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<img /3 - Limped 6 way pot - hero fold with 2nd nuts? <img /3 - Limped 6 way pot - hero fold with 2nd nuts?

08-07-2017 , 05:20 PM
Hero ($600) has a solid TAG image. Been at table about 2 hours with villain whole time, but no big pots together yet.

Villain ($500) is solid TAG. Has shown down big hands a few times and no bluffs, but has played few enough hands in general that no major read can be made.

Hero is on the button with J9 suited (not hearts). Villain is BB. 3 calls to hero, hero calls, SB calls and BB checks.

Flop ($18) is TK4 rainbow. Everybody checks.

Turn is Qh (putting 2 hearts on the board). SB checks. Villain bets $20. 3 folds. Hero raises to $70. SB folds. Villain goes all in.

Villain seems tight up to this point, indicating he probably isn't going crazy with air. So, I think there are a few options for what he has.

1) AJ - if he has this, I'm pretty much dead. Just trying to hit one of 3 outs to a chop. He's generally avoided limping with big aces, so I thought if he had this hand, he might try to punish the limpers pf, but checking in the BB with this and seeing a flop isn't unreasonable.

2) Flush draw (likely with an ace in hand giving him draws to a straight). I haven't seen him play like this with a flush draw, but I also don't really have enough information to suggest he wouldn't. I think a flush draw probably flats here and tries to see a free card, but if they think I'm weak for some reason, maybe they try to take it down knowing they have redraws.

3) A set. It's possible they flopped a set and checked hoping someone else would bet and they could go over the top. 4s are most likely, as Ks definitely raise pre and tens possibly do as well (though it's possible tens just flat pre). I think queens are unlikely, as I think he would have raised pre with pocket queens.

Do I put him on AJ here and hero fold or do I make the big call?
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08-07-2017 , 05:34 PM
Snap calling here every time. Your hand is ridiculously disguised. If he's checking behind a limped pot with AJ, then so be it, but I can't range even the tightest of nits to exclusive nuts in this situation. Much more likely that he's picked up a rag 2 pair, and somewhat likely that he checked pre with 44, was looking to trap on the flop, and is now trying to push out flush draws.

If you loose, call it a cooler and move on.
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08-07-2017 , 05:47 PM
I fold every time and probably don't raise turn all the time. It's the kind of spot where you have to start looking at folding AJ without a heart when looking at 2x BI-sized overbets in limped pots with straights on board.
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08-07-2017 , 05:47 PM
Calling yourself and v solid tags is probably up for debate, but given he is probably a decent player I'm just snap folding. It's never a flush draw, your hand is not disguised at all, and at best you're chopping.
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08-07-2017 , 05:51 PM
So you guys are seeing nut straights on this board every time? Even against the best of TAGs in my regular games, they show up with very strong but worse hands a lot of the time.
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08-07-2017 , 05:55 PM
Raise pre.

As played I could see folding being reasonable.
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08-07-2017 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Perm
So you guys are seeing nut straights on this board every time? Even against the best of TAGs in my regular games, they show up with very strong but worse hands a lot of the time.
limped pot + flop checks + turn bway on board + BB 20->500 = Throw cards in the trash can.
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08-07-2017 , 06:01 PM
He shoved 500 into a limped pot, what else could he have
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08-07-2017 , 06:11 PM
Yeah, I guess so. I generally go by the 'don't go broke in a limped pot' mantra, but my analysis is definitely skewed by some of the so-called TAGs in my regular game that show down with far less than the nuts in these situations.
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08-07-2017 , 07:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wck117
Calling yourself and v solid tags is probably up for debate, but given he is probably a decent player I'm just snap folding. It's never a flush draw, your hand is not disguised at all, and at best you're chopping.
I'm not trying to suggest we're both fantastic players or anything. I just mean that we've only been at the table a couple hours, have folded pre most hands, and haven't shown down any bluffs.
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08-07-2017 , 07:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman
Raise pre.

