Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
TT, 99, 88, Axcc. Deny equity to hands like AcKx, AcQx that may have called flop. We still have the best hand here quite often and we force villain to bluff catch. And in the event he has QQ+ we still have five outs.
villain is described as ABC, which means he is unlikely to play any of those hands that way. he has something like Ac5c much more rarely than big pairs, and he's probably rarely/never peeling with AcKx. even an ABC player will often check/shove AcKc type hands on the flop or get it in pre. I doubt he's going broke with a pair under Jx, and QQ/AJ are his most likely holdings.
JT is barely a value bet in hero's distribution - if at all (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AJ, QJ are all better and have better removal). if we're 3b JTs here then we can also reasonably have tons of draws which might be a reason we need to bet JT so that we're not overbluffing turn; or bc our turn bet looks a lot more like a draw than a pair so we can get called lighter. however, our opponent is unlikely to be considering the latter so we can play a lot more straight forward and exploitatively and just bet value and take free cards with draws.
tl;dr I think we have a lot less fold equity than you do.