Villain (effective stack $xxx; old Asian guy; hero recently called off his river bluff shove on flushy board)

3 limpers (including villain in EP-MP), hero raises to $20 from SB with 99, 4 callers

Flop ($83) QJ3
Checks around

Turn ($83) 9
Hero bets $55, fold, fold, villain shoves for $220, hero?

Seems like villain could have some bluff combos with a T, but any possible value hands we're beating would probably have bet flop (QJ, AA/KK, 33 -- except for the few combos of J9/Q9), so we really just have a bluff catcher.

Preflop is not the best. You’re OOP and this is essentially only pot sized. It’s going to get too much multi-way action. You have a strong hand, raise more. Also I think your pot postflop is off since you got 4 callers of your $20

If it is $83, you bet $55 and get jammed on for $220. That’s $358. You’re getting 2.17:1 on a call, so you need 31.5% to call (I’ll call it 32% per rake).

If we give him a range of 32 straight combos (KT/T8), 3 two pair combos (all the remaining J9), and T7cc-T2cc, we have 34.9%. Since I think he’s going to show up with additional weird things, and this becomes a pretty trivial shrug, call, probably lose but win often enough spot.


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Didn't you just catch a river bluff he tried to pull? Snap call.

Also, check the logic in hand reading. Does this guy limp/call premium pairs? The likelyhood of him having JJ+ is very low. You need 31.5% equity to call. You have 34% vs straights and Q9/J9 alone. If he has 33, QJ, and bluffs like pair+straight draw, pair + flush draw, etc.. you're even further ahead. In general, folding sets with only 80bb is bad. Sorry he got you this time. It's just a cooler.

I'm not really in love with preflop or result but that's me and I'm passive like that OOP.

I'm fine with flop.

With these remaining stacks I don't think we're going to be able to get away from out hand, and there are a crapload of stupid river cards. So I'd probably PSB the turn. As played, especially against a bluffer and given our weak looking line, I'm snapping pretty happily.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So he has a straight near always given action+removal. Calling is almost certainly a dog to folding, but how can you fold?! Maybe he's doing some super dumb stuff sometimes.

Call.

11 outs in the unlikely event that a spewy bluffer that we just sheriffed has the straight.

Easy money

I'm never folding. We know he can bluff, and he could easily have two pair, straight draw, flush draw, etc., even AQ/KQ, here.

Call.

You beat JT, J9, T9, KJ, K9, and XcXc