Been at table for a while now, perhaps 6 hours. About to leave in my mind.
I have $500 on the table and into the game for $600. Been super tight since losing first two bullets. V shouldn't have seen me play many hands besides when I flopped top set and when i flopped two pair and backdoor flush draw... in the last 3 hours.

$1/3

H: Young asian guy, $500 stack.
V: late 20s indian guy, been super tight, havent really played many hands, he tank called with AK in position on the river in a 3bet pot on an AQ5r7A board against another player for his stack. $600

H picks up K9cc in c/o, 4 limpers before him. H flats the $3. Btn makes it $20. I assign a range of premium hands. AK/AQ/AJ/TT+. 3 limpers call, hero completes. (Best relative position/$17 to $125 immediate odds)... its prob thin/bad

Flop is: Tc8s7c
everyone checks to me, i check, v bets $105.
At this point, I'm thnking he has a big big pocket pair and will prob go with it if i ship, and im not really that happy flipping for 200b... I'm not sure.
Perhaps I should just ship and he might fold all big pocket pairs.
Also with his large sizing, and the general population tendencies, his hand is most liekly extremely strong in my opinion. Even TT sometimes here. I think this v would limp 88/77.

turn: Th
H check, he checks very quickly.

River: Qs
Hero?


Please talk about every single street!

I am phish

Raise the first time around preflop, but much more importantly, you need to bet the turn. The T pairing is extremely strong for you.

Pre is fine. I'd probably overlimp with K9s too. I don't think raising gets you HU or 3-way with 4 limpers+btn+blinds to go. I think K9s is too weak to play what will likely be a large multiway pot, even in position.

Great flop and I would plan to c/r. Villain makes a PSB and folds everyone else out. I think you can ship it right here. You'd be raising $380 into a pot of $315, so it's not a crazy overbet when you shove. You can also min-raise and ship all turns. I prefer gii on the flop because you have 55% equity vs. AA and 40% vs. sets.

As played, I'd bomb the turn. You have a ton of FE because calling the flop PSB then shoving the turn looks super strong. You still have at least 30-40% equity against overpairs.

Tough river decision (one that could be avoided by playing stronger on the flop). I'd probably bluff about $150 because K-high is almost never winning a SD. It's possible V has something like AK, AJ, 99 that would fold.

I'm ok overlimping Kxs in a multiway pot in LP. Even though we are getting good odds and closing the action, I'd fold to the raise since we can't really make many nuttish hands (the second nut flush and the second nut straight on a QJT board can cost us our stack). I'd probably sigh call with Axs and hands that are less likely to make second best ~nuttish hands.

With $200 in the pot and just $480 behind, this pot is worth winning, so I'm check/shoving. Even adding just a little bit of FE helps out, and we're doing quite well if called (especially if up against hands like QQ/JJ and with the huge dead money offsetting "flips"). I agree that we run into TT a decent amount (this is a scary board for AA), but even in this worst case we're not doing too poorly.

As played, easy check/fold on the river, imo. There's a decent chance he turned quads or boated up on the river, or checked the turn at some attempt at pot control (where he's never folding to a bet as there are too many busted draws on this board). Betting only folds out AJcc, which is way too thin a range to target.

ETA: I'd be more for betting the turn in like a limped pot with huge stacks behind, with the threat of a double barrel on the river for big money. Here, we don't have much more than a PSB left and none of the draws have gotten there, I'm not convinced he's folding very often.

GcluelessNLnoobG

These hands are betting a PSB on the flop 5ways?

The only unmade hand that doesn't improve that is bombing the flop is AJcc, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Just jam the flop, if he ever folds it's a huge victory and when he calls off with over pairs we will have >50% equity

OP doesn't give a description of V's postflop betting tendencies. It's possible 'super tight' preflop players bet AcKx 5-way. Some think because they're so tight, they need to win every pot they raise preflop. Maybe not likely, but possible.

