1/3 game, 11pm friday night, $200 max buy in.

Villain: Crazy. Absolutely crazy, had too much to drink, been losing all night as he was complaining about as soon as he came to our table. His preflop range is literally any two cards whenever he wants. (He opened for $20 with 73 and hit two pair against my friend).... Later he called $17 preflop against my mate with Q4 and 3 barrel bluffed on an (A 9 6 8 4) board whilst my friend flatted him.
He also just sucked someone out all in on the flop of J 8 3 with 73 against the other guys KJ. ($600ish)

Hero: Prob seen as TAG but will show aggression in limped pots no one else is interested in. Most likely seen as solid or maybe I am being arrogant.
Sitting on $450ish

Heros Hand: TT

I am on the button, villain is UTG+1.

Villain limps, along with like 3 other players, this is a very limp happy table and everyone will limp, I pop it to $20 with TT, blinds fold, V calls, everyone else folds.
Pot: $53 prerake - $48 after rake.

Flop: As 6c 2s
V checks. I raise $35. V instant calls.
I know he doesn't have the ace here, he would at least think about raising prior to check and when he instant calls he would think about check raising with an ace here. So he could potentially have the flush draw, calling with broadway, smaller pairs, 6x, 2x.
Pot: 123 prerake - $111 after rake.

Turn: 2d
V checks again. I value bet $55, V instant calls.
Pot: $232 prerake - $217 after rake.

River: Qc
V instant ships. I should've been watching him for when the card hits the board but was a bit too caught up and stared at the board because I was a bit too tired at this point.
My thoughts are, he could honestly have any busted flush draw here, but he can also have the two, he could have a full house, the queen could've hit his weird 6Q, Qs xs hands.... I'm not even sure what.
It is $350ish to win $900.

I'm not really beating much besides a busted flush draw, which I think he can have... but how often?

This spot is sick, I could prob call if the overcard didn't hit on the river, but it's a nasty river for me....

What would you do?

don't bet the turn,
if you do bet, definetely don't be 55

Yeah, looking back, that was a weak bet, I didn't want to give the flush draw a free card! I bet a bit less than half pot tho, was too weak

betting 55 into 230 gives them perfect odds to call with a flush draw. 20% to hit and 55/285$=19%.
So you are just bloating a pot with a marginal hand.
They will 100% call correctly with a flush draw, and with all the hands that beat you already. You gain 0 value from anything except a random 6.

preflop: fine.

flop: Against someone who will call with anything, why not bet the pot or more?

Turn: same question. If he leads out/raises with things that either beat the TT or air then why are you afraid to bet big?

River: Your sizing on previous streets left him enough space to make you uncomfortable. Against someone like this you need to use the concept of commitment against them. You needed to decide waaaay before the river whether or not you were willing to get all in on various boards and you needed to bet in a way that accomplished your goal. It is obvious to me that you had no plan.

You hit the nail on the head, I just spazzed out and really didn't know what to do.
You're right, I should've decided what to do after the flop c-bet and developed a turn sizing bet as well as a river action on various boards. I am ashamed to admit, I didn't have a plan and was very tired and a bit clueless.

My gut reaction is that if you're going to bet, you need to bet harder. (a few other posters suggested this) Charge the draws. If he is drawing and accidentally stumbles into a Q, so be it.

I probably bet more OTT something like $75-80. You always have to be suspicious when V c/c, c/c, then leads. Feels like V might have flopped a monster something like 66 or 22. Table dynamics can come into play here especially with drunks who misread cards sometimes. I could find a fold since we are over 100bb effective. It's a crappy spot but again it feels like a slow play.

Where are you playing that is raking $15 at $200 NL?

Turn bet is way too thin.

Nah I don't fold.

Everything missed and he reps too narrow. Hes going to be bluffing way too often for a fold to be correct with his line.

In Melbourne, Australia, the rake is 10% of the pot capped at $15.
No tips to dealers. And there is a royal flush jackpot.

The rake seems really high, but I think the games are way more actiony/softer than elsewhere.

fold. he has AQ or a deuce.

