Game is 1/3 at a local casino. 6-handed late at night and quite splashy. Lots of big preflop raises getting called and stacks going in pretty light. Hero has won a big pot recently with AA multiway on JQ3r where hero raised preflop to 25 over a UTG straddle and got 4 callers. Bet 100 on the flop and called a jam from a middle aged Asian businessman for 180 more. Sucked out vs QJo.

OTTH:

UTG straddles 6. Tilted whale (300) calls 6. Hero in CO (1100) raises to 26 with red AA. Good solid reggy looking player (550) flats BTN. Whale calls.

Flop (88): J93r

Whale checks. Hero bets 55. BTN calls. Whale folds.

Turn (198): J93 T all rainbow.

Hero checks. BTN bets 110. Hero tank calls (contemplating folding but decided it was way too nitty. Thoughts?)

River (418): J93 T 5

Hero checks. BTN goes all in for about 350. Hero?

Thinking river is a pretty standard fold but looking for input on turn decision. Can we ever fold turn after checking? Should hero bet turn? Seems like a really bad turn to barrel where T is much better for villain's range and we get put in weird spots often.

C/C turn is good. River is a x/decide.

Since the only 'reads' that you provided are, "Good solid reggy looking player," it's pretty difficult for the forum to help you with your river decision.

Nh.

Hero played it optimally.

Fold river.

While it seems conceivable that villain could be bluffing this river with a wide range, in reality he has a lot of QT, T8, QJ, KJ type hands which take a shot on the turn planning to give up on the river (hoping to be good some proportion of the time).

Its just not that easy for them to bluff jam 116bb on the river like this. We have blockers to AQ/A3s and if he is capable of bluffing this river with hands like 98s (only 3 possible combos) then he's also capable of jamming light for value with J9, JT, T9 and 33.

I'm not in love with xc, xf river line. Our hand is slightly underrepped so villain can value-shove worse.

I think I prefer bf the turn because I'm not sure villain has enough hands to turn into bluffs though whether he would jam qq/kk seems important.

If we bet say 115 on turn and villain calls, then river feels like a check/decide as villain could slowplay value hands on this texture.

I agree with monikrazy. I bet/fold the turn and x/decide river.

I like this line better as well. AP, once you call the turn, you have to fold the river, especially if this V was around when you called the other shove with just one pair.

Based on the description of the game, I'd raise to $35, because I wouldn't make it $26 with AK or JJ.

We have 1 pair vs gamblers. Just realized that you didn't take the rake out of the $88 so $55 is good. But now Reg calls. I don't think QTs & T8s is a hand he wouldn't play, so that's 8 combos & 9 combos of sets. Don't think he'll continue past the turn unimproved with TJs T9s QJs.

I think V improved to a better hand. The problem you have is if he is a good hand reader & he has you on an over-pair. Then you bet into OTT and he raises with all kinds of outs putting the pressure on you. Still a b/f OTT is better than c/f IMO.

I'm not calling the river.

Initially after reading OP and replies I was firmly in the b/f turn, X/decide river camp.

Then I got to testing out some reasonable ranges for BTN and it's pretty easy for hero to be at or lower than 50% equity vs BTN's flop calling range on the turn. Should we bet while OOP into a competent opponent when we have <=50% equity? That's a genuine question to which my maths-phobic brain doesn't know a precise answer.

Once BTN continues turn vs a bet from us I put the villain on minimum of 57% equity and that's with $350 behind and position. Are we just putting ourselves in an unwinnable situation on basically every river apart from an A?

I'm not good at the maths but my gut says, against a competent opponent I want to x/f turn. (Puke!)

I realise this is pretty exploitable. I guess the problem comes from the fact hands are going multiway vs fish and with big pots on the flop. This means you're having to raise a perhaps overly tight range quite big out of position so you can't often have nutty hands postflop while competent opponents in position can still profitably call a wider range preflop because of great implied odds. You can't achieve much balance postflop and thus have little protection if anyone good gets in the pot along with the fish.

This is a problem I'm constantly wrestling with in my games late at night. Anyone able to point me at a useful thread discussing this?