Wouldn't even be posting this, but half the table was aghast at my laydown, so...

Villain: SB, ~$400, only ~45 minutes at the table. MAWG. Early read is solid to very solid, leaning TAG. Seen him raise with effective nuts twice, and each team he tanked for about twenty seconds before slowly counting out his raise.

V2: HJ, shortstacked, $85. Not awful, just kept showing down with second best.

H: BB Late 20s, Early 30s. ~$500.

Hand history with Villain: Hero has QQ in SB and 3 bets, Villain folds AJ and shows to Hero, saying something like "they may not understand what that bet means, but I do".

OTH:

Two limpers, V2 limps, Villain raises to $15. Hero has AKs and 3b to $35 -- and Villain grabs another $20, readying a call. Fold to HJ who pushes all in. Villain puts the calling chips back in his stack, does his Hollywood tankraise, making it $115.

Hero just shakes his head, tries to convince himself he's seeing ghosts, doesn't, and folds, showing the fold. Cue "how could you fold that" etc.

V2 flips over XX. Villain flips over...

That's a 4bet. Fold is fine without history. Most people at these stakes don't have a 4 bet bluff range.

Easy fold. Unless villains are spazzing you are behind at least one of them. There is enough dead money in the pot that your getting odds if they both have pairs QQ- but you will be facing a pair and a hand with some of your outs too often.

Never show when you make this sort of big hand fold. It encourages your opponents to bluff you, making the better ones more dangerous and the bad ones more unpredictable.

Folding is fine, but why would you show?


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I'd probably shove here. Depends if you think the holding of the calling chips is a fake tell. You've 3bet twice in 45 minutes and v1 has taken the cheapest route to show strength. If your reads are good he's not nearly as strong as in a normal 4bet spot.

Showing the fold was serious spew tho.

5-bet all-in.

V2 has < 30BB, and you already have way > 33% of stacks in vs. him.

Your 3-bet size is too small, too. Might look weak to villain.

And you have a great live read on villain that he is readying a call and then pulls back calling chips to push after V2 goes all-in. Why ignore that read? This is a great spot to 5-bet all-in to wield max fold equity to get villain to fold after putting in 25% of his stack, capture dead money, and isolate against V2. V2's range is wide here and could look something like say 55+, AT+, KQ, etc. If the main villain only has JJ-AA, AK, which I think is possible given the table and stack dynamic, then he could fold up to 21 combos (JJ, QQ, AK) to your 5-bet shove and stack off with 6 combos (AA, KK).

Also, you have only been playing with villain for 45 minutes and this is at least your second 3-bet (re: the QQ hand earlier). In live poker, that's like 2 3-bets in 15 hands. I wouldn't put a lot of weight on that, but your image matters too, and makes villain wider.

At this point, it's mostly a math problem (assign V2 a range, assign villain a full range and calling range), but I think it's going to be a clear +EV shove.

I mean, could the main villain even fold KK some % of the time to a 5-bet shove?

I certainly wouldn't count on it... but it is quite possible that he folds sometimes.

He might not even be wrong on a population read basis to fold sometimes to our 5-bet shove.

This is pretty much a perfect spot to ship given stacks, action, and dynamics.

Well i don't think it's a certainty either way - with some of the meta game going on.... (V's previous show of AJ signals to you that he totally respects your bets and would laydown a non-nut hand - then he goes on to 4 bet you a few minutes later... if he's aware of that it's could be manipulated). But more likely he has the nuts

Fold is fine I guess. Showing the fold is attention whore material. Just awful.

Action doesn't look right. If HJ goes 35->85 then V has to make it 135 minimum. I'm going to start with the assumption he raises to 135.

Let's assume V is stacking off against a shove with KK+ AKs. Then against that range we have 32% equity in the side pot of 630 (~200). If we give HJ ATC, we are 25% to win the 255 main pot (~68). We are jamming 365, so this is roughly -100 in ev. If we give HJ KK+, AKs as well then we have 15% (~38) for roughly -130 in ev.

If V folds, we scoop 50 from the side and we are 67% against ATC, so we have 190 eq in the main for ev of 240. If HJ has KK+, AKs we are 32% in main (~85) for ev of 135.

So if HJ has ATC, we need V to fold 29%+ of the time. If HJ has KK+, AKs we need folds just under 50% of the time.

