Line check

V1 (280)- 30 yo white male, loose passive
Hero's Image (300)- 25 yo white male, tag

Preflop (4):
Hero is MP dealt KK
V1 raise to 10 UTG, Hero 3bets to 40, V1 calls.

Flop (80):
873
Checked to Hero who bets 30, V1 thinks a little bit and c/r to 60, Hero calls.

Turn (200):
A
Checked to Hero who bets 40, V1 calls

River (280):
3
Checks through.

I'm guessing you are good on the river as it was played out as such.

You need to bet more on the flop. They have a lower overpair. Get value.

Check turn, value bet river if checked to. (No need to be fancy against a weak loose player)

Every street except preflop could have been played differently here. I don't mind the flat of the c/r on the flop, since you only get value from OESDs by 3betting a loose-passive. The turn bet of $40 reads like a misclick unless you were inducing; otherwise it's a clear c/c. If you wanted to bet/fold turn then you need to bet closer to $100, but I don't see any decent reason to bet/fold since there shouldn't be many Ax in Villain's range. River is clearly a missed value bet, especially with the board pairing, and after you've bet turn; even if you had c/c turn, you could have still led river for 1/3-1/2 pot.

Raise flop to $150

Mmm, V's flat pre looks like mid size pairs (99-JJ, QQ mayyybe) and maybe AQ and AK (unlikely). Basically, most of my bet sizing is going to be directed at this range.

Flop $80
873r

V checks, I bet $45 - aiming to get value from all his pairs which on this flop are all overpairs to the board. I think anywhere from 1/2 - 2/3 pot is the most +ev here imo.

Now given that we bet $30 and V min clicks us, I like the flat. For V, our flat makes QQ+ less likely and therefore makes him more comfortable with his mid-overpairs. I still like betting bigger though.

Turn $200 - Ad
There aren't any Aces in his range unless he's playing AA terribly (which is a possibility, there's just more combos of 99-JJ). I like betting $65-$85 here as I think those are bets that 99-JJ may feel safe calling.

River ($280)
Bet $135.

why bet so small on flop? was it to keep AK-AQ type hands in? Also once he min raises Im not sure why we shouldnt be raising back. If its a bluff with AK then calling gives us some bad RIO since Villain probably wont continue unless he hits an A.

either way, I would be raising bigger on flop, then I would think about 3 betting flop. I guess the turn bet was actually pretty good for value seeing how the hand played out.

Seems like a very odd line by villain and something that we arent going to se very often,

PF needs to be a bit more. Turn bet needs to be much more, 1/5 PSB doesn't accomplish anything.

Bigger otf. Why so small? His continuing range from that size to a standard size is probably very inelastic.

As played, Id probably 3 bet the flop. Villain has a lot of 99-JJ, maybe 8x he probably isnt going to fold, plus over cards on the turn/river may kill our action.

I'd probably value bet the river small as played also

Pf is fine, bet like 65 otf

Vs the chr, I hate 3b calling and I hate 3b folding

I'd bet more ott and otr

Im betting around half pot ott and betting river as well.

Ty for the replies.

My plan was to bet small otf to induce, I call the c/r to continue the story. Clicking it back would look really strong, still might be a good play.

With less than tp I tend to try and pot control by checking either turn or river. I might have been able to squeeze out 60 in value. I also am betting small incase villain is planning to c/r again.

I check river because villain could be trapping and will probably fold less than an ace most of the time.

Results-

Dude its 1/2, don't worry about inducing when you are missing value

I like a small 3bet on the flop, as played maybe like 55 on river. Depends just how loose he is obv. I expect to see 99-QQ here a lot.

Yes.

I'm cool with the 3bet preflop. I also like the fact we got a bigger than normal 3bet in here thanks to us knowing that an EP opener is just so unlikely to fold.

SPR is under 3, board doesn't have an A and is non-******ed. We're 100% committed here. Even though board isn't very drawy, I still bet on the large side so that I can play for stacks on the turn. This is especially true because QQ-99 is never folding the flop, but they may be able to hero fold the turn if an overcard comes. I would bet ~$70 so that I have an easy turn shove.

I guess our smallish flop bet was to induce a raise? Although I guess this minraise could be a "where am I am" test. I don't despise the flat cuz we'll be able to get stacks in on the turn, and it's possible villain makes a hero fold if we shove now if it was a "where am I at" test. Although I'm still wary of an overcard falling to kill our action.

I don't think the A changes anything except for the fact that now we're less likely to be able to get paid off. I mean, did he really min check/raise the flop with AK? No, he didn't. So we're still ahead (or were crushed all along vs AA and were going to lose our stack anyways). At this point, I'm still cool with playing for stacks. However, I think a shove here is just less likely to get paid off. So I'd try to get stacks in with a smallish bet on the turn and the rest on the river. He has $180 left, I'd probably bet $60 on the turn and get the rest of it on the river.

Have to get the rest in on the river. I just think it's so unlikely he has an A here given the way the hand played out. Missed value, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Thanks for the input all. I am surprised most are still in favor of betting AI even when the ace hits. I have my doubts that villain would call 100+ otr with less than tp.