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1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card 1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card

12-19-2014 , 06:53 AM
Eff stacks $300+, 4 limps to Hero otb, who limps with T6cc

Flop ($15ish): T76r
UTG leads $15, folds to Hero who raises to $45, UTG calls

Turn ($105): 9r
UTG checks, Hero checks

River ($105): 2
UTG checks, Hero ???

UTG is a mid-50's, decent regular player
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 08:52 AM
Raise or fold pre (almost always folding). T6s is a really bad hand. If you're going to play it, you want to have some FE, so I'd raise if I were going to play it.

I might raise slightly more on the flop since our hand is likely best, yet very vulnerable. I like $50-$55.

Turn check is good.

River could go either way depending on V tendencies. We've got serious SDV, so I'd probably check back the river. There aren't too many worse hands that are calling against most Vs. It's very tough for us to represent that we have an 8 here.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 11:15 AM
How is the river not an easy value bet? Do we really think he'd check an 8 OTR after the turn checked through? He can pay off with many worse two-pair hands and even many one pair hands, because our line looks a little FOS. Easy bet, probably even a b/c if villain is any kind of aggro (I don't take our read to be that he's an OMC).
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 11:29 AM
T6s is a fold or squeeze hand preflop. There are just not enough ways to flop or draw to a good hand.

Flop raise is right, turn check probably correct. River depends on villain, how much worse will call a bet, could villain be trying to get to river cheaply with a set, can you get T9/T7 to fold and will villain check/raise with an 8? Against the average decent regular I probably bet $60 more often then not, but there are villains I would check this. Unless villain likes bluff check/raises I'm giving up if raised on river.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 11:36 AM
Fold or raise pre (I advocate a fold). Why did you check turn? I would have bet turn after raising flop and his checking. At this point, I could go either way. After checking the turn, we probably have to bet since he might think we are full of it and call with a pair of 10s. Definitely folding to a check raise.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 02:46 PM
preflop I'm meh about, I don't like playing 3 gapers like T6cc because you get raped by JT on 9 8 7 boards and our flush draw is weaksauce. So basically we are just hoping to spike two pair or flop trips and in that case we might as well be playing ATC. But folding seems blah to, so limping and hoping to flop gin is meh. Not a huge leak. Not boner inspiring. Ultimately, I think limping is +EV just because we are in position and our villains will often make mistakes we can exploit, not to mention we can float or steal in a lot of situations provided our villains play their hands face up.

Flop raise is fine.

Turn check is fine

River is an easy bet/fold vs most players. Most players aren't sophisticated enough to bluff raise here at the 1/3nl level, so if you bet and he raises we can be 95% sure we are beat and just fold.

Lastly, bet/folding in these spots help us long term. One of the things that drives my villains crazy is it "seems" like I'm always betting. Once my villains believe this, it's ridiculous how light I get called down.

Conversely, if you don't bet spots like this how readable are you? Villains will see you check this back and they will "know" that you don't bet scare cards on the river unless you got it. Or that you are polarized, you only bet if you have it or have air. Going for thin value in spots like this is crucial to reaching that "next level". You bet $50 and V calls, you just increased your winnings in this spot by 100%. Getting that extra bet in where most of our villains wouldn't is at the heart of Reciprocity.

Every time we make a +EV play our villains would not make, we win
Every time we avoid a -EV play our villains would not avoid, we win
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-19-2014 , 03:30 PM
Bet $35 on river for value. Fold to a c/r. 1/3 pot bet will get looked up by a T or worse two pair. We may value-own ourselves but it's spots like this we need to get some thin value to increase our earn rate.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-20-2014 , 01:15 AM
Your good here. Bet/fold.
I am sizing quite large here. Maybe $70. Small $30 bet induces to often.

Plus $70 looks like a large bet. Even though in relation to pot it realley isn't that big. You will get Hero called by lots of hands.

If he raises it's a fold.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-20-2014 , 01:47 AM
I like a small value bet here. If you're ahead more than 50% of the time when you bet and he calls, then it's a profitable bet.

He certainly has hands like 10x, 76, and A7 in his range. And it is unlikely he has an 8 since he checked the turn and river. So I'd say go for thin value. I'd bet smallish since a big bet on this board will likely scare off most 1-3 opponents.

As always, if your opponent check raise bluffs a lot, then you can't value bet as much and you should not really go for thin value bets.
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote
12-20-2014 , 11:02 AM
Results:

I checked behind and V showed T9o guys for better two pair
1/3: Line check, flop two pair, bad turn card Quote

      
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