1/3 game - $200 buy in game.

Villain($200ish): Has shown willingness to bluff, thinking player. Never seen him before, seems recreational but has basic understanding. Only tangled one hand with him tonight, where I turned two pair (top and bottom) and lost to his top two pair (didn't show..... Perhaps he thought I called his river v alue bet with weaker than that) He has been on a downward spiral in recent hands and has dumped maybe 2 buy ins so far. Got to $500 and now down to 200ish.

Hero($200 ish): young asian, haven't really been to many show downs, generally takes the pot down. Card dead all night. Has shown down maybe less than 10 hands in 5 hours. Did make a call previous hand to this one with top pair, weak kicker on a draw heavy board when another villain overbet. Almost always c-bets preflop raises. I do have an image for 3 betting a lot, and generally get folded to.

1x MP call $3, then folded all around to hero, in the cut off, sees JJ who raises to 16. Been raising to 16 pre all night, pretty standard for table, haven't been changing bet sizes.
Button (villain) calls. blinds and EP fold.

Flop: 983 (Pot is: $36)
Hero bets $26, Villain instant raises to $75. Hero?

Thoughts:
-Instant raise?
Perhaps value betting his 9x, 8x? I don't think he has a set here, wouldn't they generally try to play this slower or at least hollywood a little? I am just clicking buttons with the c-bet almost and the flop doesn't really look like it hits my range so he could do this with almost air as he has position?


Sorry again if I have missed anything, this is only my second hand question and may have missed some things.

First, I don't like our seat. We're sitting to the direct right of a guy who is thinky, bluffy, and based on his recent spiral, probably loose. It's not imperative right now since we're only sitting with 66bb stacks, but as soon as stacks get any larger we should move.

I'd raise to $20 preflop. Yes, I know your "standard" is $16, but I think a better idea than a "standard" raise is a 10% of likely effective stack raise if we can get away with it, and at this shortstacked table we should be able to easily. If we raise to $20, we have a much simpler overpair stack off postflop HU SPR (4.5 which can be accomplished in 2 streets versus awkward 5.75).

The board is very drawy. I would feel committed, especially against a guy who can be thinky/bluffy. Thanks to our "standard" preflop raise size, we've created a slightly awkward SPR over 5, which means we'll need 2 overbets in order to get things over by the turn (which is our goal when we feel committed on this drawy of a board, imo). So I would overbet the flop to $45 which will leave us with a slight overbet shove for the turn.

For the most part, I really dislike our flop bet size. This will create a $88 pot with $158 left. The board is just too drawy and our committed hand too vulnerable to want to drag this out over 3 streets, and yet that's what the small bet sets us up for. The *only* thing I like about a smaller bet is that if we think it will induce a bluffy/semi-bluffy villain to raise. And, as played, it looks like it has. Snap shove for me at this point. If villain put in 8% of his stack preflop HU and outflopped us, nice hand sir. Again, a bigger raise preflop would get in a larger percentage of stacks where we'd be even more comfortable getting it in postflop; but against this guy on this board, still easy stack off.

GcluelessNLnoobG

What did villain do with top 2 earlier? Were u ip and just called down or were u oop and did he just call down or raise? The point is how does he play 2pr here...

Also against 2pr and combo draws for a range your doing pretty badly... Idk prob closer to a fold than a shove tbh

Btw vill is prob nvr bluffing here after putting in close to half his stack

im shoving but not loving it. You might get called by A9, you will get called by TT that is best case scenario. A lot of time I think you are flipping against AcXc.

Not a great spot but not awful either is my opinion

You could flat and ship any non connected card...flush or straight cards.

Also stop being a turd and betting awkward numbers like $16...make it $15 or $20.

Grunching:

Answer to the above question is no. A set would not play this slower b/c there are too many draws on this board. Same goes for two pair.

V may be semi-bluffing with a draw, but there is no reason to think he would bluff with air here given hero's tight image. Floating the flop to steal the turn would make more sense anyway.

I'd fold. You're beat more of than not and crushed by the hands that beat you. You may not be much ahead of most of his draws.

Personally, I think it is a bad idea to put too much importance on an instant raise. Different players do different things. However, one might think that V would have at least stopped to consider a slow play with a set before seeing the draws and raising. Likewise, raising with 9-x or 8-x doesn't seem like an instant decision.

Raising instantly with a strong 12+ out draw (QcJc, Qc10c, Jc10c, 7c6c, or 6c5c) or an obviously vulnerable hand like two pair makes more sense. I still fold though.

This is a great spot for V to fast play a set, so if he is a thinking player he absolutely has sets in his range. If his range is sets, 89, combo draws, nut flush draws, and pair + fd we are in bad shape, and it is a fold. If we think his range is much wider due to downward spiral we can ship. Even with tilt factor I am folding in this spot.

Never ever ever flatting in this spot. Would put is in a position to have to c/f some turns after committing almost 50% of our stack. gross.

Agree with GG that going $20 pre (as a standard) is better. Sets up a cbet of ~$30-35 into 40 OTF. We then could have 3b shipped over his raise OTF. Pre is the most important street, that is where we can set up advantageous SPRs for our hands.

I prefer a check on such a draw heavy board

as played-
Call and shove any non club, or Ace

I can't find a fold here. Too many draws and top pair hands in villains range. I'm calling as a semi float and proceeding cautiously

I ended up shipping it because I felt he had a lot of 8x, 9x, Axc, even up and down draws in his range and he snapped me off.

Turned over A6c and I held on for the pot.

I was going for this, hence the very small 2/3ish pot raise, as I generally do cbet that much, so didn't want to actually have a hand, kind of under representing my hand.... Not sure if correct tho.

Seems my bet sizing was a bit off and I should've just called and evaluated the turn.

If you intentionally bet small to look weak against this bluffy opponent anticipating a raise, you played the hand well postflop (including shipping over the raise), imo.

Gflattingtoevaluatetheturnishorribleinthisspot,imo G