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Old 03-21-2019, 07:55 AM   #1
aisrael01
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1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Game with typical loose/passive preflop action. Lots of limping and calling.

Villain sat down 45 minutes ago. My read is that he's a typical bad player at this level: way too wide preflop and with obvious bet sizing tells. In the past 45 minutes I have been involved in just two hands: I showed down QQ both times.

Hero has $600 and Villain covers.

OTTH: UTG and HJ limp. Hero raises to 25 in CO with QJ

(I like to open slightly larger in late position, normally to 20 plus 3 per limper)

SB,BB,UTG,HJ all call.

5-ways to the flop ($125): 943

Checks to me. With the backdoor flush draw, normally I c-bet here 3-ways, but 5-ways feels too ambitious. I check.

Turn ($125): Q

SB checks, BB bets 50, UTG and HJ fold, Hero calls, SB folds.

River ($225): 8

Villain checks. Hero?

On any non-8 river I would feel comfortable betting the river when checked to with QJ (whereas I would check back QT). The 8 completes the straight (making it more likely V may check back a hand like QK) and eliminates all the combos of Q8o/s from Villain's range. Can we still go for thin value, and if so, with what sizing?

Last edited by aisrael01; 03-21-2019 at 08:15 AM.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:14 AM   #2
KID777777
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

If he is leading the str8 draw ott I think he follows up otr a good % of the time

Mostly targeting weak pairs, 9x so like 95 or something

I would be betting QT 100% otr btw
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:16 AM   #3
DonkeyRock
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

I like $100 here, looks small enough that he will call off 9x.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:18 AM   #4
aisrael01
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by KID777777 View Post
I would be betting QT 100% otr btw
Even when the straight comes in?

My concern with the 8 on the river was that Villain might check back a hand as strong as QK because he's scared of the straight. (I just edited my post to clarify that concern.)

Hadn't considered that we might be able to get value from 9x. That would make this an easier bet with QJ.

Thanks for the feedback.

Last edited by aisrael01; 03-21-2019 at 08:27 AM.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:21 AM   #5
QuadJ
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Thin value is never mandatory, it's always a judgement call. I think this is a pretty clear check without more information. Your hand is very transparent as QX or a club draw. You are never getting better to fold and not really any worse that can call thinking they are best. Without more information you don't have any idea what other hands villain can have that might call or how likely he is play a better QX cautiously or trap with two pair+. Your really hoping villain has QT or 9X and will put you on a bluff.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:37 AM   #6
dropnloads
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Never Bet.
What Hands are you putting Villain on that you want a call?
And if you bet Villain is likely folding majority of time anyway.

Maybe there is value to be had if your river bet looks like a bluff and Villain calls with a Pair of 99's or 88's or Q-10, but I don't think that happens very often.

IMO...A calling Villain on river might have made some weird two pair hand holding 8-9 or 3-4 and make the crying call. Or very slow playing a set. I think this scenario is more likely then player calling with one pair or ace high

Pot is 225. In 1/3 game.
Just check and take it down.
Since most of your river bets are going to end with villain folding anyway, and any villain call is more likely to be beating you then not.
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:43 AM   #7
mdelore
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Looks too thin, BB calling an 8x preflop raise OOP should have you dominated here a lot. He's also got all the set combos, and leading turn into 4 people for $50 is never a bluff.
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Old 03-21-2019, 11:06 AM   #8
monikrazy
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Betting river for value is awful but turning hand into a bluff may be ok.
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Old 03-21-2019, 11:15 AM   #9
aisrael01
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Okay, glad to hear that my check back wasn't a mistake. I think I would have been inclined to value bet KQ in this spot, but QJ felt too thin. Results: I check and Villain flips over Q5s. Very surprised to see this hand. I think if I give him all Qxs combos and QTo then the river is an easier value bet with QJ. I didn't know how loose this player was before this showdown.
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Old 03-21-2019, 11:19 AM   #10
Lapidator
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Just check back here and remember the result for next time.
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Old 03-21-2019, 11:32 AM   #11
Spanishmoon
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

V's line is perplexing. Surely he's betting his A9 combos on flop. He's betting his 43s too.

He might lead turn with his Q9-8, but he would have lead river with them.

So this leaves QT/QJ/KQ, a bunch of bluffs and KcJc. A bet targets only his Qx holdings. We chop one, beat one and lose to one. We're only getting calls from QJ/KQ.

So I'm checking behind and expecting to see KcJc or QT.
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Old 03-21-2019, 12:41 PM   #12
tomdemaine
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

In my games I'm betting this river small 75-100 for value for 2 reasons. Firstly I think its (just barely) +EV. This type of fish may well check a 9 on the flop bet it on the turn and call it on the river plus they'll have plenty of janky queens in their range that will call.