I think he would try to bluff you earlier,specialy after turn bet if he had air or drawing hand. Or maybe he is bluffing with Qxss.
Super aggresive & bluffy V becomes so passive till R is suspicious imo.

What if, on the flop, we were to bet 70% of all the possible holdings we would have raised with preflop that works best with the flop? Say we started with 100 combos we would have raised with & if TT is in that 70%, we bet 3/4 the pot [$36]

He calls & checks the turn. So, we now bet 70% of our remaining hands [49 combos] that works the best with the board thru the turn. If TT is in that list, we bet 3/4 pot again.

Now on the river, when he goes all-in, we have to defend against a possible bluff, so we call with 70% of our 49 remaining combos that works the best with that board. If TT is in that list of ~35 remaining combos, we call.

How's that for a plan?

So, most people here are missing the point I think.

I've seen some, "He has X or Y so do this."

I've also seen a lot of, "He's probably doing X."

I've only seen one poster even attempt to come up with a plan from preflop to river. That's the key here fellas. We can't just float through the hand and then decide what to do once we get to a tricky river spot. This situation should have never come up at all, and when it did due to bet sizing mistakes, there should have been a plan in place based on the river card. Granted we don't often expect to get donked into on the river, but it still should be in the back of our minds.

To me, this thread is much more about teaching a thought process than about what to do when this one specific thing happens against this one specific guy. We're not even thinking properly. Back up. Start over.

He has a deuce in his hand

I like a weak turn value bet if the 2 doesn't hit

Problem is, with your flop value bet, the likely hands for him to call you with that you are beating on the flop are 6x and 2x hands. Once the deuce pairs, half the hands you wanted to call just crushed you.

As played- On the river, he probably never has a Qxss because it would be trying to check or check call it down now that he has something to show down.
So the river is just a math play to decide how often you are good, he either has a Deuce-x+ or a busted flush draw, I don't think any aces are shoving the river here.

I find preflop difficult. The bottom line is that we know that if we get into a raised pot with this guy that there is a very good chance we are going to have to grit our teeth and call down with mediocre hands for big stacks, otherwise we risk constantly building big pots for him to steal. Are we ready to do that with TT, which will see some overs on the flop like all of the time? We do have position, so if he likely checks to the raiser on the flop at least we can check back a street and pot control. Anyways, there's pros and cons to raising vs calling. The pros is that obviously a raise will most likely get it HU against the loose cannon with us having position/initiative. The cons is that we are going to see lots of ugly flops and this guy is capable of putting our stack to the test. It's not clearcut, imo, although I'm sure others will see it that way. I don't hate an overlimp here, but I'm sure others will. Also, I'm not sure how your table plays, but a $20 raise after 4 limpers seems quite small when we know the first limper will call (which will often start the train, although I see here we succeeded in getting it HU).

SPR is about 9 on the flop. Are we going to feel comfortable playing for 3 streets worth of betting for stacks, even against this guy? I'm not. Are we ever going to feel comfortable bet/folding to this guy? I'm not. Against typical players I would bet/fold this flop. Against this guy, I'm checking behind and turning my hand into a bluffcatcher.

Same ideas for the turn. If we do bet the flop, the turn is a perfect place to pot control and bluffcatch the river.

Our play on all 3 previous streets set us up for the exact scenario we knew was going to happen: that this guy was going to put us to the test for our stack with a mediocre hand. If we knew that was going to happen, we should have either (a) knew exactly what our plan was going to be when facing that decision or (b) changed our play on prior streets to make the river decision easier.

ETA: Basically, what Spike said regarding planning the hand. Planning the hand occurs before we put in a single chip preflop, not after the flop cbet / etc.

Gplanthehand,imoG

Thanks guys.

Reading back on this hand history, I understand how much I butchered this hand. I will try to study more and plan hands better because I felt naked walking into this hand.

For those interested, He turned over the busted flush draw (9s3s).

I got all the chips back later during the night with interest anyhow.