Hero BB 400ish
Villian SB 1000ish

Villian LAG. Playing Ax and any 2 suited. Always raised to 20ish if he doesn't limp. Calls every raise after he limped pre-flop. Never see him fold before turn unless facing an all-in in a pot he opened with a raise. Will chase his draws to the river every time vs pot sized bets and has been hitting them. Has not really been bluffing at all. When he has raised pre flop if it went to showdown he always had pocket pairs or any Face card paired with 10+

3 limpers, Villian raises to 22.
Hero calls with 99.

All others fold.

Flop {942}
Villian bets 20.
Hero min raise to 40.
Villian calls.

Turn 3 Villian checks.
Hero bets 70 Villian calls

River 5
Villian bets 100
Hero ?


How would you have played this hand. I think the raise post flop should have been more but I don't think he folds unless I overbet the pot but should have got more money in. When the river hits I can hear villians breathing getting rapid and heavy. Last few times I noticed this he showed the nuts or near nuts.

Definitely raise the flop bigger. You're deep stacked and you want to build the pot as soon and as much as you can. Somewhere around $60-70 is fine. Makes for a much bigger turn bet and smaller river decision.

As played, I don't fold top set here. You only need to be good 22ish% of the time and he can play hands that are worse for value some of the time. I don't love the call but I don't think it can be that bad here if he plays 55, 54s and the occasional bluff (unlikely though given reads).

+1

Would add that heavy breathing, shaky hands, etc. is usually fight or flight from a "big" hand for most players (including villain and yourself). Just be careful what a big hand is to this player. Maybe he hit 2pr and overvalues it.

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Fold the river.

Folded river based on what I took for his tell and Villian showed AK. Kicking myself a little for not betting more on flop and causing him to make a tougher decision on turn. Really don't think he would have went anywhere unless I went all in though.

Raising flop is bad, especially for your sizing

Let villain catch up ott and continue firing and then put in a healthy raise

As played folding river is good

OP, your thought process about what you should have done is mega results oriented. The fact that he runner runnered you with a hand that virtually couldn't win does not mean you should have tried to make him fold.

Generally you should flat the flop in spots like this unless you're sure your opponent has an overpair, which you're not here of course.

I'm also calling preflop. If things go HU, we'll have a decent pair and can play some postflop poker in position. If things go multiway, that's fine too, and we can more-or-less setmine.

Looks like the SPR is 8ish on the flop, which means we'll probably need about 3 postflop streets of 3/4 PSBs going in to play for stacks. I kinda wish Villain had bet larger cuz it will be slightly more difficult getting in stacks by just flatting. How often is this guy continuing with air to a minraise? How often does he barrel air if he has air? The more he folds his air to a minraise and will barrel with air, the more I just flat this flop; the more he continues with air on the flop and shuts down on the turn, the more I raise the flop.

Next time post pot size on each street so we know bet sizes we are doing. Pot looks to be about $125 or so. In order to play for stacks by the river (our goal) we're going to need to bet fairly large on the turn. If we bet $100, that'll create a $325 pot with $240 left to jam, so reasonable. Our $75 is a bit too small as it'll leave us with about a PSB for the river.

This guy never bluffs. Would he ever bet KK like this here, kinda a blocking bet with a hand that might be good and knows we can't raise? We're getting decent odds, but mainly against most opponents we can make some hero folds here *I think*.

GcluelessNLnoobG

+1

I'm fine within wanting to bet more on the turn, but it is for pure value and for setting up an easier river shove. We Villain to call with what he has 100% of the time and if he hits a 4 outer, oh well.

ETA: OP, here is some simple math on why we want him to call the turn.

If he folds the turn, our EV is $125 (i.e. we win the pot).

If he calls the turn, and we pay off his $100 bet every single time he hits his 4-outer:

Approx 92% of the time we win $125 + $75 = $184
Approx 8% of the time we lose $75 + $100 = -$14

For a total EV of $170, which is almost 1/3rd more profitable than him folding the turn. If we factor in the times he sometimes pays off a river shove when an A/K falls, him calling the turn becomes even more insanely profitable for us, even if we call his river bet when he gets there every single time.

GcluelessNLnoobG

i could go either or on the flop. Usually I'd flat a cbet IP on such a dry board but as villain cbet less than he raised I'd click it back to start building a pot. I rarely minraise so I'd probably make it 60 or so. As played on the turn pot is around $120 and we only bet 70. Definitely not a fan of that. After he calls your raise it's the green light for the big betting. I'd go 85-100.

River is **** and his donk gives us a pretty clear fold.