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1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit 1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit

07-24-2014 , 03:11 PM
Just a quick question about what to do in this situation.

Hero ($650): UTG+1 AA raises to $15
3 callers including SB.

Flop: 1086

SB checks, Hero bets 35. Call from HJ and SB.

Turn: Q

SB checks, Hero bets 85. HJ folds. SB check-raises to 200. Hero opted to call.

River: 7

SB all in for 315. What should the Hero do with limited information on this player?


Spoiler:
I tanked for about 3 to 4 minutes thinking what hand plays this way when every draw has hit. It would be a very loose shove with a set or two pair. I was holding the nut flush draw card. I had nothing but a bluff catcher and could not find a hand that would be bluffing with that run out. I find the fold and the guy turns over KJ for a missed flush and straight draw on the turn. I understand I was getting nearly 3:1 on a call but could not think of hand hands that are a bluff, obviously I didn't think about KJo as a float.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:17 PM
Your price is ~25-26% ott (V can have sets or straights so I'm figuring all 9 spades are still live) and you are only about 18-20% to hit the flush. So even none of you're outs dead you don't have the right price. And 1 pair is good almost never here. I'd fold ott.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:44 PM
We don't want to go multiway with AA in a raised pot, imo. So I'd either (a) raise more preflop or (b) limp/reraise. If the table is loose and aggro, option b is best. If it limps around, oh well, play carefully and on the nitty side.

SPR actually ain't too horrendous here as it is above 10, so long as we get things HU on the flop. In a multiway pot on a drawy board, I think we can get away with small 1/2 PSBs on most streets if it ends up HU on the flop, and fold to any raise (where I doubt people will be getting too out-of-line). I'm ok with the 1/2 PSBish size bet on the flop.

I would check the turn. A bunch of draws just got there (the obvious flush draw, as well as J9), plus there's also a chance we were behind on the flop. If we're raised, it's unlikely we'll have the odds to call for our flush draw. If someone bets, we'll have to evaluate to see if we think we have the implied odds to call (noting that our implied odds on a four-to-a-flush board probably ain't great). As played, a check/raise is extremely strong and I would fold pretty easily, even readless, without the odds. Next time do the math for us, but it looks like pot is $450 and we're being asked to call $115, so we actually have about the necessary immediate odds to chase our flush draw, so I would also call.

Easy fold on the river, imo. There doesn't seem to be that many (any?) busted draws that could be bluffing, nor many worse hands that think they are value betting (KK + spade draw?).

GcluelessNLnoobG
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Your price is ~25-26% ott (V can have sets or straights so I'm figuring all 9 spades are still live) and you are only about 18-20% to hit the flush. So even none of you're outs dead you don't have the right price. And 1 pair is good almost never here. I'd fold ott.
OP should have done the math for us, but I believe we are getting about 4:1 on the turn ($115 to win $450).
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
Next time do the math for us, but it looks like pot is $450 and we're being asked to call $115, so we actually have about the necessary immediate odds to chase our flush draw, so I would also call.
115/450 = 0.25555

What I said wasn't a guess. Hero doesn't have DO. If you can hit a spade otr and get $125 called by V, then you have IO.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Your price is ~25-26% ott (V can have sets or straights so I'm figuring all 9 spades are still live) and you are only about 18-20% to hit the flush. So even none of you're outs dead you don't have the right price. And 1 pair is good almost never here. I'd fold ott.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:51 PM
115/(450+115) = 0.2035, imo.

Gnotamathguy,butI'mguessingthereisa100%chancethato neofusisrightG
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 03:55 PM
Check turn. You don't want to get raised off your draw and it's hard to get called by worse. If I had red AA I'd bet fold turn. Fold turn. If he had a flush, you only have 7 outs. As played fold river. Yes he was bluffing now but the vast majority of time he has it.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 05:46 PM
Ya take 2 weeks off and ya forget how to do math. The 20.4 is right, flat ott to hit a spade otr. c/f missed spades. The tricky part is what to do if a spade (that maybe isn't the 6s) hits.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel
Ya take 2 weeks off and ya forget how to do math. The 20.4 is right, flat ott to hit a spade otr. c/f missed spades. The tricky part is what to do if a spade (that maybe isn't the 6s) hits.
Even with ~immediate odds, it's still dicey. As Shady says, we might only have 7 outs if villain already has a flush (and he might not pay off small flushes). Plus making top set on the river could also be really tricky too, and 6s as you mention.

GsighcallingtheturnG
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote
07-24-2014 , 07:24 PM
Thanks guys for the thoughts. Sorry for not supplying a lot of information, it was the first time I've posted about a hand on here.
1/3 Live: AA when every draw hit Quote

      
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