But the second reason is to build my image for the observant regs (my games have a small number of regs that all know each other). I wouldn't bet this river against a competent player because no 9s would call and there are almost no janky queen combos in their preflop range but I want them to think that I might be value betting this lightly against them so that when I bet 2P on this river I get looked up by KQ. You can quickly get a rep for thin v betting even if you only do it vs fish. Especially if you very occasionally mix in turning top pair bad kicker into a bluff that could be interpreted as a "bad" value bet when called.
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Old 03-21-2019, 12:42 PM   #13
gobbledygeek
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

I typically just overlimp cuz I see no reason to raise if we're going to go so multiway.

I also check behind on the flop.

Turn is a very dicey call. Dude just bet into the world and we're actually ahead of very few typical-raise-calling-Qx. Against some, I think you could consider a nit fold here. But overall we probably mostly have to call and evaluate the river.

Think I would mostly check back the river. The only reasonable TP we beat is QT, so we really need him to be paying off with extremely weak hands a lot in order to make betting into better worthwhile. ETA: FWIW, I don't see nearly as much 9x betting this turn from OOP into the world on this turn as others do (most players just check, no?).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-21-2019, 01:06 PM   #14
fightingillini
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

You have to determine what you will do if you bet and get raised.

If you will fold, you should check behind. You have a showdown-able hand, no reason to get potentially bluffed off of it. Pot is big enough to win now.

If you plan on calling a raise, then sure go for thin value and bet $100 and hope 9x or QT calls.

I think it's a negative EV play to bet $100 and call any raise. If you assume V won't ever bluff raise, I don't think you get enough calls from QT or 9x to make this a profitable call vs the times when V calls with a better hand.

I would just check behind and see if Hero wins.
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Old 03-21-2019, 04:39 PM   #15
StinkHolePatrol
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

I check, you're beat alot here by better queens. He lead into 5 people, wishful thinking a 9 does that.

I also check because in case I am ahead I want to see what he's donking with into 5 people so i can raise him lightly in the future if needed.
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Old 03-21-2019, 05:57 PM   #16
$FishWreck$
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Grunch:

Just check it back. Value too thin. Villain shouldn't be too wide here calling an 8 BB raise from SB, and there aren't enough likely hands to get value from, basically QT and maybe T9. True, J10 and 98 would have probably bet river, but KQ and AQ are more likely to call.
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Old 03-21-2019, 06:36 PM   #17
Jasaka
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingillini View Post
You have to determine what you will do if you bet and get raised.

If you will fold, you should check behind. You have a showdown-able hand, no reason to get potentially bluffed off of it. Pot is big enough to win now.

If you plan on calling a raise, then sure go for thin value and bet $100 and hope 9x or QT calls.

I think it's a negative EV play to bet $100 and call any raise. If you assume V won't ever bluff raise, I don't think you get enough calls from QT or 9x to make this a profitable call vs the times when V calls with a better hand.

I would just check behind and see if Hero wins.
I think it's a little more nuanced than this because it's V-dependent. If the V is a LP fish then you can bet knowing his range is really wide and he might call with worse but will only raise when he has you crushed, so you can easily fold if you get raised. I would bet pretty small in this case (like $40 or 50). However, against a competent thinking reg who has a tight range and will only call with better, I would probably check back or if i think he can possibly consider a Hero fold, I might turn my hand into a bluff by polarizing myself with a large bet to possibly get weak two-pair or KQ to consider folding (mostly I would check back though).
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Old 03-21-2019, 06:46 PM   #18
johnjscott1296
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I typically just overlimp cuz I see no reason to raise if we're going to go so multiway.

I also check behind on the flop.

Turn is a very dicey call. Dude just bet into the world and we're actually ahead of very few typical-raise-calling-Qx. Against some, I think you could consider a nit fold here. But overall we probably mostly have to call and evaluate the river.

Think I would mostly check back the river. The only reasonable TP we beat is QT, so we really need him to be paying off with extremely weak hands a lot in order to make betting into better worthwhile. ETA: FWIW, I don't see nearly as much 9x betting this turn from OOP into the world on this turn as others do (most players just check, no?).

GcluelessNLnoobG
I listened to a podcast w/ bart Hanson & a professional online 6-max player recently. During which, the player said that if you are passive you will not improve nor win when trying to move up stakes and beat harder opponents.

My point being, why do you recommend in so many of your posts, to play so nitty & a reactive approach? OP should be betting here around $80-120 on this river. BB can be betting turned FDs, draws w/ a pair, worse queens, etc.
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Old 03-21-2019, 06:53 PM   #19
johnnyBuz
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Re: 1/3 -- mandatory thin value?

I don't see this as that thin. Bet $75-90.
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