As played I could see folding being reasonable.
I felt very confident that I'd get at least 2 or 3 callers raising pre, which isn't really what I want with J9
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08-07-2017 , 07:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I fold every time and probably don't raise turn all the time. It's the kind of spot where you have to start looking at folding AJ without a heart when looking at 2x BI-sized overbets in limped pots with straights on board.
Wait, what? Folding the nuts just because you're afraid of flush draws?
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08-07-2017 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WehrmatsWormhat
I'm not trying to suggest we're both fantastic players or anything. I just mean that we've only been at the table a couple hours, have folded pre most hands, and haven't shown down any bluffs.
That's not necessarily TAG, but it does lean more towards nit behavior. Given that clarification, I could begrudgingly fold a non-nut hand. Maybe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WehrmatsWormhat
I felt very confident that I'd get at least 2 or 3 callers raising pre, which isn't really what I want with J9
I think you should consider it with J9 given stack sizes and action thus far. There are so many positive outcomes on the flop with position, but it's also easy to get away from.
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08-07-2017 , 07:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Perm
That's not necessarily TAG, but it does lean more towards nit behavior. Given that clarification, I could begrudgingly fold a non-nut hand. Maybe.
It's probably somewhere between the two (nitty and TAG). Honestly, it's sort of hard to describe perfectly how a player is, but I'm doing my best.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Perm
I think you should consider it with J9 given stack sizes and action thus far. There are so many positive outcomes on the flop with position, but it's also easy to get away from.
Yeah, I don't hate the play every now and then, but I don't think it's a play I want to be making too often.
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08-07-2017 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I fold every time and probably don't raise turn all the time. It's the kind of spot where you have to start looking at folding AJ without a heart when looking at 2x BI-sized overbets in limped pots with straights on board.
lol. i guess.
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08-07-2017 , 08:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I fold every time and probably don't raise turn all the time. It's the kind of spot where you have to start looking at folding AJ without a heart when looking at 2x BI-sized overbets in limped pots with straights on board.
That seems excessive...although there could be truth of 70->500 being the nuts. I think nuts usually want a call. Did he overbet on other strong hands he showed down?

Could he be fancy enough to do this with Jxhh? His starting range is so much wider pre due to blinds. Maybe he thinks he can get you to fold 2pr (since you say it's so obvious you're both nits). He still has a lot of outs if he has this hand.

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08-07-2017 , 10:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
I fold every time and probably don't raise turn all the time. It's the kind of spot where you have to start looking at folding AJ without a heart when looking at 2x BI-sized overbets in limped pots with straights on board.
This doesn't feel right to me.

We'd have to get into some non-real-world scenario to have the math justify this on the turn, and we'd need to know our villain holds precisely AhJh, wouldn't we?

I think we'd need to get into some scenario like we hold AsJd on a KhQhTc flop and our opponent is playing AhJh face up to make it work in our favor.
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08-07-2017 , 11:19 PM
I'm telling you what I know from experience:
If you start folding the second nuts your entire game will deteriorate with time. You will start seeing monsters under the bed and soon be folding sets and T2P and at point can say "adios Lolita" to your game because you not gonna have one. I'm serious .. man.., How can you give villain the nuts and nothing else. Why he's got AJ in this situation? Why is that? I would like to know how some dudes put villains on EXACT holdings. Wtf it's going on? - How one become so good at this game and I missed all that knowledge all this time? All those years at the table seems like gone with the wind because I didn't picked up what's most important. Putting villain on the exact goddamned holding on the spot, the cold stone his two pocket hidden cards. ... ... Like I have here in my game some tourists putting me on AK when I bet my Set on the flop and they raise me. haha .. I raise pre with 99 and I get the God's luck into my face and flop a Set of nines. I say; OK, thanks God! .., Now the "outsider" dude puts me on AK and raises me OTF interpreting my flop lead bet as a c/b. haha .., That's a big mistake to put villain on a specific goddamned hand.

