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Old 11-28-2015, 05:33 AM   #1
AlienBoy
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1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

1/3 blinds game in Los Angeles.

Villain is a young Asian woman (30-ish). She is a solid regular/pro. Beauty and brains? She's both. Dangerous. Today she's been running hot (a few hours earlier she flopped three sets in a row). She does not slow play, betting and raising big hands including sets on the flop.

I can think of two ways to play against her:

1) fold whenever she's in a hand.
2) make really Big hands against her.

In the past I've never been able to outplay her, though I think it's possible, hence the hand I am posting.

In this hand we are 6 handed.

Most stacks on the table are 300 to 500. Hero in the HJ has $1100, and villain in the SB has $1400.

Hero is dealt 67 in the HJ.


UTG folds, hero opens to 12. CO calls, BTN folds, SB villain raises to 30, BB folds, hero calls, others fold. HU to the flop.

Pot: 70

Flop: K8 5

Villain bets 40, hero calls.

Pot: 150

Turn: J

Villain bets 110. Hero calls. - here is the first question: I considered raising to 240 to take control and also set up a river bluff should we miss. However, I consider KK and possibly even JJ in her range here, along with the obvious AA. Obviously, we have zero fold equity against a set, LOL. So I just called.

Pot: 370

River: Q

Villain checks. Do we bluff here or surrender? I don't believe she ever checks a set here, and so now her range is polarized to AA and a much less likely AK (she would probably not raise to 30 PF with AK OOP).


Do we bluff, and if so how much?

If surrender is the best play, explain.

Thoughts on the turn play also encouraged.


Side note on ME: I feel that I am screwing up my turn and river play in a number of hands recently. I've been thinking I need to play the river more aggressively, and make fewer turn mistakes.
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Old 11-28-2015, 06:00 AM   #2
MastaC707
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Check back river. This is a pretty classic check the bricked board to induce a bluff. Turn is a call as well, as with the flop. You have too much equity to be raising and get blown off of your hand if she shoves. Its nice the K is the Kc so it eliminates AKcc giving you better chances that your FD is good. If you think you have good fold equity, then you can make a case for raising flop. But what is she 3betting out of the SB to 30? She cant expect you to ever fold that small of a raise that deep. She actually made a mistake by raising you too small and giving you a good price to try to stack her. You missed. Shes not going anywhere. Remember, when people are running hot, they typically just have it. Until you have proof shes going crazy and giving it away, which you describe her as solid, don't get fancy. Keep that healthy stack to have more chances to stack her, or other people.

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Old 11-28-2015, 06:37 AM   #3
NeverLosesAtPoker
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

If you were going to raise, you should have done so on the flop. Your equity goes way down on the turn so just call and then check river.
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:13 AM   #4
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
If you were going to raise, you should have done so on the flop. Your equity goes way down on the turn so just call and then check river.
There's no fold equity on the flop (not against this villain at least).

There's more fold equity on the turn, (and while we're a flip on the flop, were only 2:1 dog on turn except against a set). We have a lot more fold equity on the turn, except against a set.

We should only be semi bluffing with stacks this deep when we have fold equity, and there's none on the flop against her, but possibly some on the turn with a double barrel turn/river combo.
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:27 AM   #5
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

If she has no fold equity on the flop then she isn't as solid as you say she is...either that or there are some vital details about your image that you have not included.

The reason why a turn raise seems stronger is because it doesn't make sense to raise this turn with hands such as yours. You are advocating bloating up a pot when your equity decreases in order to make a multistreet bluff which will ensure you put 200bbs in the middle when you really have no clue how strong she is (unless she re-raises the turn which means you probably won't be able to realize your equity) .
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:51 AM   #6
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

The turn helps her range. She either isn't afraid of the J, say she has AK, or better. Or if she 3bet then cbet with AQ she has now picked up a gut shot. Shes not going anywhere, unless she 3bet a med-small pk pair, which this deep oop, might not be the best play on her part, going counter to your view of her as solid.

Masta--
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:53 AM   #7
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Also, if you raise turn, what are you trying to say? You got 2 pair? K8 is unlikely, so J8? that's about it. Not much to base a raise on.

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Old 11-28-2015, 07:55 AM   #8
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverLosesAtPoker View Post
If she has no fold equity on the flop then she isn't as solid as you say she is...either that or there are some vital details about your image that you have not included.

I guess I should restate - she has no fold equity HERE, on THIS specific flop with her very narrow range of hands in THIS specific scenario.