V previously tank called the river on a super dry board with trips As top kicker. He seems mubsy. Villain likely got scared after his cbet didn't work and quickly checked the turn. I can see him folding JJ and worse on the river.

Looking at V's river calling range: If we give V a range of AcJx+/99+, he calls a river bet with AcQ/QQ+/TT and folds AcK/AcJ/JJ/99. That's 16 calls and 16 folds. If we narrow V's range to AQcc/AJcc/99+, that's 14 calls (AQcc/QQ+/TT) and 10 folds (AJcc/JJ/99). If we eliminate 99, it's 14 calls and 7 folds.

I'd fire a 1/2 pot bet on the river since there is a 0% chance OP wins a showdown, imo. Seems like this villain might fold a decent chunk of his range.

I don't think c/f is bad though. Again, part of the reason to play big draws more aggressively on the flop and turn is to avoid these river decisions.

I agree that some raisers will cbet air here very multiway (which is terribly loose / aggro on this board, imo). Given your opinion of Villain above (which I agree with), I just don't see him being that guy.

GimoG

This.

/thread.

Why didn't all the money go in on the flop?

We get a T hi wet flop that misses your range given to V ( Rather, it only improves 3 combos of TT and 2 combos of A hi club draws [AQcc and AJcc]. Be careful assigning too tight of a range for Vs, but you're the one playing in this game, so we will use your range).

Say V only raises with TT+, AJ+ pre. Then on a T87cc flop he is left with 15 combos of over pairs QQ+ (we block 3 combos of KK), 6 combos of JJ which is overpair+gutshot, 3 combos of TT, 42 combos of A hi (again we block 4 combos of AK), and 2 combos of nut flush draws. How many of these combos do you believe are calling if you c/rai on the flop?

Is he calling with top set? Yes. 3 combos

Is he calling with over pairs? Probably not all of them, but we will say all for now. 15 combos

Is he calling with JJ? Maybe. we will say yes for now. 6

Is he calling with the nut flush draw? Again maybe. Let's go with yes. 2 combos.

How about naked A hi hands? Probably not. In fact, I'd say very close to never, but to prove my point, let's say that 1 out of 6 times he calls with A hi (he won't call that often, DUCY?). 7 combos

That leaves us 33 combos that are calling our shove versus 35 combos that are folding. Our all in would be a little over a pot sized bet, so we need V to fold a tad over 50% for our shove to be break-even or better, assuming our hand has 0 equity. Here's the beauty: our hand has pretty damn good equity against this range. So, not only is V folding often enough for us to profit with any two cards as a bluff, but we actually hold a hand with great equity when he does happen to call.

You're spotting V a pretty premium range pre, but that range sucks on a flop texture like this. It sucks even worse when stacks go into play. Couple that with your belief that V is maybe a little nitty and you have me salivating over the thought of shoving this flop. I'd bet he folds something closer to 42-45 of the 78 combos we gave him, maybe even more. So, check the flop, then cram it in the middle on him and enjoy this massively +EV situation you haphazardly landed in.

Why do you call 17$ more if you assign a range of premiums? Bomb flop IMO. After you call though I'd x turn and x/f river. Your chance IMO was on the flop.

Yeah, at the table, I had planned to c/r when he c-bet, but his large-ish cbet threw me off and hence in my confusion/panic I elected to throw the plan out the window (im phish).

Looking back at the numbers, I pretty much should just always c/r flop because of the strength of my draw.

Based on description of villian, and his cbet sizing he is not folding to c/r often, but just pure equity wise you're fine to c/gambol here. Probably going to open preflop or dumping after villains open.

Hero is bad.

Hero leads $180 into V.
V tanks for ages and ends up calling with 58dd.

First time I've seen him open wide... and then this pot plays out.

I should've just went with it on the flop, I stuffed up by electing to call instead of shoving, I was pretty much going to be a coin flip with dead money at worse but panicked.