.

GimoG
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-16-2015 , 07:11 PM
^^Alright, I see what you mean. I guess if I know it's very likely to be limped around, then limping is fine to set mine.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
PF: We don't have a full stack and we are calling in the UTG+1 to set mine with 80bb. Your stack is too low. Fold! If we are going to play this hand with 80bb, I'd rather raise.

Pot is $53.

F: SPR is 4.5. We flop middle set! WooHoo! Let's start building that pot. So we bet half pot. I'd rather bet something like 2/3P ($35) to start getting that pot nice and fat (and people love to chase their draws) If there going to call $25, they'll probably call $35.

T:
So we get one caller. Pot is $103 and we've got $205 left. When SB donks pot into us, that's pretty scary! 78 just got there. Q8 just got there. KQ just got there. Still I don't think I'm folding here. Just shove and get the rest in there.

Edit: After reading the other posts, I don't understand how people are saying to bet $40 on the flop, then turn is an "...easy shove." Even if we bet $40 on the flop and get two callers, the pot will be $173 and we'll have $190. So if the villain doesn't donk into us then you guys are really shoving $190 into $173? That is bad, IMHO.

If you are saying that shove raising to the villain's donk bet is an "...easy shove", well then it really doesn't matter whether we bet $25 or $40 on the flop.

I don't disagree with betting more on the flop, but it's not to shove the turn. It's just to start getting more money from those who want to chase their draws to the turn.
More than 20x the preflop raise is absolutely enough to set mine. The rest of the table still needs to act and we might get more callers increasing our implied odds. Never folding 99 here.

I agree the flop bet needs to be bigger. I think $50 is the right amount. Any draw needs to think twice before calling a PSB and should fear an impending turn shove.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 12:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
I like to have full stacks to set mine. Basically, 25 times the original bet; we are just under that.
25x the original bet is bonkers for a set mining limit. You are leaving serious cash on the table
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
PF: We don't have a full stack and we are calling in the UTG+1 to set mine with 80bb. Your stack is too low. Fold! If we are going to play this hand with 80bb, I'd rather raise.
80bb is more than enough to set mine when the raise is only 3-4bb. Anyway, 9's is not only a set mining hand either.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
Shove, villain can have plenty worse (JT seems like a likely culprit) and we're going to be committed on a lot of rivers anyways. I'd bet more on flop in this 5 way pot too, ~35-40.
Yepper this. WE have equity even against a straight and there are a ton of hands that made two pair or pair + draws.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:07 PM
I remember reading somewhere that, depending on the player type, the opponent's stack needs to be 15 to 25 times the bet to set mine.

Some of you guys are saying "25x the original bet is bonkers for a set mining limit." and "25 times is a ridiculously conservative set mining number"

OK, so we got the criticism, so now what is the correct answer?

@TKO121, yes I realize 99 is not only a set mining had either, but when you are calling in EP knowing you'll get a few callers, it is a set mining hand.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:12 PM
In Below Zero's defense, setmining is sometimes more complicated than simply Nx stack size implied odds. And if you add up all the times we flop a set and don't stack an opponent, plus the times we spew a little when we don't flop a set, and the real backbreaker of times when we flop a set and lose our stack, it can be closen that we think. And there are times where we never have setmining odds against certain opponents because those opponents are simply too good to ever give us back what we need posflop even if they flop an overpair to our set.

Gso,"itdepends",butthisisstillagoodplacetoseeaflop G
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Below Zero
OK, so we got the criticism, so now what is the correct answer?
"It depends." .

You can reduce the amount of effective stacks you need if you can steal post flop. I use 15x effective when deciding to set mine then adjust up or down depending on villain tendencies.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote
02-17-2015 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
In Below Zero's defense, setmining is sometimes more complicated than simply Nx stack size implied odds. And if you add up all the times we flop a set and don't stack an opponent, plus the times we spew a little when we don't flop a set, and the real backbreaker of times when we flop a set and lose our stack, it can be closen that we think. And there are times where we never have setmining odds against certain opponents because those opponents are simply too good to ever give us back what we need posflop even if they flop an overpair to our set.

Gso,"itdepends",butthisisstillagoodplacetoseeaflop G
Hero has position on original raiser. The ~20x rule works in this spot. I agree in certain situations the rule doesn't work. For example if I'll be heads up OOP against a tight opponent, I'll fold at least 66 and worse pre even if villain has 20x the raise.
1/3 NL, flopped set at Horseshoe Baltimore Quote

      
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