Another solid one liner - HA.

Spex - why are bad players calling this guy? Maybe include every FD, SD that calls 20 then 80 then shoves?
V2 is 40s white male. He is sleeping and raises between 15 to 35 every hands(half of the time without look the cards or only look at one card).

Have you been paying attention man? I've been changing hearts and minds all week.

I do this because it helps me get better. Challenging conventional wisdom improves my thought process and helps me learn. I don't go around starting crap at random, but I do believe that A LOT of the stuff that's posted in these forums is bad advice.

I feel like there are bad poker players who appear to be good only because their competition is so horrendous. These players pollute strategy discussions by advocating what works for them, even though its still extremely far from optimal. In many cases, folks are on auto-pilot, believing that certain plays are "standard". I'm telling you right now, if the word "standard" is in your poker vocabulary, it's a leak.

I'm not going around starting fights for fun. But as you can see from several threads this past week, I've been clobbered for challenging conventional wisdom. In each case, I feel like everyone involved learned a little something.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...m-aks-1554748/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...83/index6.html

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...33/index3.html

In this hand, I'm challenging everyone here to truly assess the value of their hand against villain's range. AA doesn't have to be an auto-stack off hand. Take a breath, put the whole puzzle together, and evaluate your options. And I think that a careful analysis here shows pretty clearly that this is a huge swing/tiny+ev spot where if we lose, there's a good chance the money is leaving the table so V can use it as a pillow.

No one will see your cards if you fold. No one will think you're a wimp for mucking aces. Control your egos boys.

They aren't, bad players are calling.

Edited - calling

Against a range of AK-KT, sets, all two pair combos, NFD's and 67 we have 71% equity. Take out the lower end of the NFD range and eliminate all Kx hands and we're still at 66% equity. We only need 35% equity to call profitably.

Clearly it's a call.

Edit: take out the unlikely two-pair combos and leave the upper end of the NFD's and we've got 41% equity.

herrrrrrrrrrp i'm a stupid: against a range of sets and big NFDs we're only 21.9%

Add AK for villain and we're 44%.

Spex, I think your posts for the most part are really good, but you're way off on this one. If we have 37.7% equity vs. V's range (the minimum I'm coming up with in this spot, but post a reasonable worse range for V if you disagree), then calling is +$72.88 in EV. That's huge.

I saw the results so it's cheating, but it feels like a semi-bluff for sure.

The description of the V is definitely confusing, but if he's typically aggro ... then happens to hit a set ... we'd expect him to slow down or get tricky. Basically, this shove doesn't spell set. It spells semibluff.

In general, the shove is not a very optimal move with a set. The pot is already 550 if he calls, leaving him just 300 behind, with two streets left, so he's in no rush to gii.

Equivocation
Red herring

Propositional fallacy

Multiple informal fallacies
Propositional fallacy?

I never claimed I was good at the math parts of these things, but if that's right then I believe you. I said early on that it would be tough for me to find a fold, but thinking about it critically, and using the read that the OP gave, I don't think V is making this move lightly.

I think V has a set, the NFD, or 67c, and that's it. Maybe two pair, but I think that's pushing it. AK is unlikely since we block it. And if he really would get crazy with one pair here, wouldn't it follow that he would make a move with AK preflop? The pot was raised an action went back to him twice and he played passively both times. When someone either limps, then flat calls a 3-bet, or when they flat a raise and then flat another raise.....that strongly suggests a pocket pair. That's a hugely reliable read I've developed at LLSNL, and this hand isn't changing my mind.

@RAHzero, you can't claim to be making those calculations at the table. It's nice exercise here, but in reality, when a guy is snoring and then suddenly snaps up and ships his stack, are you really fist pumping with one pair?

No, it was 31% ish. I'd suggest taking a long reread of OP here, calculate the equity needed, puts some ranges into your favorite software, read PNLHE. You just can't fold AA in this spot. Like I said, OP's results don't matter. It's one thing to suggest unconventional lines and thoughts, it's another to fold in this spot.

Size of the mistake is $1640 * (equity_against_Vrange - 31%), which I'd say is at least $80, although I'd argue higher.

(Against his actual hand, it's about a $500 mistake, but that's not a fair number to use obviously.)

This is a good point - game speed is different than after the fact.

In game, definitely not fist-pump calling here but getting better than 2-1 on a call and us not having the A, it's hard to not call here.

I hadn't seen RAH's post and Spex's reply before making mine, don't mean to pile on too crazy here. Spex, you can definitely snap in this spot live, because you can have a good enough feel for the math to know that worse case it's a shrug, and it might be a great spot. It takes practice away from the table studying the numbers.

Players with good instincts can study the maths and get at least decent there, where many with the math skillz struggle to ever develop the instincts.

Double edged sword. Relying too heavily on the math can backfire.

Here we have a guy who was literally snoozing, passed on two opportunities to raise pre-flop, and then suddenly saw a hand worth waking up and jamming with.

Where is that accounted for in your equation? How do quantify that information?

I'm not looking to do battle with the whole forum over this one. Against a V with a pulse, I probably snap call too. But when weighing all the factors...I feel like it's one of those high variance/slim value situations that I usually stay away from.

I hear you. This is just one of those spots where the math is so compelling that you need a slam dunk nitty, only has a set, read. A guy making big preflop moves blind, looking at one card, etc, he's just bound to have some flush draws and some pairs + flush draws in his range. And we needed to add so little to the nutted part of the range to make this a call.

In general, if you've got a good hand and only need 31%, you shouldn't be folding too often.

dont get into a 1/3 game for 2200 in one day. theres almost no way im even close to my b game being in for that much

It's hard to flop sets. V shouldn't ever have two pair here and we have decent equity vs 58 anyway. Folding AA in a 3b pot with SPR under 3 seems pretty dumb. We made the SPR less than 3 so that V's make mistakes and we don't. Stacking off with AA in a 3b pot with low SPR is never a mistake.

FYP

FWIW I'm guilty for not 100% knowing the math behind spots like these. The math isn't something that will trick you, it's applying it incorrectly that's the problem.