Her PF range is JJ+, she checks JJ (and possibly QQ) on this flop to me specifically.

My image against her: we both LAG/TAG - she knows that if I raise her on this flop I have AK, 88, or a flush draw. She's not folding KK or AA on this flop.raising with 88 here would be awesome as it looks like a flush draw. My point is based on my read, there is nothing she folds on this flop due to the flop texture and our history at the table.

As I mentioned, I only called the turn, as I felt I had insufficient fold equity, and would likely make more money with no increased risk if I hit any part of my draw (especially if I hit the straight).
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:57 AM   #9
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

i cant image V would be too "solid/regular pro" if shes minning it from the SB unless she loves playing inflated pots OOP. If youre fairly certain she doenst have any nutted hands in her range here, i think you can make an argument for bombing the river for like 300-350. repping QQ, KQ, QJcc, ATcc, slowed played sets. It depends on your image though, and whether or not she is a nit. Most players on 2p2 LLSNL are probs folding AA and AK.
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Old 11-28-2015, 08:01 AM   #10
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MastaC707 View Post
Also, if you raise turn, what are you trying to say? You got 2 pair? K8 is unlikely, so J8? that's about it. Not much to base a raise on.

Masta--
A Turn raise is repping a slow played 88, or a hit with KJ. As I said, I didn't think it'd work, and a call to hit my 2:1 draw was the best risk/reward scenario IMO.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MastaC707 View Post
The turn helps her range. She either isn't afraid of the J, say she has AK, or better. Or if she 3bet then cbet with AQ she has now picked up a gut shot. Shes not going anywhere, unless she 3bet a med-small pk pair, which this deep oop, might not be the best play on her part, going counter to your view of her as solid.

Masta--
She would never 3 bet a med/sm pair nor AQ OOP PF here. Her 3 bet OOP range against me is really narrow - I'd say JJ+.
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Old 11-28-2015, 08:19 AM   #11
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Add: my image.

I never open limp, and infrequently limp behind. I generally open raise 4x or 5x (12 to 15) and raise limpers 4x plus 1bb per limper. When in position against a 4 bet, I'll usually call with speculative hands (medium/small pairs and suited connectors).

She knows I will play back at her in some spots, but also that I will take free cards, so she always fastplays me.

She will slow down if I put up resistance, but she's tough and will not crumble on early streets.

She will never semi bluff hands like gunshots, her early street semibluffs will include at least a pair+draw or two overs+Draw.

She peels the flop with weaker draws like gut shots when she has decent implied odds.

On the other hand, she knows that I do play my draws strongly, including hands as weak as a gutshot with two overs. She also knows that I play strong hands strongly, and that I'm not afraid to be all in with a strong but non-nut hand.
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Old 11-28-2015, 09:23 AM   #12
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

I am betting this river 100% of the time. I just can't surrender a $370 pot.

The river is certainly NOT a blank in her eyes. Lets assume she has AK or AA. That QJ runout complete a myriad of sets and two pair hands that would play the hand just like our hero did.

The river bet doesn't have to be a bomb to be effective. $200 would like like a nice sized value bet.

How can we conceivably just walk away from a $370 pot on the river after a fast playing 3 better just checked to us on the end?
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Old 11-28-2015, 07:20 PM   #13
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aust1227 View Post
I am betting this river 100% of the time. I just can't surrender a $370 pot.
I agree with the other posters that I should just check back, and here's why:

Results:

Spoiler:
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Old 11-28-2015, 10:35 PM   #14
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

you were a favorite on the flop and I think raising the flop is the correct play.

board: kc8c5h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
7c6c 51.62% 511 0
AcAd 48.38% 479 0


If I had AA in this spot and someone raised me on this flop I would hate it.


The way you played it is fine - but you can't just suicide bluff the river after taking no initial aggression


She is checking this river to induce a bluff because she knows nothing worse can really pay her off and it's really hard to get 3 streets of value on a run out like this.
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Old 11-28-2015, 11:07 PM   #15
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

She played it like AA or AK. Not in love with river bluff because your line doesn't make a whole lot of sense and unless you absolutely bomb it'll be tough getting her off. The best place to run a bluff is probably the flop. I don't mind raising the turn though because it looks really strong. I guess it depends how you play your value hands to balance your play.
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Old 11-29-2015, 03:08 AM   #16
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Oh, I hate my river bluff too, makes me sick thinking about it.