The real number is between these two numbers. However, if V is raising only QQ+, AKs and stacking off with KK+, AKs, then this is probably a fold. Give him a few combos of JJ and AKo, and it's a clear ship imo.

OP doesn't give the bet sizing in 'history' hand .. could be important here for what V 'knows' a 3-bet means. Yes, technically a 5-bet with the cold-4-bet-all-in. V raise is so small we almost don't consider it a raise (2-bet) here!!

I think the raise to $35 is 'smart' by Hero since it gives him the opportunity to go over the top of a shorty shove. In comparison to previous Hero actions it could look weak or very smart IMO.

1) Does shorty share cards with us?
2) Is V trapping with an OMC min-raise? Do we care?

Certainly a table read for me. V did do the pause-raise routine and basically OMC'd a min-raise here. I could go 'any' way here (even call) and it comes down to how low do we think V pp is here. I'm not buying the 'calling chips' as a false tell. Does V expect a raise from this table when 'only' opening to $15? Another big factor IMO and contradict my thinking since V is probably not flatting here with AA/KK/QQ.

Call .. sure, but are we really folding with 25% of effective stacks already committed? I could, but most would consider this a long term spew with $300 in the pot and $300 effective behind x2.

Fold .. sure, read QuadJ post ..

Shove .. sure, if my read of the 'calling chip tell' is a smaller pp then I just have to hope that I'm not sharing cards with shorty and have a live suit. GL

Villain doesn't sound like an incompetent. This is a pretty easy fold and anyone telling you otherwise is leveling you. Villain's range is exactly KK, AA.

And to reiterate, don't show. Why would you give your opponent more information than necessary?

Your 3b sizing is terrible. $55-80.

As played, snap all in.

$80?!!!

Agree $35 bad. $50 ideal so we can reopen if shorty shoves.

I used to think 3b too big was bad.

Then I realized that nits, who literally never have anything other then AA, 3b huge and get called all the time.

+1

+1 punt, that is

Yeah. Thought about it more. Maybe fold is fine.

We'd be 6-betting all-in. I said 5-bet above, not that it changes much.

Stacks might be a touch too deep to shove, and what is our equity when called? Really not great. And how amazing is it really to isolate V2 with AKs? Surely if we were 100% confident a shove would isolate, then it's +EV... but even then possibly not by a huge amount. And we are of course not 100% sure our shove will isolate.

Finally, I'm now confused about the raise sizes.

We made it 35, V2 shipped his 82 (47 more chips).

How could villain raise to 115? Is that a legal raise? Is a hero 6-bet shove a legal raise?

I'm a bit confused by the action and didn't read it carefully enough earlier.

Yeah fold may just be fine.

I think it's probably pretty close.

Not sure how close, but possibly close enough AKs is a shove and AKo is a fold.

Sorry guys, posted wrong bet size from villain. He raised it another, not to. Long night.

Anyways, Villain had KK. Had his range entirely AA-KK. Maybe he does it with QQ or JJ or AK, but I just couldn't see it after the Hollywood raise.

Re: it being a spew to show -- I did it thinking it might encourage bluffs, but after reading I see your points. Thank you for the feedback.

3-bet sizing... yeah, probably. Thanks guys.

But what was the board? We only care if we would've won the hand ..

The 'delay' raise (of which we have seen before) and OMC sizing should out weigh the 'calling chips' tell IMO. (and not just because we now know it's KK)

That's why it's very important in live games to pay attention to the action in front and stack sizes behind. If OP had 3-bet a larger amount then he may have felt obligated to get into the side pot. Now, all of this betting may have been 'standard' for that table, but not at any of the tables I play at!! GL

no one wants to see a flop IP?

I think the thought is that if we flat here we don't even have a PSB behind. It's certainly an option but it's a lot easier to walk away from 10% of your stack PF than 25% of your stack when getting 2 to 1 on a call (or better) on the next bet.

I might even make calling my 2nd option if I have a V who will pay me off. But by default a V who will pay me off will be doing this lighter anyway in most cases.

The 'double' OMC min-raise and the 'delay' raise tells are too strong here for me to just see a Flop. I'm either walking away at a minimal cost or seeing all 5 cards. GL

Why would we want to let QQ- fold an A or K high flop?

The 3-bet was very table standard, but yeah, shouldve went higher so an all-in wouldn't have been another full bet. Good points.

Flop came A-3-4

Next time don't post the flop. Or better yet, stop remembering what the flop even was. You'll become a better poker player if you do.