....., f*****g A

Last edited by outdonked; 08-07-2017 at 11:43 PM.
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08-08-2017 , 12:31 AM
I'm not sure this is a fold. The read given in the OP is that's V is a solid TAG. If he has the nuts, why would he 3bet blast off from $70 to $500 and blow everyone out the hand?

The line feels more like a combo draw or pair + combo draw trying to fold out two pairs or sets. Which two card are hearts? Is an OESFD out there?
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08-08-2017 , 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittlePud
I'm not sure this is a fold. The read given in the OP is that's V is a solid TAG. If he has the nuts, why would he 3bet blast off from $70 to $500 and blow everyone out the hand?
Yeah agreed. Need more info from OP on how villain played other big hands.

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08-08-2017 , 01:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LittlePud
I'm not sure this is a fold. The read given in the OP is that's V is a solid TAG. If he has the nuts, why would he 3bet blast off from $70 to $500 and blow everyone out the hand?
Seriously? The reason he bet 3b blasted off is exactly because he's a solid TAG.
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08-08-2017 , 01:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Perm
This doesn't feel right to me.

We'd have to get into some non-real-world scenario to have the math justify this on the turn, and we'd need to know our villain holds precisely AhJh, wouldn't we?

I think we'd need to get into some scenario like we hold AsJd on a KhQhTc flop and our opponent is playing AhJh face up to make it work in our favor.
Any single heart will do. If facing an infinite sized bet in this spot, the only hands that have a +EV call are AJ with at least one heart (even if you knew your opponent was bluffing ATC at the same frequency).

Back down here on Earth, the calling requirements are of course far less stringent, but there is just no reliable information here to think that a naked understraight has a +EV call facing a range that is capped at 12 combos of the nuts.

But at the heart of it all, why TF would a solid TAG even consider getting in 500 with <J9 when as many as 32 straight combos are in play... it's not even a betting range it's a 3b range which is almost certainly more narrow than the former. Gameflow would have a say in a spot like this, as would some reliable history. Neither is available in the context of the post and I'll remember to value jam my stack in with the nuts 2002 style next time.
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08-08-2017 , 05:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Seriously? The reason he bet 3b blasted off is exactly because he's a solid TAG.

I don't think he's solid TAG if he bets like hero describes the situation to us. Actually, I'm 100% he's not even a TAG and I'm doing this read from my living room here at home in front of my MacBook. Just looking at hero's history I can tell the read is off. Nothing personal partner ,.., but after only 20 post on 2+2 how can you be so sure villains is a solid TAG that bets $500 into $70 OTT? - Now actually reading the post again the second time I am certain 100% with conviction that villain is not what here tell us. The pot was limped in 4 places. The flop was checked all around check, check, check and check and OTT the goddamned Q pops, hero bets $20 up and villains bets like 25x hero's bet for $500. Over 7x pot size bet. In what world?

Besides, a solid TAG doesn't blow away people OTT with $500 into $70 pot. Who the hell in his right mind is gonna call that? Only fish and real donkeys bet like that because they want to protect some little hand they have like TP and don't want dudes to outdraw him. A solid TAG will value bet villains to death. You can see it and understand what he's doing just by watching him in action. Who in his right mind don't want action if he's solid TAG and has arrived already OTT. Do you think he's got so far on a mediocre hand with TP only? If the Solid TAG gives action OTT he's got beat any overpair including AA. He's either a donkey or he's bluffing with the nuts, so to speak. TAG players don't do that, what they do is they peal street by street little by little in chunks until at the river you get priced in to call and lose. You lose because he dragged you by the hand giving you false hope and finally gives you something you cannot refuse.

Last edited by outdonked; 08-08-2017 at 06:23 AM.
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08-08-2017 , 08:17 AM
V has a straight since he obviously does not want another heart to roll off. Super snap fold. not even close.
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08-08-2017 , 09:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WehrmatsWormhat
I felt very confident that I'd get at least 2 or 3 callers raising pre, which isn't really what I want with J9
So? What's wrong with a multiway single raised pot in position with J9s? Also you can always raise bigger. Make it $30 pre.
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