Anyone here a pilot ? There's a thing in aviation called "I learned about flying from THAT", wherein a pilot admits to doing something completely ******ed (and lived to tell about it) so that other pilots could learn from the mistake. If fact, if as anplot you do something I got so dumb it's illegal, if you file a report exposing yourself, the FAA is barred from ever taking legal action.

So, I guess the above post is a "I learned about poker from THAT"

Lol, thank you for all comments.
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Old 11-29-2015, 03:39 AM   #17
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

wi
Quote:
Originally Posted by djevans View Post
you were a favorite on the flop and I think raising the flop is the correct play.

board: kc8c5h
Hand Equity Wins Ties
7c6c 51.62% 511 0
AcAd 48.38% 479 0


If I had AA in this spot and someone raised me on this flop I would hate it.
.
And she'd love it if she had KK, LOL

At this decision point I put her on KK/AA. Against that tight range I'm a slight dog, but still basically a coinflip.

Worse, there's zero fold equity against KK, and KK probably 3 b Td for most of my stack. We're nearly 400 blinds deep, and I'm not in the habit of flipping for stacks this deep.

Against this villain this deep in this spot, I don't like a flop raise, though it may set up a three barrel opportunity.

And I do agree that my river action was just plain dumb. Inn her post hands here that I played correctly, only hands where I'm doing something stupid, and I'm looking for confirmation of my stupidnes

Har.
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Old 11-29-2015, 03:47 AM   #18
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

One final comment: on the river, my imagination suddenly had me believe that maybe she had some sort of draw, and I could take it down.

It's an example of "Hope Springs eternal", in the magical fairyland of stupid plays…

I think we enter magical fairyland when we play too many hours without a solid break. I had been playing 10 hours, as the game was good and lots of people were spewing.

Last edited by AlienBoy; 11-29-2015 at 03:55 AM.
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Old 11-29-2015, 04:38 AM   #19
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

She told you her thinking behind what your river bet was, did she tell you what she would have thought your range was if you raised the flop?

Also if she is truly as competent as you claim she is her 3-bet range pre should be wider because she should be aware that you think it's super tight and be exploiting that fact. So she should have some light 3-bets in her range.

Even if she has no light 3-bets what if AQ is in her value betting range here. Unlike QQ and JJ that have showdown value, AQ can't expect to have that so I'm pretty sure she would c-bet with that here.

Add AQ into her AA/KK range even somewhat discounted if you want, and at least a small chance of some other Ax hands that were light 3-betting pre. Even if you discount those heavily they are still enough to give you some fold equity, and not just be a flip against her range here.

Also based on the way you describe her at the beginning getting in a race situation where you are the slight favorite, is actually fine. If she shoves over your raise you aren't exactly hating life. Especially considering you don't feel like you can outplay her.

In my mind this is a pretty academic raise on the flop, even without fold equity, and since I don't think her range can actually be as narrow as you say it is here, you should have some fold equity even.

Last edited by ITT666; 11-29-2015 at 04:45 AM.
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Old 11-29-2015, 04:39 AM   #20
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

If you bet river it needs to be way bigger. Perhaps an overbet. The Q is a scary card for AA/AK but $180 into $370 is just always getting called
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Old 11-29-2015, 07:19 AM   #21
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

Raise the flop, dude.
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Old 11-29-2015, 12:32 PM   #22
MastaC707
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

If you feel you have NO fold equity on the flop, as hero says based on his read, raising the flop is wrong.

Now, it's likely there IS some FE, but that's a different discussion.

Masta--
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Old 11-29-2015, 01:00 PM   #23
Aust1227
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

I like the river bet (I even like the sizing, as she is probably inelastic between 180 and 250). No reason to be sick over it. You made her make a tough decision, and you set yourself up later to get paid off when you spike a set or a random two pair.

You played it fine. You put her on a hand (and were correct). Your actions just didn't convince her.. It happens..
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Old 11-29-2015, 03:37 PM   #24
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Re: 1/3 missed draw - do we bluff or surrender?

I think the river bet gets called by all 1 pr + hands. I have this opinion from experience! Repping such a narrow range just doesn't work, not to mention bluffing into strength. You get the dreaded speech/call.

In these spots I remind myself that we both played the hand well. That is just how it goes sometimes. And I realize that the times we backdoor something or make the str8 we are getting paid.

You had good reads and good thinking imo. Nice hand.

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