Not to be mean, but there's so much wrong with this post..
Quote:
agreed, except i'd shove now instead of waiting to see if the river is scary.
If we think that he will call a shove now with Jx or draws (QT, T8) 4
X
if he floated the flop and picked up a flush draw, then yes we should shove for fat value. Also, if we are planning to make this a two street hand we should bet more on the flop to set our selves up with a more favorable stack to pot ratio and make it easier for him to call it off. We should have bet an extra $10 - $15. Little things can make a differnce.
However we do
not want to shove for fear of a bad river card. That sort of thinking loses us value. We make a play based on the board now, his likely holdings, what we think that he will call with hands that we are ahead of, and what we think that he will fold that we are losing to. Then when the next street comes along, we make the same analysis. We can't live in fear of 'scary river cards' and try to end hands just out of that fear.
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you have the best hand, don't make it profitable to draw out
Yes, this is correct. We do not want to make it profitable to draw out.
If he has a J, he can't get the right odds for any reasonable bet that we make. He has 5 outs max and maybe only 2 (if he has JT for example), and as long as we don't give him a combination of 10:1 implied + direct odds, then we are fine. That's almost impossible. If he has a straight draw with QT then he he has 4 outs, and 2 of the 'outs' that he thinks that he has will give us a boat, and we are 100% getting his stack if that's the case. So, we need to deny him ~9:1 odds. If he has T8 then he has 8 outs, so we need to deny him ~6:1 odds. If he has 4
X
he has 11 outs, so we need to deny him 5:1 odds. The only hand that he can have that has significant equity is T
8
and that's just 1 combo out of a range of hands that has at least 30 other combos in it. So, we are not going to target that specific on.
The point of all this is that if we give him 3:1 direct odds now, and 1:1 implied odds later (which is actually closer to .8:.8 odds since we won't even have a full bet left, then we are not giving him the right odds to draw out with the vast majority of his range.
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if he folds, $75 is plenty value out of KK in 1/3.
This is just not true.
'plenty of value' is not a term that you should have in your vocabulary if you are trying to up your game and play as well as you can at whatever stakes you choose to play. (1c/2c, $1/$2, $25/$50, it doesn't matter.)
If we can get a max of $75 from villains worse hands no matter how we play, then yes we are happy to get $75, but if we can get $350 and we only get $75, then we have just left $275 on the table. That's money that we could have had. It's fine to win a big pot, and it's fine to win a small pot. Sometimes that's just how it goes. But if we have an opportunity to win a bigger pot by playing our cards well, we should strive to win more money.
If you are just here for the fun of the game, that's fine. Everyone plays for their own reasons, but I encourage you to try not to think about as 'plenty'.