Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,423
Bet bigger on the flop. This board is wet and we are ahead most of the time. He's not folding Tx, flush draw, straight draws, gutshots , or possibly even a sticky middle pair, so go full pot. Even AK, AQ gets sticky here.
Turn is a bad card. Hearts got there. You would think he would bet flop with a heart draw, but as these stakes I'm not giving my opponent enough credit to semi-bluff aggressively. They are much more likely to play it passive. I would need to have seem him do it or see this guy c-betting at a really high frequency all night. I've seen plenty of guys that I think are good LAGs at first, end up just being really bad button clickers.
Also,54 and 76 are now ahead of us. Plus, he can now fold Tx if we bet again and he doesn't have a heart. He could have 65, but he probably folds that now that the heart draw came in.
I would check the turn. We can always get thin value on safe rivers from 10x if he checks to us. Or we can set up a bluff catch spot against a button clicker.
River could be a blocking bet with 10x enough times to just call it off getting 4.5 to 1. Also, just call for meta-game. I want to see his cards, and I don't want to be a pushover that folds to $20 river bets.
Raise could work, but you're line looks FOS. I'd expect a 1/3 V to call with Ax here a lot. I don't give my opponents a lot of credit to make laydowns. Especially a guy that I think is clicking buttons.
Last edited by bodybuilder32; 10-06-2018 at 08:12 PM.