Villain (MP): 30 ish white guy, tight passive ($275)
Hero (EP): late 20s Asian guy, TAG image (covers)

Hero is about to table change - racking up chips and looks down at KK:diamond. Hero makes it $15. Villain calls, SB calls.

Flop: T73 ($44)

SB checks. Hero bets $25. Villain calls, SB folds.

Turn: 4 ($93)

Hero bets $65. Villain calls.

River: Q ($223)

Hero ???

Villain has less than pot behind. Any bet from me will be all in. QT beats me now, backdoored clubs beat me, along with any slowplayed two pairs and sets. However villain can have AT, some combos KT since I double block it, JT, T9. Since I'm OOP I don't need to be good 50% of the time when called. If I check and he bets anything not tiny I likely have to fold since Tx is probably snap checking behind. Shove or x/f?

V is passive so I think checking doesn't make much sense, as he is unlikely to turn a hand like 89 or 99 into a bluff.

ORT, b/f for 80ish

I suggest going back and reading the "Theory of Poker." Betting out on the river is different than calling. The calculation is different.

When you make a value bet on the river, you have to be good over 50% of the time against his calling range. Especially against a tight passive player. The reason is that if you are ahead, you've already won the money in the pot. It doesn't add to your total. Your only consideration is the extra money to put in the pot.

For example, assume you make a bet of $100 and are only 40% to win against his calling range. If he folds, you win nothing extra (because he would check behind if you checked). So your EV is -$20 for this bet.

This isnt really accurate math either. Assuming your calling a river all in (you probably should), whether to make a river bet is dependent upon if youre >50% vs the portion of his range that is checking back the river.

I think it was in Applications of NLH where it was mentioned that even if you're < 50% when called, betting sometimes denies him the chance to bluff when checked to which makes betting more +EV than checking. Of course when in position, it would just be stupid since checking back would always be more +EV. Could be wrong though someone correct me if I am.

If we're expecting a raise to often thin the field, I'm ok with preflop. I'd mostly limp/reraise at my loose tables.

Flop is fairly dry except for some straight draws. Villain is probably fairly ABC non-bluffy. I'm either/or on the this flop. I'm fine with a bet/fold for a smallish amount (I wouldn't go any more than what we did), but I'm also fine with checking. Overall, the SPR is a small 6 and yet we gave 2 opponents about 20:1 to stack us, so we really shouldn't be looking to play for stacks in this case, and betting does make it much easier to play for stacks (we're perfectly fine with a street checking thru, imo).

What does villain think of us? Are we barrelling air here a lot? Or are we only showing up with the goods when we're betting 3 or 4 streets? If we're betting the turn, I would typically bet a lot less, like no more than a 1/2 PSB; if any of the draws come in (especially the OESD) we can likely check/fold, and if we're raised we can fold. Also don't hate checking.

The problem with how we played the hand, imo, is that all our rather face up betting has left us with just a 3/4 PSB left behind where you can argue we're committed (and yet we've given good IO preflop). But this is part of the problem of (a) being OOP and (b) getting into even just a 3way pot (where commitment problems arise almost instantly). Against a passive player who is never raising worse, we can perhaps make an incredibly exploitive bet/fold here for like a 'same bet" just targetting Tx.

GcluelessNLnoobG

So I fire a third barrel here to get value from AT/KT/JT and maybe even 99/88. Too many V's are just going to check behind with all these hands so I think that range is large enough that a bet is in order.

I discount sets here as we would have heard from them on the turn given stack sizes. And BD clubs...what draw OTF could he have that have clubs make sense (other than specifically AT,98 or even more remote 65)?

I would be $80ish and most likely call a shove.

I'd bet ~$100 and hope for a sigh call. If he raises, it kind of sucks, but not sure you can fold.

I'm down with $100 bet, but why can't we fold if he raises? I know pot odds, but are you saying V could be bluffing or value-owning himself. Neither seem remotely likely for this V.

Grunch
First instinct was to jam.
Just way more A10, K10, J10, 910s, 810s then there is 2pair+

If we give credit for being able to resist raising a set then he calls a river jams with
9 sets, 9 Q10, 1 107s (discounted, maybe he always folds it pre, dunno)
19 combos
and
12 A10, 12 K10, and a few of his other 10's will also sigh call, so say 25-30 combos

Looks like a good stuff to me.

If V is never value-owning himself, I guess we can fold, but it's only $85 more and seems so wrong.

I hate tiny bets, but maybe this is the time to bet/fold $75.

The other option is to check/call. Hero is racking up. Maybe V thinks H is full of it and will fire at the river with AT, etc.

That racking up does play into a lot of people's minds and can affect how they play. Who knows if V is one of them. Maybe the shove would work if he is, though. I'd actually like to know how big H's stack is -- that can affect mentality when a player is racking up, too.

Bet just enough to get a crying call from his Tx. Maybe 60-80$. Call any raise.

I had around $500. Why bet/call? What bluffs will he have that think I would fold getting such a good price? I'm still either in the shove or x/f to any non-tiny bet camp. No way AT is shoving unless it's ATcc.

What do you beat when a tight-passive 1/3 live player river jams on you here? Let it go.

This is a very villain dependent spot but I don't hate the $80 bet assuming villain plays ultra straight forward on the river. A tight player doesn't have a lot of QT here which would be the biggest hand we're afraid of, and I would have expected a set to raise by now. We can safely fold to a shove also.

Checking isn't terrible either if we think V doesn't have much of a calling range on this river, but I think tens will often call a smaller bet here.

The third barrel is player and villain dependent, best action will depend on both players tendencies.

How much do you have on river..?

Why only shove or check/fold? check/call should also be considered,

What hands do you think V will call it off with that you beat?

How often do you think V will bet river if checked to that you beat?

Do you think V will bluff missed draws like 89 if checked to?

Shoving or check/call are very close. Given I think you only have 100 or less behind I'm not folding here.

I will say tho without a good live read it is very tuff to put V on a hand here.

Good questions.

There's slightly less than pot effective on the river.

I don't really consider check call since any Tx is snap checking back so what do I really beat? Even a 1/4 pot bet puts me in a bad spot cause he has so few bluffs.

Mainly Tx can call a shove, although it's probably better to bet/fold and not worry that a tougher villain could turn weak SDV into a bluff if he suspects we're going thin value with that sizing cause it's 1/3.

If checked to, villain will likely check back all hands I beat and bet hands QT or better.

98 is one of the few bluffs villain has. And it's certainly possible he may bluff it when checked to. However it's 1/3 and people aren't bluffing often enough usually for the pot odds to be good.

So in conclusion, probably bet/fold 80-100. Betting smaller (especially smaller than the turn bet) is just screaming weakness since I'm definitely not doing that with nutted often enough. And given how much I'd be advertising my weakness even a 1/3 player might just bluff shove.