Quote:
Originally Posted by zukes2000
In this case I am concerned that by checking the flop I risk V checking back with overcards that would have folded, losing value against small pairs that will fold to bets on scarecards on turn/river, but I will have to call at least one or two bets from hands that beat me.
Admittedly, the smaller our pair the more checking brings the downside of an overcard coming.
But if he has two overcards, he only has 6 outs, so only about a 7:1 chance he hits. We're still way ahead, although there will be cards we cringe at.
If he has an underpair or undercards, he's got 2 outs or almost drawing dead, and he'll often fold some of these if we bet the flop. We're perfectly fine checking and getting him to bluff / think his hand is good and bet, or perhaps having the flop check thru and him getting curious with his pair (which he might make on the turn) and pay off a bet or two with a weak hand and later streets. Although, yeah, we do risk some scare cards that may scare him off (such as an Ace where it looks like we've now hit our AK).
If he has a T or boat or slowplayed bigger overpair, we're drawing very slim. Don't want any bets going in on the flop.
If we bet the flop and he calls or raises, we're almost in the same spot, in that we probably aren't too fond of more bets going in (and are kinda hoping the turn goes check/check).
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