1/3, $200 effective with the relevant player here, who was an older Asian guy.

I’ll start off by saying that I rarely like to rely on live reads, but thought here it might be enough to act on. Interested to hear what everyone thinks, and how to weight “don’t bluff at LLSNL games” and “don’t try to get people to fold top pair” against (IMO) a clear read of weakness.

BTW... this was 6-handed at the Bellagio, and the 80-year old next to me texted his friend in size 30 font “great table, 5 fish”.

Preflop:
I open AhKx to $15 from the CO.
BU calls.

Flop ($33): Qh7h2h
I bet $15.
BU makes a slight “oh come on” face, thinks for a few seconds, then calls. I understand that often means a strong hand, but it was so subtle that I really don’t think he was trying to telegraph it. It’s possible though. How would everyone else interpret this? I thought it seemed a lot like a Q.

Turn ($63): Qh7h2h4x
I bet $50.
He has a similar reaction (slightly shaking his head), thinks for about 20 seconds, then calls again.

River ($163): Qh7h2h4xQx (about $120 behind)
Here’s the spot I’m most interested in. Do we bomb the river with ace high or give up now that we missed? In favor of betting, we have the (IMO sincere) read of weakness, and if he had a flush draw he may give up now. Against betting, there’s less than a PSB left, so we might run into a “if he had it he has it” sigh call. Also against betting, if he has a Q (which seemed likely) he now has trips and might call down, even though this changes nothing if I have a flush.

Thoughts?

We don’t have to bluff if he has a missed draw fwiw


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You kind of have the one card you want V to have???

That’s a good point.

Does that mean you play this as a bet/bet/give up on this turn and river? Or would you have played the flop or turn more passively?

After reading entire op it did not seem like you have much of a read, this seems like a bad river to bluff. I don't think villain will fold better than 7x.

It might be, but you played this so badly that his live read that you have air is better. To him, you're a generic 1/3 donkey. If a donkey has a nut flush on the flop, what does he do? He checks. So you don't have the nut flush. If you had a small flush or even TP, you wouldn't bet so small because you'd want any draws to fold. The initial read is that you have what you have, a draw and/or overs.

Now, he may fold on the river. But much of his range that is folding you beat already.

Point taken, thanks for the input. What’s everyone else’s flop/turn play then? (Presumably also what you’d do if you flopped the nut flush).

After some thought, I think this line (bet flop, bet turn, jam river) is also what I’d do if I’d flopped the nut flush out of position, but the reaction is making me wonder whether that’s incorrect.

+1

plus you said your read of him was he had a Q

What’s the “correct” flop/turn play, if betting half pot on the flop then 3/4 pot on the turn makes it clear that we have a draw? Are we just check/calling until we improve? It seemed to me like it would be hard to get paid off by many worse flushes if we do hit a fourth heart, so I thought the double barrel seemed appropriate with OK equity if called.

Anyway, result for this hand: I check/fold to $75 and he showed 22, so he flopped a set and rivered the boat.

I think H’s line is fine. I was just saying I wouldn’t barrel the river, which you didn’t. I play it mostly the same.

Definitely an awful river to bluff. Turn is meh, check is ok.

I'm fine with preflop and flop.

I probably just check the turn. If he's on a draw himself there's an ok chance we check down to victory. If semibluffing to get a weak hand to fold, I'd probably lean more to a smaller bet as those hands are likely folding to pretty much any size (especially since there is always the risk of a further river bet which he might just give up on now).

I'm check/folding the river. A Qx is never folding, especially for 3/4 PSB. I doubt he's getting here with a smaller pair. There's a chance he got here with an overpair but I doubt he's folding that either since he was tarping with it the whole way. A lot of players are straighforwardly checkbacking their busted draw (which we're ahead of), and our holdings eliminate a lot of his possible draws.

Read-wise, if I put any stock whatsoever into it, I'm more leaning to show-of-weakness-means-strength than anything else. But I would just leave that for tie-breaking close spots, which I don't think this is.

GcluelessNLnoobG