Hero sitting on $400
Villain covers ($700). Have been playing with villain for about 90 minutes, doubled up relatively early with a set. No other hands seen at showdown. Involved in a decent amount of pots.

UTG + 1 raises $10
MP calls
Villain calls
Hero dealt Jc9c on BTN calls
BB calls

5 players, $50 to the flop

Flop: Jd8c2c

UTG + 1 checks, MP checks, villain bets $32, hero flat calls the rest fold

Turn: 7c ($110)

Villain checks. Hero bets $60. Villain raises to $150. Hero flats.

River: 7d ($410)

Villain goes all-in. Hero has $195 left. Hero??

don't understand why you called the 150 if you were not going to get it all in on the river.

fold turn
fold river

Hands you beat (on the turn) that are realistic:

88, 22. Six combos

Hands you beat (on the turn) that are somewhat realistic:

JJ, J8s. Three combos (1 of JJ and Jh8h, Js8s). 7c6c, 6c5c, 5c4c, 6c4c.

Hands you beat that he could have, but unlikely:

T9. 87. Tc7c

Hands you lose to on the turn.

All Axs (depends on how loose he is preflop will be your gauge on how many low Ax he can have).

KcTc. KcQc.

QcTc. Qc9c.


So you beat 13 most-likely combos on the turn and you lose to 10-11 combos on the turn. Not to mention the number of times he has 87/T9.

I would shove turn.

River is most likely a fold even getting 3 to 1, but I haven't ran the numbers to see if it's close to a call.

Pukes all over the table. Then calls. He either has the nut flush or air. You're getting about 3-to-1. I think he has a naked ace of clubs or something like that often enough for this to be profitable.

Villain should never have a boat here. For him to have a boat, he'd have to flop a set (discounting 87/72/J7), see a massive scare card on the turn and think "I should definitely risk giving a free card now, so that I can check/raise against his straights and flushes."

So villain either raised preflop with AcXc, bet the flop as a semi-bluff, then check-raised with the nuts on the turn, and then jammed the river when the board paired, figuring he's going to have to call a river shove from you anyway. That last street makes perfect sense, but the turn play is a little dicey. That line is definitely possible.

But it's also possible that he has AcKx or AcAx and has stubbornly decided "goddammit I'm going to win this pot." Random blowups with big starting cards are a common occurrence at 1/2nl.

Bottom line: the 7d was effectively a blank. If you were going to call him on the turn, then you should be calling him on this river.

This.

The real decision in this hand was on the turn.

Is there any dispute that the turn is a call, then? And of consequence, the river?

No one has air here at 1/3.

Also disagree that if you call turn, you have to call river.

You don't beat 87. You don't beat 88. You don't beat 22. You don't beat JJ.

There is now 7+ combos you don't beat.


I would shove turn for the reasons I stated. You have ~70% equity on the turn vs the range I gave.

River is really close between fold and call.

You need 24.69% equity on river to break-even on the call. It's close, but I guess it's a call unless you know this particular villain. Tough to make a judgment in the vacuum. Versus the range I gave, you have it, but unsure if he is still shoving hands like T9 after getting called on turn and board pairing on the river.

As weird as his play is on the turn, I have never see even the biggest fish float with air on the flop, c/r scary turns and then jam scary rivers.

I think villain shows up with 88, 22 and AXc waaaaaay too often to make a call at 3:1 profitable. As in not even close.


Bet bigger on flop, then bet bigger on turn and never fold.

Are you advocating raising the flop? I flat called V's open. Betting bigger on the turn would certainly make it easier for me to GII odds wise, but don't I fold out a lot of value from V's weaker holdings?

90 minutes and no reads?

Constructive input only please..

It might be short, but I think that is constructive advice. A lot of 1-2 villains won't check-raise the turn without the nuts or the near nuts. Against those guys, the turn is a bet/fold. Others will spazz in raised pots.

90 minutes in, I think you should have a detailed plan for this specific guy.

We have a lot of equity on the flop vs non sets. Once/if a flush is made on the turn, that equity will be obvious to both us and the villain, and betting for value becomes harder. Part of this equity can only be realized as fold equity, which in turn is realized through raising.

The idea is we can fold out some better jacks by raising, as well as scare off flush draws that dominate us. If we flat, the better pairs get to see the flush draw hit/not hit and act accordingly, same for the bigger flush draws. The only reason to flat would be if we put opponent on complete air and we want him to continue bluffing, doubt that's likely given it is a 5 way pot, or you are convinced you are way behind, which is basically a soul read on a set.

IMO not many villains c/r the turn completing a straight and a flush with turned middle 2P or sets.

After the pf cold call (he was not PFR) and flop lead, I'm ranging him on
88, 22, JJ (7 combos)
J8s (2)
QQ (6)
AJ, KJs, QJs, JTs (14)
AK, AQ, KQ, QT, 97 (5)

I'm raising the flop to about $100, targeting the jacks, particularly the weaker ones. If he shoves, I'm giving him credit for the set, overpair, or 2P and folding. If he calls I'm checking back the turn or starting to extract value if I hit one of my draws.

On the turn, I interpret this as binking a flush. I think the c/r is the nuts that figures either it'll get a c/r or some deception for more value on the river. [I don't necessarily endorse those thoughts; merely claim them plausible.] I therefore fold to the c/r.

On the river, nothing has gotten any better and I'm more than 25% confident that the lead flop, c/r turn, shove river line isn't a bluff. So I fold the river.

I'm fine with getting into a multiway pot for relatively cheap with great position, so I'm cool with preflop.

Pair + flush draw is a hand that is typically hogging up a decent amount of equity, so obviously we're not folding the flop. In this situation, I lean towards just flatting. If stacks were a bit shorter then I think we could get more aggro and commit, but there is quite a lot of stacks behind, and if a deepstack is willing to get stacks in on this flop, we're most likely getting our stack in as a huge 2+:1 dog. Also, none of our outs are nuttish. Also, with TP we have some showdown value in position; it's not as if we have just bottom pair and our absolutely looking for FE. Raising isn't horrible as we have good equity, could steal a decent pot possibly with the worst hand right now, and can set us up for a free river card. But I still lean towards flatting in this case.

I'd probably bet slightly more on the turn since the OESD also got there and it probably ain't folding to one bet. I fold to the check/raise. Our hand kinda looks like exactly what it is and yet we just got check/raised on a big street. There aren't too many worse flushes out there, and are they really going to check/raise versus possibly a bigger one?

I don't get to the river, but we're really not beating much now that the board is paired. An overaggro 65cc?

GcluelessNLnoobG

+1

Gtheycheck/callandtrytofillup,imoG